This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
I hope you enjoyed the Fourth of July, but don't get too relaxed. You need to be primed for MLB DFS action Friday! There are 12 games on the slate, with the first pitch being thrown at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let's keep the holiday weekend going! Here are my lineup recommendations.
Pitching
Tanner Bibee, CLE vs. SF ($9,200): Bibee's ERA is up from his rookie season, but his overall performance is better. His FIP has dropped to 3.32, and his K/BB rate is up to 4.95. Not only that, but over his last nine starts he has a 2.38 ERA. The Giants are middling in terms of runs scored, so I am not too worried about them as Bibee's opponent.
Kevin Gausman, TOR at SEA ($8,300): Gausman has had a disappointing season, but it has been a bifurcated season. He has a 7.19 ERA at home, but a 2.22 ERA on the road. Since joining the Jays, Gausman's road ERA is 2.65. The Mariners have a pitcher-friendly ballpark and also a pitcher-friendly offense. They are in the bottom five in runs scored and have a sub-.300 OBP.
Albert Suarez, BAL at OAK ($7,600): Suarez started the season as a relief pitcher, but he's moved into being a starter. In five of his last six outings he's gone at least 5.0 innings, which means qualifying for a win. Suarez also has a 3.30 ERA in that time. Because the Marlins and White Sox are so bad, the Athletics are 28th in runs scored, but they are locked into being in the bottom five on that front once again.
Top Targets
The Blue Jays pitched around Yordan Alvarez ($5,400) on Thursday, which is understandable. He hit a homer against them three games in a row prior to that. Pablo Lopez won't walk Alvarez, because he barely walks anybody, but he's allowed 1.63 homers per nine innings, and lefties have hit .262 against him.
Switch-hitting second baseman Ketel Marte ($5,100) has hit .286 with 17 homers and 19 doubles to pace Arizona's offense. While Marte is better against lefties, Randy Vasquez is a righty against whom I'd still like to roster him. Vazquez has a 5.30 FIP and 5.57 K/9 rate, and he's been truly horrendous against lefties. Southpaws have hit .449 against him. Yes, .449.
Bargain Bats
There is a good chance Gavin Sheets ($3,200) will be in the White Sox's lineup Friday, and thus he's a great low-salary choice for your lineup as well. The southpaw has a .740 OPS against righties, and also a .747 OPS on the road. Meanwhile, Roddery Munoz has a 7.07 ERA at home, and left-handers have hit .304 against the rookie pitcher.
With two hits, including his fifth homer, Colt Keith ($3,000) stayed hot Thursday. Over the last three weeks he has a .778 OPS. Hey, for him, that counts as hot, and he is a rookie second baseman. Keith's recent performance has sufficed, and he's primed to face righty Carson Spiers on Friday. Spiers doesn't allow many home runs, but in his career lefties have hit .321 against him.
Stacks to Consider
Royals at Rockies (Kyle Freeland): Bobby Witt ($6,800), Salvador Perez ($5,700), Maikel Garcia ($5,400)
The Royals are headed to Coors, and that means making them staples of your DFS rosters for the next few days. Freeland had a 5.03 ERA and 5.43 K/9 rate last year. Could it get worse than that? Yes! While an injury has limited Freeland to six starts this season, he has a 7.94 ERA and 5.08 K/9 rate. Since he is a southpaw, I have three righties in this stack.
Witt is the star of the show for the Royals. He's slashed .319/.369/.556 with 24 doubles, 22 stolen bases and nine triples as well. Coors is good for homers but also doubles and triples. Perez is a catcher with 14 homers and a .460 slugging percentage. He's been a 20-homer guy since 2014, and a catcher with that kind of power is a great choice in the Mile High City. Garcia doesn't have a ton of power, but he has slugged .459 against lefties since 2022. He does have speed, though, with four triples and 21 stolen bases.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks (Slade Cecconi): Luis Arraez ($4,700), Ha-Seong Kim ($4,300), Jurickson Profar ($4,300)
Cecconi has a 5.81 ERA and has given up 1.88 homers per nine innings. Now, in his career he has a 3.48 ERA on the road and an 8.27 ERA at home. However, Arizona's park is a pitcher's park, and my feeling is that if a pitcher has numbers that poor in any scenario, it doesn't speak well of their ability. Though he is right handed, righties have hit .287 against Cecconi in his career, so I have two guys who can hit right handed in this stack.
As per usual, Arraez has been stellar at picking up hits, and in fact he leads MLB in hits. He also has a .312 average, and while he is not a power hitter, Arraez has slugged .452 against righties since 2022. Kim's average has dropped, but he still has 10 homers and 17 stolen bases. His issue is that he's really struggled against lefties, which is unusual for him. Kim's .755 OPS versus righties suffices, especially against Cecconi. Fresh off one of the more surprising All-Star Game starting nods I can recall, Profar picked up his 12th homer Thursday. He's been fantastic at home, where he has a .971 OPS.
