This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
It's a breezy evening for MLB on Thursday. We only have five games on the slate, with the first pitch coming at 6:45 p.m. ET. The playoffs are on the horizon, but for now here is another batch of MLB DFS recommendations.
Pitching
Bryce Miller, SEA vs. TEX ($9,200): Kumar Rocker is making his MLB debut for the Rangers, which will draw all the attention. However, from a DFS perspective, Miller is who catches my eye. At home, he has a 2.03 ERA and 0.5 HR/9 rate. The Rangers, one season after winning the World Series, are in the bottom 10 in runs scored. Plus, all things considered, I feel like the fact the opposition is starting a guy making his MLB debut gives Miller a better chance of winning.
Gavin Williams, CLE vs. TAM ($7,400): This one is about the matchup. Williams has struggled in his sophomore season after having a 3.29 ERA in 16 starts as a rookie. However, the Rays are 28th in runs scored and within striking distance of the Marlins in 29th. If you want to save some salary, give Williams a shot.
Top Targets
Debuting as a top prospect, James Wood ($5,300) has shown he still needs to make some strides as a hitter. He puts the ball on the ground too often, so much so his .367 on-base percentage (OBP) and .416 slugging percentage are fairly close. On the other hand, he has a .367 OBP. Darren McCaughan has mostly been a minor-league pitcher, but the Marlins have given the 28-year-old a chance. The reason he's spent so much time in the minors, though, is that he has a career 7.28 ERA at MLB.
Last season, Josh Lowe ($4,900) had 20 homers and 32 stolen bases. While he has nine home runs and 23 swiped bags in 2024, he's only played in 89 games because of injuries. The lefty has a .732 OPS versus righties, and also a .774 OPS on the road. I know I am willing to roll the dice on Gavin Williams, but he has a 5.25 ERA this season. His career ERA at home is 4.88 for good measure.
Bargain Bats
It's been something of a lost season for Anthony Rizzo ($3,400) but the lefty is at home to face a right-handed pitcher on Thursday. Since 2022, he has a .792 OPS at home. Cooper Criswell has gotten a chance to be a regular starter for the first time in his MLB career, but it has been enough of a struggle at times he's pitched in relief on several occasions, too. In total he has a 4.11 ERA this year. In his career, lefties have hit .274 against him.
Interestingly, Mike Yastrzemski ($3,100) has paired his 15 homers with nine triples. He's struggled on the road, but in San Francisco, he has a .829 OPS, including slugging .479. Frankie Montas has a 3.92 ERA in seven starts with the Brewers, compared to a 5.01 ERA with the Reds. All in all, he's allowed lefties to hit .273 against him.
Stack to Consider
Brewers at Giants (Hayden Birdsong): William Contreras ($5,000), Brice Turang ($4,600), Jackson Chourio ($4,400)
Through the minors, and now in the majors, Birdsong knows how to rack up strikeouts. Unfortunately, all those punchouts are paired with other metrics, such as walks and home runs. The righty has a woeful 6.06 BB/9 rate and a 1.73 HR/9 rate. That has given him a 5.40 FIP through 12 MLB starts. He's a righty, but notably, seven of the 10 home runs he's allowed have come from right-handers, in fewer at-bats. Thus, I have two righties in this stack.
With a career .356 OBP, Contreras is elite at getting on base for a catcher. He has power as well, having hit 21 home runs and 35 doubles in 141 games. Turang is all about speed, having tallied four triples and 41 stolen bases, if only seven homers. His power at home is what is lacking, though. On the road, he's slugged a workable .423 as a second baseman. Finishing third in the Rookie of the Year voting is not the goal, but Chourio is working toward making that a reality thanks to his 1.023 OPS over the last three weeks. He's a righty, but he has an .825 OPS versus his fellow right-handers, better than his .703 OPS against southpaws.
