MLB Betting: Friday Best Bets

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

Previous day: 1-2, -1.26 RWBucks

Season: 16-24, -7.90 RWBucks

As mentioned, this space will still not become a venue for complaining about beats.

(...but come ON...)

Some time next week we'll start looking back at records to date, broken down by category (sides, totals, props, et al) to see what we can learn. Even for an amateur bettor, this kind of tracking is critical; everyone has strengths and weaknesses, everyone has blind spots. For instance, I am struggling betting baseball games so far. It's important to be able to discover things like that through careful data analysis.

One of the best things about doing a column like this is the accountability. I was posting picks in the Newsletter Slack the last two seasons (finishing in the red in the regular season and then in the black counting the playoffs both times). There's a small, active group of people trading ideas and posting picks and records. Here at Rotowire, Chris Liss has more than a decade of football picks tracked. Peter Schoenke has been posting preseason baseball picks for almost as long. Here, Juan Carlos Blanco and Michael Rathburn and Dan Marcus are giving you their best analysis and posting their records every single day.

Without getting into the full dataset, I can tell you that one area of success so far is team totals. I'm 2-0, giving out a Reds over last Friday and a Mets over Tuesday night. Heading into the weekend, let's stick to that island of success. Sorry, no Full Slate Friday this week.

7 p.m. Orioles (Jorge Lopez) team total under 4.5 (-141) vs. A's (Cole Irvin).

Cole Irvin has only allowed runs to the Astros this year, getting knocked around by them twice before shutting out the Tigers for six innings his last time out. The A's had allowed fewer than five runs in six straight games before Wednesday's 13-12 win over the Twins. The Orioles are down Anthony Santander for a while; with him, they were middle of the pack against lefties last year, and are tenth in the AL in wOBA against southpaws this year. Pay the juice. 1.5 RWBucks.

7 p.m. Mariners (Yusei Kikuchi) team total under 4.5 (-124) vs. Red Sox (Martin Perez). 

The Mariners are third-worst in the AL against lefty pitchers, and while Perez has an ugly ERA (5.93), he's pitched better than that (4.27 FIP) while facing the best, third-best, and seventh-best teams in the league against lefties. The Mariners have scored nearly 10% of their runs in extra innings, with the help of the ghost runner -- their offense is actually worse than their baseline stats make it look. 1 RWBuck.

7:20 p.m. Braves (Huascar Ynoa) team total over 4.5 (-110) vs. Diamondbacks (Luke Weaver).

As we discussed last week, these picks are all posted with listed pitchers, or in the case of team totals, listed opposing pitcher. For this specific pick, however, I'm making it "listed right fielder." If Ronald Acuña Jr. returns to the lineup tonight, as expected, this pick holds. You'll have more information later in the day. This Braves offense is third in the NL against right-handers and is lined up to pick off a Diamondbacks bullpen riddled with injuries. Don't sweat it if this game is 2-1 in the sixth. 1.5 RWBucks, only if Ronald Acuña Jr. starts.

*Editor's note: Acuna will bat leadoff Friday.