This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous article 3-2 +1.05
After seeing the results over the first five days of baseball, I can say that my route of being conservative early on will continue. There have been a lot of wild outcomes so far, but some of the very bad teams have already started to show their warts (A's, Diamondbacks).
Seattle Mariners 
at Chigago White Sox 
4:10 pm EDT (White Sox -120, Total 9.0)
Matt Brash vs. Vince Velasquez
My theme of picking on bad starting pitchers will continue with going against Vince Velasquez here. He made 25 appearances (21 starts) between the Phillies and Padres last year and posted a 6.30 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 94.1 innings.
Also, we get the Mariners on the road in a better park environment for scoring runs. Last year, they averaged 4.54 runs on the road vs. 4.06 at home and their lineup is significantly better this year. I have seen in some places where this total opened 10 and dropped to 9.0 and that could be based on Brash. But I think the 9.0 presents great value on the side of the Mariners to jump all over VV early and often.
BET – Mariners over 4.5 runs for 1 RW buck (+105)
Chicago Cubs 
at Pittsburgh Pirates 
4:12 pm EDT (Cubs -115, total 8.5)
Much like I did with the Mariners, I will look at the Cubs team total against Jose Quintana. I really think the Cubs lineup is sneaky this year with a lot of high pedigree hitters (high draft picks) who could finally put it all together. They surprised the Brewers by scoring 18 runs in 3 games against some of the best pitching in baseball. The Pirates have allowed 19 runs in 3 games. While Quintana did strike out a career-high 12.14 K/9 in 2021, he also allowed 1.71 HR/9 and 5.00 BB/9 with a 6.43 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in 10 starts (29 games). After Quintana comes out, the Pirates bullpen is one of the worst in baseball with a 5.15 xFIP (2nd worst in baseball).
The combination of allowing a lot of baserunners and home runs leads me to be on the Cubs today.
BET – Cubs over 4.5 runs for 1 RW buck (+105)
Houston Astros 
at Arizona Diamondbacks 
9:40 pm EDT (Astros -150, total 9.0)
Luis Garcia vs. Madison Bumgarner
The Astros are a top 3 team in the American League and top 5 in baseball going up against the D-backs who are a bottom 3 team. Getting the Astros at -150 (it opened -120) here almost seems criminal with the way the Diamondbacks offense has been performing. Arizona is dead last in baseball in batting average (.129), and 4th lowest runs scored per game (2.75). Garcia is coming off a successful 2021 season in which he placed second in the American League Rookie of the Year balloting in 2021, finishing with a 3.48 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 167:50 K:BB across 155.1 frames. Add in the fact that the Astros demolish left-handed pitching and we have a recipe for a blowout in Arizona tonight.
BET – Astros over 5.5 runs for 1 RW buck (+120)
BET – Astros -1.5 runs for 1 RW buck (+105)
