Top MLB Betting Picks for May 20: Expert Predictions and Best Bets
Previous article 1-2 (-0.95 units)
Season 47-54-1 (-6.92 units)
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Key Trends in Today's MLB Matchups
Before locking in your MLB bets today, be sure to check out these key betting trends.
Road Favorites - Phillies -280 at Rockies, Tigers -182 at Cardinals, Braves -180 at Nationals, Mariners -175 at White Sox
Home Favorites (Largest) - Dodgers -220 vs Dbacks, Yankees -186 vs Rangers
Totals - Phillies/Rockies 10.5, Athletics/Angels 10.0-10.5, Guardians/Twins 7.0-7.5, Tigers/Cardinals 7.5
Weather Conditions and Their Impact on MLB Betting Odds
Mariners at White Sox - Potential rainout
Negative Scoring Environments (based on temperature and wind) - Mets/Red Sox, Royals/Giants, Guardians/Twins
Positive Scoring Environments - Angels/Athletics, Astros/Rays, Phillies/Rockies
MLB Line Movement
Rays -23, Yankees -29
Bullpen Rankings (updated 5/20/25)
-Top 10 (Twins, Astros, Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Phillies, Dodgers, Padres, Blue Jays, Royals). These are teams you can feel confident betting in full-game situations.
-Bottom 10 (Angels, Dbacks, Rockies, Marlins, White Sox, Orioles, Braves, Nationals, Rays, Tigers). These are teams you can feel confident betting against in full-game situations. If you want to bet on them, focus on F5s.
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Philadelphia Phillies vs Colorado Rockies Best Bets and Predictions
The biggest pitching mismatch on the slate is Jesus Luzardo versus Antonio Senzatela, but it also comes with a very hefty price tag of a -270 moneyline on the road, but the total is reasonable at 10.5. A lot of that total though is the strength of Luzardo against this weak Rockies lineup. So that means we have to go shopping for something of value that makes sense preferably between the -120 to +120 price range.
The -1.5 run line is -190 Phillies, and the 2.5 run line is -132, which might be doable, but man this is getting out of hand and rightfully so with how bad Colorado is right now.
My first go-to is usually the team total, and then I start looking at F5 team totals.
Here are some potential F5 options - Rockies under 1.5 runs, Phillies over 3.5 runs, Phillies -1.5
I am going to roll with the Phillies at -1.5 runs F5 and Phillies over 3.5 runs F5. I normally stay away from doing this as I have been burned in the past, but they are at good prices.
MLB Best Bets: Phillies -1.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -105); Phillies OVER 3.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +100)
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Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Insights
I have been taking under in Pirates games for a while now, and nothing changes here as we get Nick Martinez against Bailey Falter. The key is here we get two offenses in very bad situations. The Reds are a bottom 5 offense against left-handed pitching.
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 8 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 10 games on the road.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games against Cincinnati.
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games at home
The Pirates have averaged 2.4 runs per game in their last 10 and the Reds have averaged 4.2. The total is already moving towards 7.5 at some sportsbooks which is usually an indication of where things will be heading.
MLB Best Bets: Reds/Pirates UNDER 8 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers +107)
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Texas Rangers vs New York Yankees Best Bets and Predictions
The Yankees average the third most runs per game at home in baseball at 5.9 and get Patrick Corbin tonight who has pitched relatively well this season. But I can not trust Corbin in this spot against a Yankees lineup that is #1 at home against left-handed pitching with a 185 wRC+.
MLB Best Bets: Yankees OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -130)
MLB Picks Today Recap
- Phillies -1.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -105)
- Phillies OVER 3.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings +100)
- Reds/Pirates UNDER 8 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers +107)
- Yankees OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -130)
