This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
MLB DFS Picks: DraftKings Plays & Strategy for
Friday, Aug. 4
We head into the first weekend in August with 11 MLB games Friday night starting at 7:05 p.m. ET or later. There are teams playing for postseason positioning, some just trying to make the playoffs, and some playing out the stretch. You aren't playing out the stretch, though, so here are my DFS lineups recommendations.
Pitching
Aaron Nola, PHI vs. KC ($10,000): Speaking of teams with something to play for and teams just waiting for October so they can stop showing up to the ballpark, the Phillies could really use Nola turning it around as they try to grab a wild card spot. It helps that he has a 3.27 ERA at home. What helps more is facing a Royals team that is 29th in runs scored and fighting the Athletics for the worst record in MLB.
Merrill Kelly, ARI at MIN ($8,800): Kelly keeps the ball in the park, and while he isn't an elite strikeout guy, his 9.25 strikeouts per nine innings is a personal best. His 3.23 ERA is quite good, but his 2.74 ERA on the road is even better. The Twins are the only AL Central offense outside the bottom eight in runs scored, but they are still below average. That's while being in the top 10 in home runs, and like I said, Kelly keeps the ball in the park.
Logan Allen, CLE vs. CWS ($7,900): Allen's last start was against the White Sox, and it went poorly, but I return to this well. One, all in all Allen has a 3.70 ERA as a rookie, which is decent. Two, the White Sox are in the bottom eight in runs scored and actually have the lowest OBP as a team. Guys don't get on base, and that makes it hard to score.
Top Targets
When a .365 OBP with 18 homers and nine stolen bases in 105 games qualifies as a down campaign for you, that means you are quite good, and indeed Paul Goldschmidt ($5,700) is. Strangely, he's lost his way against lefties this year, but against righties, his .859 OPS more than suffices. Chris Flexen has made one start with the Rockies, and he went 3.2 innings and allowed five runs to…Oakland. His career ERA is 4.82, and since 2021 his fellow righties have hit .294 against him.
The Brewers might win the NL Central, and if they do, they will thank Christian Yelich ($5,300) for carrying a lackluster offense. His 16 homers and 22 stolen bases are a delight to fantasy-minded folks, but what is key is that he has a .922 OPS versus righties. With a hot start having disappeared over the horizon, the Pirates are continuing to trot out Quinn Priester, a rookie pitcher with a 9.19 ERA through three starts. Notably, lefties have hit .314 against him.
Bargain Bats
The struggles of Kyle Schwarber ($4,600) drop him into "Bargain Bat" territory, but his homer swing is still there. His .180 average is low even for him, but somehow he still has 27 homers. When he makes contact, Schwarber clearly has elite power, and contact is easy against Jordan Lyles. He made his MLB debut in 2011 and has a career 5.18 average and every time I think about the fact he's still an MLB starter in spite of that it blows my mind anew. Lyles has a 7.52 ERA on the road this season, and lefties have hit .271 against him.
Why am I recommending Ryan McMahon ($4,400), a Rockie, on the road? Because Adam Wainwright has turned every park he takes the mound in into Coors Field. He's a Cardinals legend, but the dude doesn't have it anymore. The 41-year-old has a 7.18 ERA and has struck out 4.88 batters per nine innings. Lefties have hit .390 against him, and that's over 133 batters faced. McMahon is a southpaw, and his .899 OPS versus righties isn't all Coors.
Stacks to Consider
Astros at Yankees (Luis Severino): Yordan Alvarez ($6,000), Kyle Tucker ($5,700), Alex Bregman ($5,300)
There was talk, and that talk came from a reliable source in Yankees manager Aaron Boone, that Severino might lose his rotation spot. With Domingo German out, though, that doesn't seem feasible, and so Severino is scheduled for a start Friday. Had he been booted from the rotation, it would have made sense. He has a 7.49 ERA and has allowed 2.34 homers per nine innings. Righties have hit .298 against Severino, which is great, but lefties have hit a robust .360, so I have two lefties in this stack. They also happen to be Houston's two best hitters, to be fair.
Alvarez missed a lot of time, so in case you need a brief refresher, he's slashed .291/.399/.604. Since 2021, he has a .962 OPS versus righties, and a .982 OPS on the road. Tucker has 19 homers and 20 stolen bases, not to mention a .987 OPS on the road. He's also been hot for a bit, posting a 1.124 OPS over the last three weeks. Bregman's overall numbers aren't bad, specifically his 18 homers, but weirdly his issue is that he's been awful against lefties. Versus his fellow rights, though, he has an .860 OPS.
Mets at Orioles (Dean Kremer): Pete Alonso ($5,600), Francisco Lindor ($5,200), Daniel Vogelbach ($2,500)
The Orioles have a good shot to make the playoffs, but they have gotten to this point on the strength of their offense and bullpen. They traded for Jack Flaherty, a mediocre pitcher, for a reason. Kremer has trotted out for 22 starts, and in the process posted a 4.91 FIP. At home, he has a 5.51 ERA and has allowed 2.0 home runs per nine innings. Getting this trio away from Citi Field, and facing a righty, makes for a good stack.
Alonso has been a right-handed Kyle Schwarber this season, but the best version of that. He's hit 31 homers in 101 games with a .221 average. His issue, though, is a .672 OPS at home. On the road he has a .937 OPS, including a .584 slugging percentage. Lindor has 22 homers and 17 stolen bases, and the switch-hitter leans toward preferring to face righties (.785 OPS in 2023). His preference to be away from Queens is clearer, as he has a .496 slugging percentage on the road, compared to a .411 slugging percentage at home. Vogelbach will be glued to the bench the second a lefty hits the mound, but with Brandon Nimmo hurt and Brett Baty the rare Met way better at home, his power upside is worth it. Since 2021 he has an .818 OPS versus right handers, and he has a .730 OPS on the road this year, compared to a .672 OPS at home.
Pirates at Brewers (Colin Rea): Bryan Reynolds ($4,500), Jack Suwinski ($3,600), Endy Rodriguez ($2,500)
The Pirates have tumbled offensively, but I still like this stack. Why? Well, over his last five starts he has a 5.27 ERA and has allowed seven homers in 27.1 innings. All in all he has a 4.83 FIP on the campaign, his first real MLB action since 2016. Lefties have hit him much better, posting a .251 average and hitting five homers against righties in 15 fewer at-bats, so I went with three guys who can hit left-handed.
It's been an up-and-down season for Reynolds, but he has 12 homers and eight stolen bases. He's hit lefties and righties fairly evenly in his career, but his .843 OPS versus righties since 2021 is slightly better than his .820 number against southpaws. What has been clear the last few years is a preference to be on the road, and he has an .836 OPS in away games this season. Suwinski has slugged .486 with 21 homers, with 20 of them coming against righties, against whom he's posted an .896 OPS. As a rookie, the southpaw was much better at home, but this year that's flipped, and he has a .951 OPS in away games. Henry Davis debuted as an outfielder, and part of the reason why the Pirates are probably good with that is the fact Rodriguez cruised through the minors as a catcher. It's only been a handful of games, but so far the switch-hitter as a .765 OPS versus righties and an .821 OPS on the road.
