This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Payne's YTD Record (1-2)
I didn't get off to the best start but there's plenty of season left and it's a marathon and not a sprint (ducks from flying objects thrown at his head). Seriously, there's plenty of season left and the irony of my first week's record is that the Red Sox (I'm a Yankees fan) were the team that got me the win. Let's take a look at what's going on in baseball this fine Monday.
New York Mets 
vs. San Francisco Giants 
UNDER 6.5 Runs
This over/under is the lowest of the day and rightfully so. Megill and Cobb are both stellar starting options and the weather is supposed to be cold, below 50 degrees for the game. The Giants are off to a surprising start but looking up and down their lineup, there aren't a lot of heavy hitters outside of Brandon Belt and maybe Joc Pederson. In fact, seven of the nine hitters for San Francisco are batting .242 or less. Alex Cobb had an excellent first outing with 10 strikeouts and has turned into a crafty veteran pitcher maintaining an ERA of 3.76 last season. I see this being a 3-2 type of affair with the Giants suffering their first away defeat.
Freddie Freeman Total Bases OVER 1.5 (+140)
I went back and forth between this and OVER 0.5 RBI (+180) for Freeman and ultimately decided on doing the over total bases. Freeman is coming off a 4-for-5 night and has a favorable matchup against Huascar Ynoa. Freeman is still in search of his first home run of the season and it's only a matter of time before that happens. Freeman should easily see four, maybe five at-bats batting second and only needs a double to hit the over here.
Bryce Harper (+250), Kyle Schwarber (+260), Rhys Hoskins (+260) Anytime Home Run
Philadelphia Phillies 
at Colorado Rockies 
(Chad Kuhl)
There have been a couple of his scoring games in Colorado already over the past two days and the Phillies will get their chance to take advantage of the thin air. I like taking all three here as only one of them needs to go yard for this to be profitable. Chad Kuhl is making his first home start as a Rockie and has always had issues with walks and giving up the long ball. Make sure to look around for these lines; these odds are as low as +172, +176 on certain sites and as high as these marks are on others.
San Diego Padres 
(-1.5 Run Line) (+120) vs. Cincinnati Reds 
If you want to be a little more risk-averse you can take the Padres money line at -170 and not worry about covering the extra run. Lodolo still appears to be learning on the job as he surrendered five earned runs in his first outing, including two home runs. That outing was against the Guardians in Cincinnati and the Padres at home should be a much tougher task. Sean Manaea is an underrated pitcher who should benefit from switching leagues and pitching in the Padres' home park. He's struck out a batter per inning to start the season (13 innings) and has allowed only two earned runs with both of those outings being on the road.
