This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous day: 1-1, -.28 RWBucks
Season: 3-2, .90 RWBucks
There's nothing better than waking up to see a full slate of baseball throughout the day. That's what we have Saturday, with games kicking off at 1 p.m. EDT and running through the primetime showdown between the Dodgers and Padres. As usual, this article will focus on some of the games later in the slate.
Odds are from MGM Sportsbook.
7:20 p.m. Atlanta (Drew Smyly) vs. Arizona (Madison Bumgarner) over 9.0 runs (-110)
Following Joe Sheehan's lead Friday, we'll remain locked in on plenty of scoring in Atlanta. Although it's too early to rely heavily on team trends, Atlanta is 11-6-1 on game totals this season and 7-0-1 at home. Additional positive factors include the return of Ronald Acuna, and a matchup against Bugmarner, who ranks in the 13th percentile or lower in average exit velocity, xwOBA, xSLG and xERA on 58 batted balls. On the other side of the matchup, the Diamondbacks have the highest wOBA in the league against left-handed pitching this season. While Smyly is the better pitcher in the matchup, he's given up plenty of hard contact in his own right.
9:05 p.m. Pablo Lopez over 4.5 strikeouts (-128)
Lopez has filled the strike zone through four starts, posting a career-high 45 percent zone rate. That's contributed to an increased overall strikeout rate, which has translated even when the results in terms of earned runs haven't been there. Finally, the Marlins have allowed Lopez to rack up his pitch count, throwing 99 and 101 pitches in two of his last three starts, so he should face enough batters to pile up strikeouts. Shifting to the matchup, San Francisco is fairly susceptible to striking out at the plate (25 K%) and could be without a few of its regulars in the lineup due to injury.
9:10 p.m. Trevor Bauer under 8.5 strikeouts (-143)
We'll head over to our top prop bets page for the final pick of the day. Bauer has delivered on expectations after signing with the Dodgers this offseason, allowing only seven earned runs in 26 innings. In three starts, he struck out 10 batters on two occasions and nine hitters once. However, two of those outings came against Colorado and the third against Oakland, teams which have posted strikeout rates 26 and 24.8 percent, respectively. San Diego is a different caliber of lineup and has been one of hardest teams to punch out this season. We've already seen Bauer matchup against the Padres, and even in a game where he pitched well across six innings he fell well short of this mark.
