This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: MLB Picks and Props for Wednesday, September 11
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2024 Regular Season Betting Record: 12-10 (+1.20 RW Bucks)
2024 Regular Season Props Betting Record: 32-29 (+5.97 RW Bucks)
I'll aim to extend what has been a 12-1 run over the last three weeks with some bets on an intriguing pitching matchup in a late-night interleague battle between postseason contenders.
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners Best Bets
The Mariners have been one of the majors' more confounding teams this season, and their inconsistency has already cost long-time manager Scott Servais his job. Seattle remains very much in contention for an American League Wild Card spot, but its bats continue to often underwhelm, even as there's been a slight hint of improvement since the switch at hitting coach to franchise legend Edgar Martinez.
The M's can especially look overmatched when they face a quality starter, and that's their scenario Wednesday night as Michael King takes the hill for San Diego. The hard-throwing right-hander has been outstanding during a breakout 2024 campaign, furnishing a 12-8 mark accompanied by a 3.10 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 10.6 K/9. King comes at hitters with a five-pitch arsenal and has generated batting averages against of .228 or lower on three of them.
King has also been at his best on the road despite his pitcher-friendly home park, as he's posted an 8-3 record, 2.86 ERA and 1.18 WHIP across 85 innings when traveling. He's given both handedness of hitter trouble as well, holding lefty bats to a .225 average and right-handed hitters to a .221 average. In terms of hitters he's expected to face Wednesday, King has had some issues with veteran Justin Turner from the latter's days with the Dodgers, but he's otherwise mostly found success against the rest of Seattle's projected lineup. The fact the Mariners also have an American League-high 27.2 percent strikeout rate at home against righties in the second half of the season certainly brightens King's overall outlook.
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The Mariners counter with quality starter Bryan Woo, who boasts a 7-2 record, 2.36 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. He's pitched to a tiny 1.50 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and 0.4 HR/9 in 42 home frames. Woo also has an unblemished 4-0 mark at T-Mobile Park and hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in a home turn all season. The Padres certainly field a quality lineup and have been tough against right-handed pitching on the road in the second half (.287 average, .347 wOBA, +24.7 wRAA), so Woo will be challenged; nevertheless, he's proven highly capable of avoiding big back-breaking hits consistently when toeing the rubber at home.
King does have occasional trouble with the long ball and San Diego has metrics to support the notion of them putting a few runs on the board. However, the projected total for this game is a low 6.5 runs at some sportsbooks, underscoring the faith of oddsmakers in these two starters, not to mention the lack of it in the Mariners' offense.
I'm going to lean in that direction myself for the most part with my bets, going with the prospect of a lower-scoring affair with my two game picks. However, I'll throw in one wager in my props that will give credence to Turner, who checks into the night with a .333 average, 1.028 OPS and minuscule 9.5 percent strikeout rate in his last 10 games, staying hot with at least one impactful hit against King, who he owns a .750 average against in five plate appearances.
MLB Best Bets for Padres vs. Mariners
- Under 3.5 Runs F5 (-110 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Neither Team to Score 5 Runs (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Michael King Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+112 on BetRivers Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Justin Turner Over 0.5 Singles (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Justin Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases (+220 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
