This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
I am excited to be back writing MLB betting content on Rotowire this year after a successful 1st run in 2021. I was on a very hot run for the first few months of the season, but then reality kicked in and I started to get closer to that 55% threshold. I was writing content almost every day which did have an impact on my results, so look for my content this year on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Fridays.
Early indications for me will be to avoid all strikeout props, especially overs, as we see starting pitching get limited and more bullpen usage with the expanded rosters. I also try to recommend bets that will be in the plus range or a slight favorite (usually -150 or less).
Rays vs. Orioles 3:10 pm EDT (Rays -180, Total 7.5 runs)
Shane McClanahan vs. John Means
The first game of the day that I looked at was this one because I rode the Rays over the Orioles a lot in 2021. The Rays were 18-1 vs. the Orioles in 2021, and I would expect more of the same here. I usually look more at first 5 inning bets, but I think the game will be close and lower scoring today. That is... until the Orioles bullpen gets in the game and the Rays (likely) bust it open. The Rays were one of the strongest teams at home in 2021 at 52-29 (4.95-3.19 runs), and their offense has improved this year with the addition of Wander Franco (for the full season) and Josh Lowe. My projected line on this game was the Rays -200 so I like the value on them to win the game.
BET: Rays -1.5 runs for 1 RW buck (+115)
Giants vs. Marlins 4:35 pm EDT (Giants -145, Total: 7.5 runs)
Logan Webb vs. Sandy Alcantara
If you followed this column last year, you know I rode Logan Webb for much of the year after his run started in June. I will continue to much of the same as -145 just feels very low even with another stud pitcher on the mound in Sandy Alcantara. The Giants should still be a decent team this year, but more in the 85-90 win range vs. 100-plus last year.
The Giants offense has taken a hit with Buster Posey retiring, Evan Longoria and LaMonte Wade Jr. starting the year on the injured list.
That is why I like the under here in several different ways. The game on paper looks to be 0-0 or 1-0 in the first 5 innings. I can see the Giants scraping together a couple of runs on the Marlins bullpen and getting out with a 3-1 win today.
BET: Marlins under 2.5 runs for 1 RW buck (+135)
BET: Giants/Marlins under 3.5 runs F5 for 1 RW buck (+100)
BET: Giants ML for 1.45 RW bucks (-145)
Blue Jays vs. Rangers 7:07 pm EDT (Jays -160, Total: 9.0)
Jose Berrios vs. Jon Gray
My pick to win the American League is the Blue Jays, and while the Rangers did improve their offense in the offseason, they are still significantly behind a team like Toronto. I am surprised this line is not more in the -180 to -200 range, so I am looking for value on the Jays to win the game. With a potent offense at home, scoring runs shouldn't be an issue so laying 1.5 runs here is the play.
BET: Jays -1.5 runs for 1 RW buck (+105)
