This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Hello, and welcome to a new season of MLB Betting. In this column I will select wagers that offer some value in relation to their listed betting line. If following along, I recommend listing pitchers, both to lock in your price and protect against any unexpected changes.
Detroit Tigers 
+125 vs. Chicago White Sox 
This play is pretty much laid out in my baseball betting article from last week, where I mentioned that I like to key on good young pitchers who are overlooked and/or undervalued in the betting market. One of those mentioned was Casey Mize, who was remarkably consistent last year (especially for a rookie), and was arguably the Tigers' best starter. The 2018 No. 1 overall draft pick should continue to perform well this year with his expected natural progression, while the Tigers definitely upgraded their offense this offseason, adding solid hitters like Javier Baez and Austin Meadows, with another No. 1 overall draft pick (2020) in rookie Spencer Torkelson. The White Sox boast a powerful lineup, one of the better ones in the game, but Mize can always be expected to pitch well, while White Sox starter Dylan Cease has clearly performed better at home than he has on the road. There's no reason why the White Sox should be medium-heavy favorites in this game, as it appears close to a toss-up, and I would even give a slight edge to the Tigers based on the pitching matchup, the respective lineups and the Tigers' home-field edge. The Tigers are also a good bet to cover their season-long win total, which was 77.5 before the Austin Meadows trade, and 78.5 afterward. The Tigers won 77 games last year, and definitely seem on the improve.
Toronto Blue Jays 
-1.5, +100 vs. Texas Rangers 
Kevin Gausman v.s Dane Dunning
Fresh off their huge come-from-behind victory Friday (where Toronto fell behind 7-0 before roaring back to win 10-8), the Blue Jays now send out their big free-agent acquisition Kevin Gausman as they try to keep things rolling. Gausman has been highly regarded for a long time, but he finally put it all together last year with the Giants, and was one of the better pitchers I saw. For what it's worth, against Detroit in Gausman's last (and only) spring start, Tigers radio announcers remarked that Gausman looked sharper than any pitcher they had faced all spring. With the Blue Jays listed as a heavy -200 favorite, let's use the run line to get that price down to even money. So long as Gausman performs as expected, it's reasonable to expect Toronto's high-powered offense to put up some runs and cover that number.
Houston Astros 
-110 at Los Angeles Angels 
Justin Verlander vs. Noah Syndergaard
There's been a lot of hype this year about the Dodgers lineup, with some calling it the "best ever." I don't think it's as good as Houston's lineup, but that's just me. As an example, the last two nights the Astros had their legit MVP candidate, Kyle Tucker, batting sixth. The hitters behind him aren't bad either. Just for instance, Friday night rookie shortstop Jeremy Pena homered (he's one to watch in the AL ROY market), while rookie center-fielder Jose Siri had two hits and stole a base. The Astros' other center-fielder Chas McCormick had two hits the night before that and has 30-homer power. Meanwhile, the Astros should get a huge emotional lift Saturday, as future Hall of Fame pitcher Justin Verlander makes his long-awaited return after missing the 2021 season with Tommy John surgery. The rule of thumb with TJ surgery (as far as I know) is that it generally takes about 18 months for a pitcher to get all the way back. Verlander has taken all the time he needed, and looks sharp based on his recent spring stats, posting a 1.32 ERA and 1.10 WHIP while striking out more than a batter per inning. Clearly the better team, and with the better pitcher on the mound, the Astros look like a good play at the short price.
