This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Friday night may not bring the best collection of pitchers taking the mound in MLB, but it does bring plenty of action. There are 12 games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET or later. That means missing out on two of the top pitchers in baseball – Zac Gallen and Shane McClanahan – who pitch a bit earlier, but there are still good matchups out there and intriguing DFS options. Here are my recommendations.
Pitching
Bryce Elder, ATL vs. SEA ($9,200): Atlanta knows how to find pitchers. Elder made the move to being part of the rotation for 2023, and he's responded with an 1.94 ERA. Plus, Atlanta tends to bring the offensive support. The Mariners are middling in runs scored, but have a .227 average as a team. That's some all-or-nothing swinging in Seattle.
Anthony DeSclafani, SF vs. MIA ($8,700): DeSclafani is dealing with a toe thing, but he's slated to start so I am assuming he's fine. Through eight starts he has a 3.30 FIP, and while last year was lost to an ankle injury, in 2021 he had a 3.61 FIP in his first year with the Giants. Thanks to Luis Arraez, the Marlins hit for average, but are still down in the bottom three in runs scored and seem likely to end there for a second season in a row.
Brandon Bielak, HOU vs. OAK ($6,200): Bielak has pitched out of the bullpen for the Astros in the past, but he's starting right now. Not only does he have a 3.29 ERA through three starts, but he just hit five innings in a start for the first time, which means win-eligibility. The Athletics have arguably been better than expected offensively, but they are still in the bottom five in runs scored.
Top Targets
So far this season, Pete Alonso ($5,400) has been more power-driven, but it's turned out alright. His average is down, but he's slugged .539 with 16 home runs, and he feels like a lock to hit at least 40 again. With a 4.84 FIP, Cal Quantrill is in line to have a FIP over 4.00 for the fourth time in five seasons. He's also allowed righties to hit .268 against him since 2021.
Jeremy Pena ($4,900) has six homers and six stolen bases after having 22 of the former and 11 of the latter as a rookie. He's still allergic to walks, but in his career he has an .843 OPS versus lefties, so walking is not necessary. Ken Waldichuk hasn't exactly been good at home, but he's been brutal on the road for Oakland. The southpaw has a 7.78 ERA in away games in the majors.
Bargain Bats
It's been a down campaign for Carlos Correa ($4,600), but there are some glimmers of hope. For example, he has a .781 OPS versus lefties, and since 2021 his OPS against southpaws is .878. Maybe Correa just needs a matchup like this one with Reid Detmers. The lefty posted an adequate 3.77 ERA for the Angels last season, but this year his ERA is up to 4.89.
The flaws in Luis Robert ($4,000)'s game is that he doesn't walk and he struggles to stay on the field. When he plays, though, he has a career .286 average and .487 slugging percentage. Zack Greinke gets batted around these days, and righties have hit .283 against him since 2021. Plus, the veteran has some truly wild home/road splits. Last year he had an 1.91 ERA at home and 5.32 ERA on the road. This season? His home ERA is 3.21, and his road ERA is 7.71.
Stacks to Consider
Blue Jays vs. Orioles (Kyle Gibson): Bo Bichette ($5,400), Matt Chapman ($4,700), Daulton Varsho ($4,100)
Joining a new team has not changed Gibson as a pitcher. He has a 4.67 ERA, in line with his career 4.52 number. Now, he's been in different parks, but he's struggling on the road again, with a 6.04 ERA in away games. This game is in Toronto, so here are three Blue Jays to stack.
Bichette has said goodbye to stealing bases, but he's still an elite hitter. He's slashed .328/.372/.527 with nine homers and 10 doubles. Chapman has a .311/.392/.516 slash line, and he enjoys Toronto's ballpark. While he has been better on the road this year, he's still been strong at home, and last year he had an .826 OPS in home games in his first season as a Blue Jay. Varsho has been bad in his new home park this year, but I am still going with him in this stack. One, he has six homers and six stolen bases. Two, he is a lefty, and since 2021 Gibson has allowed a .270 average to lefties, including .336 this season.
Cubs at Phillies (Ranger Suarez): Dansby Swanson ($4,500), Seiya Suzuki ($4,100), Patrick Wisdom ($4,000)
Suarez has only made one start this year, and it was at Coors Field, so I am not reading too much into that. Last season, though, he was a full-time starter for the first time. The lefty had a 3.86 FIP and allowed righties to hit .262 against him. I'll grab these three righties from the Cubs for Friday.
Swanson's power is still lagging, but he's hit .268 with a .368 OBP, plus three homers and four stolen bases. His power has shown against lefties, though, as he slugged .500 versus left-handed pitchers in 2023. Wisdom is all about power. He's slugged .577 with 12 homers this season and has hit at least 25 homers in each of his last two campaigns. Plus, since 2021 he's slugged .553 against lefties and .525 on the road. Suzuki missed the beginning of the season, but he's in the groove now. The Japanese outfielder has an .863 OPS through 31 games. Additionally, since coming over to MLB, Suzuki has an .881 OPS against lefties.
Dodgers at Cardinals (Steven Matz): Mookie Betts ($5,600), Will Smith ($5,300), Chris Taylor ($3,400)
Matz is primed to have an ERA over 5.00 for the second season in a row. He's always had an issue allowing home runs, having given up 1.42 per nine innings in his career. Matz also really struggles with right-handed hitters. Since 2021, righties have hit .273 against the southpaw, and this year he's allowed a staggering .341 average in those matchups.
Whatever position he's playing, Betts is hitting, having slashed .252/.359/.509 with nine home runs. On top of that, since 2021 he has a .940 OPS against southpaws. Smith has always been one of the best-hitting catchers in baseball, but this season he's even managed to bolster his career .869 OPS. He has a .317/.407/.584 slash line with seven homers. I expect Taylor in the lineup with a lefty on the mound. Since 2021 he has a .778 OPS against lefties. While his average leaves a ton to be desired, he still has seven homers and four stolen bases. Effectively, Taylor has become a right-handed Cody Bellinger replacement.
