This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Sundays full of day baseball are in short supply for the rest of the season. You can make the most of it as a fan and DFS player. There are 10 MLB games on the slate, with the first pitch at 1:35 p.m. EDT. Here are my lineup recommendations.
Pitching
Brandon Woodruff, MIL vs. WAS ($10,800): While Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta have slightly underperformed this season, Woodruff has made up for the pitching shortfall when healthy - and then some. Since returning from injury in August, he's posted a 2.22 ERA while striking out 10.1 batters per nine innings. The Nationals are at the top end of the bottom-10 in runs scored, though that's obviously not a spot in the rankings where you want to finish.
Charlie Morton, ATL at MIA ($9,500): As if Atlanta needed any help, Morton has registered a 1.85 ERA across his last six starts. This from the "innings eater" of the rotation! I don't expect any change here as the Marlins have struggled for so long offensively they now find themselves among the bottom-six squads that have separated themselves in terms of offensive futility.
Sonny Gray, MIN at CWS ($9,300): Gray managed a 3.08 ERA in his first campaign with the Twins, but with a 3.40 FIP. This year, he's at a 2.96 and 2.90 in those categories. Few pitchers suppress homers like Gray, and even less teams are more all-or-nothing offensively than the White Sox. Hitters rarely get on base as they list a .293 OBP, which is comfortably last in MLB.
Top Targets
Though Paul Goldschmidt ($5,200) has fallen short of his MVP-level numbers, he's recorded a .365 OBP with 24 homers and 11 stolen bases. His numbers have mostly dipped versus southpaws, though he's produced an .812 OPS against righties and an .845 at home. Taijuan Walker is a righty with a 5.14 road ERA.
The Reds are a young team, and so it's not surprising many of their bats have been inconsistent. Spencer Steer ($5,100) has delivered a relatively-steady .265/.355/.454 slash line with 22 home runs and 14 steals that includes a .912 OPS against lefties. Jose Quintana has managed a 3.19 FIP even with low strikeouts and elevated walks mostly by allowing only one homer in 59 starts, which isn't really sustainable even for a pitcher quite good at keeping the ball in the park. And while he's wiped out his fellow lefties, righties have hit .269 against.
Bargain Bats
13 homers and 10 stolen bases in 113 games for Ke'Bryan Hayes ($4,700) is solid, but his seven triples show just how much speed he offers. He's also feasted at home with a .933 OPS. Now that Carlos Rodon has made 11 starts during 2023, it doesn't seem like he's going to figure it out. He's posted a 6.30 FIP and has only managed to avoid allowing a homer in one of his outings.
He's primarily employed for his fielding skills, but Kevin Kiermaier ($3,000) has an .875 OPS the last three weeks. He's also the only lefty currently getting regular playing time for the Blue Jays. Nick Pivetta has a 5.44 ERA over his last 10 outings. While he's held righties to a .204 average on the season, lefties have gone .241.
Stacks to Consider
Astros at Royals (Jordan Lyles): Yordan Alvarez ($6,200), Kyle Tucker ($5,900), Alex Bregman ($5,600)
Lyles began his career with the Astros, and proceeded to post an ERA over 5.00 in each of his first three seasons. A decade later, he's still out there as one of baseball's worst pitchers with a 6.44 ERA for the Royals. It's wild to me Lyles is still an MLB pitcher, though that works from a DFS perspective.
Alvarez boasts power in all scenarios, but this matchup is best with an OPS over 1.000 against righties and on the road. After compiling a 30/25 campaign in 2022, Tucker is on the verge of a 30/30 with 27 homers and 28 steals to go with a .977 OPS away from home. Bregman is a righty who struggles against southpaws, yet lists an .862 OPS versus right-handers. Everybody hits Lyles all the time, though he's allowed a .277 to righties since 2021.
Phillies at Cardinals (Dakota Hudson): Bryce Harper ($6,000), Kyle Schwarber ($5,700), Bryson Stott ($4,700)
Hudson has walked 3.72 batters per nine innings, which is bad enough as is. And he's also only struck out 5.10 batters per nine. Throw in the .286 average he's conceded to southpaws, and that should cement the decision to stack against Hudson.
It took Harper's power a little time to return after Tommy John surgery, but he's hit well all year. That's how he's hit .290 and registered a .393 OBP. Harper has also slugged .531 the last three weeks. Schwarber will take a walk, and that's how he has a .344 OBP while hitting below the Mendoza Line. But with him, it's all about the power and the fact he's recorded back-to-back 40-homer campaigns. Stott delivers a bit less pop, though does more damage on the basepaths batting .285 with 15 homers and 29 stolen bases.
Brewers vs. Nationals (Patrick Corbin): William Contreras ($5,100), Willy Adames ($4,400), Andruw Monasterio ($3,000)
Through the sheer force of apathy, the Nationals have trotted Corbin out there enough times for him to pick up 10 wins on the season. That's with a 5.16 FIP, a 6.49 K/9 rate, and a 1.64 HR/9 rate. For the third straight year, righties are primed to hit .300 against Corbin, so I found three of them on the Brewers.
While Contreras has moved from Atlanta to Milwaukee, he's retained his skill against lefties. The catcher has produced an OPS over 1.000 against southpaws for the second year in a row. Adames doesn't hit for average or walk, but he's a shortstop with power with 24 homers alongside 23 doubles and a .455 slugging percentage. Monasterio isn't a prospect per se, but after a strong start at Triple-A he was called up for his MLB debut and has found his place at third base. The righty has gone .269 across 80 games with a .738 home OPS and an .895 against lefties.
