This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Futures: MLB Picks for AL MVP, NL MVP, AL ROY, NL ROY and More
I've been hammering out my College Baseball picks for the past month plus, but I'm putting that off to the side today in favor of how I am approaching my favorite MLB futures bets for the 2024 season. The list may grow a bit closer to Opening Day, but for now, come take a ride with me.
I will say, a lot of the awards I am listing should be approached differently. There are a lot of players at the top of the board, so value in the number is hard to come by. The best strategy for a lot of these markets will be to wait and see how the first month or so unfolds.
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AL MVP
Julio Rodriguez (+1000)
I dilly-dallied a bit on these futures in an effort to gear up harder for college, so the 15/1 you could have gotten on J-Rod was gobbled up. Rodriguez is one of my favorite players in baseball. He was my AL ROY pick at 6/1 in 2022. This is a great example of a player I am waiting on. He's been a notoriously slow starter. In his rookie campaign, Julio didn't really start flashing his potential until May. April was a brutal start where he hit only .205 with no homers, while striking out 30 times to seven walks. From April-June of '23, Julio managed 13 homers and just a .237 average, while compiling a 97 K/26 BB ratio.
Maybe year three will be different for the Mariners' superstar, but 10/1 is a bit too short for the solid chance that he starts off a snail pace again. I would look into investing if and when that May or June surge kicks in at a much more favorable price. After ending last season with 32 bombs, 103 RBI's, and 37 stolen bases, we have truly seen what kind of ceiling he has once he starts putting it all together.
Royce Lewis (+4000)
2023 was a great rookie season for Lewis, who managed 15 home runs and a .309 average in just 58 games. Even with such a small sample size, it's evident that this is the kind of player that will make a huge splash once he racks up a full season.
Laden with power and contact, Rolls Royce Lewis has the ability to rack up some big time numbers in a capable Twins' lineup. I'm not a huge analytics guy, but it helps to know he tallied a .354 BABIP (league average was .293) and a 42% hard-hit rate (league average was 39%) a season ago.
Lewis isn't as much of a household name at the moment, but that's why his 40/1 price makes him a great buy with the kind of tools he has coming into year two. In the first half of 2023, he tallied a .326 batting average and .827 OPS. In a division with weak pitching overall, it wouldn't be surprising to see him notched 35 long balls and 110 RBI while hitting in the .320's. There aren't too many better buys than this dude.
Wyatt Langford (+30000)
I know what you're thinking. There's no way a rookie will win this award. I get it, this feat hasn't been accomplished since 2001 when Ichiro did it. The thing is, I've been watching Wyatt Langford play at Florida since day one. There isn't a single person in this industry of betting and fantasy who knows Langford better than me. I was the first person in the media to say he's the next Mike Trout (in March of 2023). The dominance he has shown in the minors and spring training since turning pro has done nothing to reassure me. Trout came in second place as a rookie in 2012, and would have won if Miguel Cabrera didn't win the first triple crown in nearly 50 years.
By now, Langford has become uber-popular and is all over everybody's radar. I ran a total on all of his stats from his last two years in college, along with his entire 2023 minor league tally, and it is IMPRESSIVE. In those 174 games, he amassed a .363 average with 57 taters, 150 RBI, 28 stolen bases, 192 runs, 54 doubles, and 1.201 OPS. At any level, those are insane numbers, but he did it playing against the best of the best at every level. After the laughable spring training campaign he's put together with a .378 average, five homers, and 17 RBI, he's likely going to be on the big league roster for Opening Day, or soon after.
When I was in Vegas for Wild Card Weekend, I grabbed him at 500/1 at Caesars just because I knew what kind of player he would be. In a year where anybody can win this award, it's not as far-fetched as you think. This may be the only time ever in Langford's career you'll be able to get this absurd of a price. If he plays at least 140 games this season I think there's a real chance he'll be in the MVP mix.
It wouldn't be surprising to see if rookie season end with north of a .320 batting average, 30+ homers, 30+ steals, 90+ runs, and 90+ RBI's. Only about once a decade do we see a guy like this come along. Don't be afraid to fire away because he's coming into year one.
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NL MVP
Bryce Harper (+1200)
The NL MVP market is even more top-heavy than the AL. Three of the top four players in the odds market wear Dodger blue. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Shohei Ohtani are all great candidates, but the fear is they could take away from each other. With Shohei not pitching this season, he needs a monster offensive showing to win this award. +950 is not bad, but I'm looking in a different direction right now.
Harper has always been a monster, but once he came to Philly, he seems to be rejuvenated. After being saddled with the recovery from Tommy John surgery last year, the two-time MVP is all systems go in 2024. That 2021 MVP season with the Phillies is definitely repeatable when he smashed 35 bombs, 43 doubles, and had a .309 average in only 141 contests. The reason for this play is you know what you get with Bryce. An extremely high ceiling in a great offense, while playing in a hitter's park, plus the cache of his name and resume.
It's so difficult to repeat, which is why I am laying off Ronald Acuna Jr. at 5/1. All of the top dogs on the board have teammates that can take away votes. Yes, Harper has a competitive teammate with Trea Turner, but this is a spot where I would take my chances.
Cy Young Odds
The AL and NL Cy Young awards are even more brutal in terms of too much cluster at the top of the board. The AL Cy Young odds feature 13 candidates inside 30/1, which is laughable. My dark horse was going to be Cole Ragans before he got smashed into oblivion and settled at 14/1.
The NL Cy Young odds have 14 players inside 30/1. I wouldn't feel comfortable giving out any true picks at the moment. The best course of action is to wait until the season is underway. The perfect example was Blake Snell, who was north of 60/1 at certain points in the middle of last year. Candidates will eventually start to separate, so the best time to buy is not preseason.
AL Rookie of the Year
Wyatt Langford (+400)
This was another case of waiting too long. Once Langford went on a tear in Spring Training, the odds basically were cut in half. 4/1 isn't a great price in the AL Rookie of the Year odds, but if I think this kid will be an MVP candidate, then he most definitely is my play for rookie of the year. He'll have a lot of stiff competition, especially with his teammate Evan Carter, who was a key contributor for the Rangers' World Series run. Of course, there's also Jackson Holliday, who has proven to be ready to take the next step. I just think Langford is in a class by himself.
Nolan Schanuel (+3500)
One of the most difficult parts about evaluating this award is the timeline for rookies to make it to the show. Every player and organization is different about this philosophy. One guy we're pretty sure makes the Opening Day roster is the Angels' first basemen, Nolan Schanuel. After being called up on August 18th of last year, roughly five weeks after being drafted 11th overall out of FAU, the Angels decided he was ready.
Another guy I enjoyed watching in college, Schanuel possessed a rare hit tool to go with some power. His .447 average in college last season was second in the nation, only to West Virginia's JJ Wetherholt (a likely top-five 2024 draft pick, maybe even first overall). The .275 average across 109 at-bats as a pro was solid, even though he managed only one home run.
There should be a bit of an advantage to getting extensive reps at the MLB level in this award. It's basically a free trial since he didn't count as a rookie. Chances are he won't match the power numbers that some of the other guys in this market have, but if he's hitting in the .310's it would put him in contention. For a guy that can hit as well as he can, it's too big of a price to not sprinkle on.
NL Rookie of the Year
It's a shame that we're not getting a full season from some of the greats of this class like Dylan Crews, Paul Skenes, and Cade Horton. Out of all the NL offensive winners since 2017, all of them played at least 130 games with the exception of Michael Harris. Since 2015, Devin Williams was the only arm to win. This year is a bit on the pitching-heavy side, so there's value in certain bats.
Jackson Chourio (+750)
To be honest, I don't usually follow high school or international players like I do college ones. However, Jackson Chourio is that rare blend of power and speed. Across AA and AAA last season, he tanked 22 Jimmy Jacks and stole 44 bags, while batting a solid .283. It was announced he will be apart of the Opening Day roster, which gives him a big edge in securing more playing time and stats.
The big competitor is Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the prized Japanese free agent from the Dodgers. Coming in with all the hype and profile he has will be tough to beat with biased writers, but there's no reason to lay +170 with him. Pitching in Japanese baseball vs. American baseball is very different, so I need to see it first. Chourio provides a nice edge at the current number.
Obviously, the big bugaboo with him is the galling strikeout numbers. In his last two minor league seasons, he's notched an eye-popping 222 punchouts to only 75 walks. The truth is, though, most rookies feature high K rates. But if Chourio is a 20/20 guy, while batting at least .275, then he'll have a good shot to be in the running here.
Paul Skenes (+4000)
I know what I said. Skenes is probably the most anticipated pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg, so voters will be dying to give him this award if he logs the time. The Pirates have come out and said he won't start in the bigs right away, and I agree with that. He does have a few boxes to check. But I've seen his leap in real-time from seeing him at Air Force in '22 when he topped out at 98 MPH to him sitting 98 at LSU last year. I can confidently say I watched literally every start he made at LSU, and he got away with some things that he wouldn't at the major league level.
Skenes didn't really start tuning that changeup until the end of the year after relying on a fastball-slider combo. He's made real progress in rounding out his game over the last six months. Chances are he shows the brass what they need to see for him to be brought up at some point in the near future. There's a shot we see him by June. He is the kind of pitcher who can rack up enough numbers in an abbreviated season to cement himself in the NL ROY conversation.
If he starts drifting past 40/1 at some point in the next couple months, and you haven't heard anything negative, then buy it. If we're in June say, and there's word he's coming up, this number will be shattered. Like Langford, everybody decided to become an expert on Paul Skenes during the NCAA Tournament last June. Take it from me, there's only small tweaks he has to make before he takes the show by storm. Not bad for a taste if lightning does strike.
Check out my team predictions over the next week to see who I believe has a shot to make a run for the title in 2024!
