This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous day: 0-2, -1.5 RWBucks
Season: 6-5, +1.93 RWBucks
Wednesday's card got trucked, walking into two shutouts, one wiping out a side, the other an over. In the moment, it's lousy to watch, especially since both bets were in play late. However, they're not bad beats. They're just wrong calls, and they're going to happen.
Accepting that you're going to be wrong, and not a little bit, is a big part of doing this. To beat the book, the math says you need to hit a bit short of 55% of your bets, given the vigorish -- the book's cut for taking the action. Strong bettors push over that number, and a good year for a sharp could mean a 60% hit rate. So the very best people at this are losing two bets for every five they make. At 55%, you're wrong almost as often as you're right.
The guys in the magazines, on the low-rent TV ads, on Twitter, maybe in your text messages if you gave your phone number to the wrong Web site...they're lying to you. There are no locks. There are no ten-star plays of the year. The balls and the bats are round, and the bases are square, and the umpires are blind, and anyone telling you they can guarantee a winner, or even 70% of them, can be ignored. In the short run? Sure. I started the year 4-0 and I'm an idiot. Anyone can get on a heater, where the aces all pitch like they're supposed to, the RISP gods are kind, the managers don't make mistakes, and all the games end when they're supposed to end.
I'm telling you right now, though, that I'm 6-5, and if I go 6-5 for every 11 bets I make, a 54.5% hit rate, I'm going to be happier than a puppy in a basket of chew toys. The trick is to focus on that big picture, that long run, and not let the 0-2 days, or the 2-5 runs, or the inevitable 4-15 weeks, affect your process.
Scheduling note, since I was asked on Twitter: My Rotowire column is scheduled for Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Fridays, and then with one floating day each week depending on the baseball schedule. Those days are almost always full slates, with mostly night games, allowing me to post this so you have time to read it and fade m...er, use my advice in whatever way you deem profitable.
Today is an exception, as the choppy early-season schedule leaves us with a second straight light Friday, just nine games. I'd hoped to wash out the taste of Wednesday with a deep card, but will once again keep it small. You can't force it, especially nine days into a 186-day season.
4 p.m. Dodgers -1.5 vs. Nationals (-148). So let's introduce a new concept today, the run line. Baseball betting is usually just about picking a side, as opposed to other major sports where you're betting into a spread. However, you can take teams plus or minus the runs, and in the online markets, you can often pick your spread.
It is rough to put your money down on a favorite at -315, risking a unit to get back about a third of one. Here, you're trading off a run to get a stronger return. I generally don't like to do this in baseball, but we're making an exception for the killing machine Dodgers, with their best starter by skills on the mound, facing Joe Ross, last seen dealing to a 5.48 ERA in 2019. The Dodgers got to reset their bullpen with yesterday's off day, too. Of their seven games this season, they have covered 1.5 runs in four; we'll count on them making it five today. 1 RWBuck
4:30 p.m. Rockies/Giants over 8 (-120). Oracle Park was a lousy place to hit until last year, when some changes -- some planned, some pandemic-related -- turned it into a bandbox for 30 games. Even prior to that, though, it wasn't a bad hitters' park in the daytime or to left and left-center field. This day game features late-period Johnny Cueto, throwing the kitchen sink up there for five innings, and the prize of the Nolan Arenado deal in Austin Gomber. Neither of these bullpens is good, nor are the outfield defenses, which matters at Oracle. Look for lots of hits on balls in play. 1 RWBuck
8 p.m. Rangers +163 over Padres. We'll wander back to Arlington for another bite of this apple. The Padres' lineup was already projected for regression based on their players' performances in 2020. In the absence of Fernando Tatis Jr., one of the few Padres with some growth potential, it looks quite shaky. Look for some picks against them in the coming weeks.
After allowing 25 runs in two losses to start the season, the Rangers have settled into being a bad team, not a miserable one. This is the first big test for Kohei Arihara, the Japanese import who eked out five one-run innings in his MLB debut with just one strikeout and some rough Statcast numbers. It was 52/48 whether I put this on the card or not, but hey, it's Friday. Go crazy. 1 RWBuck
