This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
The 2021 MLB season is now upon us and while bettors will be thinking about the first game of the season, the World Series, and everything in between, it's important to have a measure of all the teams competing before placing your wagers.
Read on for a team-by-team preview of the MLB National League.
What impact did COVID have on the team last year?
What offseason moves were made to strengthen or weaken the club?
What did the rest of the division do in the offseason?
Are they going to be buyers or sellers come July?
In this article, I've answered the above questions for each of the teams in the MLB National League to help get a better understanding of which Over/Under totals offer value and which teams might be in with a realistic chance of making it to the postseason.
TOTAL PROJECTED WAR BY DIVISION
NL EAST – 61
AL EAST – 63
NL WEST – 78
AL CENTRAL – 79
AL WEST – 81
NL CENTRAL – 103
NL East
I have a hard time picking any of the teams over their win totals in the toughest division in baseball, but I do like the Nationals to win the division.
Atlanta Braves 
2019 W-L record: 97-65 .599
2020 W-L record: 35-25 .583
2021 O/U win total: 91.5 .567
2021 Projected WAR 39.5 (9th)
Hitting – 23.3 (6th)
Pitching – 16.2 (8th)
- Starting – 12.6 (9th)
- Relief – 3.6 (9th)
Key Acquisitions/Prospects: Marcell Ozuna, Charlie Morton, Christian Pache, Drew Waters
Key Losses: Adam Duvall, Mark Melancon,
Outlook: I fully expected the Braves to make a play for Francisco Lindor or Matt Chapman to put them in contention with the Dodgers and Padres in the National League. I still think they will be a player for Chapman and they have the prospects to do it (mainly Drew Waters). In a division like this, they could easily finish first, second, or third so a wins total play is not an option for me.
I like the signing of Charlie Morton to give the pitching staff a veteran presence and the bullpen combo of Will Smith/Chris Martin is devastating. They still need a reliable 4th/5th starter as Drew Smyly and Kyle Wright are not strong enough.
New York Mets 
2019 W-L record:86-76 (.531)
2020 W-L record:26-34 (.433)
2021 O/U win total: 90.5 (.561)
2021 Projected WAR 43.1 (4th)
Hitting – 21.4 (10th)
Pitching – 21.7 (3rd)
- Starting – 17.0 (4th)
- Relief – 4.6 (2nd)
Key Acquisitions/Prospects: Francisco Lindor, Trevor May, Carlos Carrasco
Key Losses: Justin Wilson, Wilson Ramos, Michael Wacha
Outlook: Expectations are back for the Mets as they made the huge trade for Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco. I am leary about superstar players in their first year with a new team, and even more so when they switch leagues. Not only do they have to get used to all new pitchers but a different way of playing the game. The strength of this team is the pitching staff. The Mets have done a great job building depth in the starting rotation and the bullpen.
I'm bypassing the win total here and just going for the division win. They have the trade chips to go get a player by the trade deadline. I think Charlie Blackmon ends up in a Mets uniform by July.
The Bet: METS TO WIN NL EAST
Washington Nationals 
2019 W-L record: 93-69 .574
2020 W-L record: 26-34 .433
2021 O/U win total: 84.5 .524
2021 Projected WAR 35.7 (11th)
Hitting – 17.7 (16th)
Pitching – 18.0 (6th)
- Starting – 15.1(5th)
- Relief – 2.9 (13th)
Key Acquisitions/Prospects: Brad Hand, Josh Bell, Kyle Schwarber
Key Losses: Sean Doolittle, Adam Eaton
Outlook: The Nationals were financially challenged in the offseason, but priority number one, two, and three was get Juan Soto some lineup protection! They did that by acquiring Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber. While not superstars, they are still relatively young and have not hit their prime yet. A huge factor this year will be Victor Robles who has been hitting leadoff. If Robles develops into the player he was projected to be as a prospect, the Nationals will be a fun team to watch.
Everything will ride on Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg being able to stay healthy. The bullpen is finally better and not in the bottom five like it has been in years past. I like them to finish over their win total with an outside shot to win the division.
The Bet – NATIONALS OVER 84.5
Philadelphia Phillies 
2019 W-L record: 81-81 (.500)
2020 W-L record: 28-32 (.467)
2021 O/U win total: 80.5 (.500)
2021 Projected WAR 33.9 (12th)
Hitting – 18.2 (15th)
Pitching – 15.7 (10th)
- Starting – 13.0(8th)
- Relief – 2.7(16th)
Key Acquisitions/Prospects: Alec Bohm, Spencer Howard
Key Losses: Jake Arrieta
Outlook: The Phillies would probably be favored to win the NL Central and be second in others, but they are stuck in a very competitive NL East. Right now they are the 4th team in the division and I do not see how they can surpass the other three teams ahead of them without a significant trade to bolster the pen or lineup.
The Phillies have a lot of resources tied up in Bryce Harper and JT Realmuto which leaves them with very little room during the season. Also, they do not have significant trade pieces in the minors to even make a deal. It is not that they have gotten worse, but other teams in the division have gotten better or healthy.
Miami Marlins 
2019 W-L record:57-105 (.352)
2020 W-L record:31-29 ( .517 )
2021 O/U win total:71.5 (.444)
2021 Projected WAR 22.9 (25th)
Hitting – 11.0 (24th)
Pitching – 11.9 (24th)
- Starting – 10.0(25th)
- Relief – 1.9 (26th)
Key Acquisitions/Prospects: JJ Bleday, Jazz Chisholm, Sixto Sanchez, Adam Duvall
Key Losses: Brad Boxberger, Brandon Kintzler
Outlook: The Marlins were the Cinderella story of the 2020 baseball season by getting into the playoffs. But they did have the benefit of luck and a shortened season to help. While I think they have one of the best young pitching staffs in baseball, it is still that "developing". Their lineup lacks any kind of punch needed to score runs in bunches, which leads them to rely on station to station baseball which does not play well in 2021. Their win total is low at 71.5 and I think they will be very close to that and even be able to go over, but not enough for me to make a recommendation.
The Bet: LOOK TO BET UNDER IN MOST MARLINS GAMES, ESPECIALLY AT HOME
NL Central
Easily the worst division in baseball based on projected WAR, this division has a history of teams in the 80-82 win category which is why I am not looking at any overs, but more of the Brewers to win the division as they have the best pitching.
St Louis Cardinals 
2019 W-L record: 91-71 .562
2020 W-L record: 30-28 .517
2021 O/U win total: 86.5 .537
2021 Projected WAR 31.8 (16th)
Hitting – 17.5 (17th)
Pitching – 14.3 (18th)
- Starting – 11.5 (13th)
- Relief – 2.8 (17th)
Key Acquisitions/Prospects: Nolan Arenado, Dylan Carlson
Key Losses: Kolten Wong, Dexter Fowler
Outlook: The Cardinals are a very public team in the betting community which means you should always look to play them under or fade. 2021 is no different as the trade for Nolan Arenado made a big splash and built expectations. But we have seen this from the Cardinals before. They make a big move, build expectations, and still fall flat. I think that is the case here again in 2021 as they are a middle-of-the-pack team in the worst division in baseball.
The Bet: BET ON CARDINALS UNDER 86.5
Cincinnati Reds 
2019 W-L record: 75-87 .463
2020 W-L record: 31-29 .517
2021 O/U win total: 82.5 .512
2021 Projected WAR 26.0 (21st)
Hitting – 10.3 (26th)
Pitching – 15.7 (11th)
- Starting – 13.2 (7th)
- Relief – 2.5 (18th)
Key Acquisitions/Prospects: Sean Doolittle
Key Losses: Trevor Bauer, Archie Bradley
Outlook: The Reds looked to be headed in the right direction after going 31-29 last year, but losing Trevor Bauer hurts. Not as much as you might think because they have some solid starting pitching, but they are a bottom-five team in hitting. When you look at some of the names in the lineup, you would think they are better than that, and perhaps if players like Jesse Winker and Nick Senzel can break out that will happen. My concern with the Reds is that come July they will be sellers, so any over bet is off the table. I would lean towards the under or no play.
Chicago Cubs 
2019 W-L record: 84-78 (.519)
2020 W-L record: 34-26 (.567)
2021 O/U win total: 78.5 (.487)
2021 Projected WAR 29.0 (19th)
Hitting –18.3 (14th)
Pitching – 10.7 (27th)
- Starting – 8.2 (28th)
- Relief – 2.5 (19th)
Key Acquisitions/Prospects: Joc Pederson, Jake Arrieta, Zach Davies
Key Losses: Yu Darvish, Kyle Schwarber, Tyler Chatwood, Jon Lester, Jose Quintana, Albert Almora
Outlook: It is hard to imagine a team like the Cubs in a major market with a high payroll to be in this position, but they are. Their win total is not even to be a .500 team. After years of trading off every prospect for a win now mentality, it has all caught up to them. The loss of Yu Darvish is huge, but they were in a tough spot, and probably did not make sense to offer him a long-term deal with a team in flux. With not much on the farm ready for the majors, it will be a long year for the Cubs. But playing in the worst division in baseball will mean they float around .500.
Pittsburgh Pirates 
2019 W-L record: 69-93 (.426)
2020 W-L record: 19-41 (.317)
2021 O/U win total: 58.5
2021 Projected WAR 15.1 (30th)
Hitting – 6.6 (28th)
Pitching – 8.5 (29th)
- Starting – 7.4 (29th)
- Relief –1.1 (30th)
Key Acquisitions/Prospects: Ke'Bryan Hayes
Key Losses: NONE
Outlook: The Pirates are looking like the worst team in baseball with a bottom three projected WAR in all phases. They do not have much outside of Ke'Bryan Hayes and any assets come July will be dealt. They only won 32% of their games last year, and 59 wins would put them at 36%. It is going to be a long year in Pittsburgh and I like them to go under their win total.
The Bet– PIRATES UNDER 58.5
Milwaukee Brewers 
2019 W-L record: 89-73 (.549)
2020 W-L record: 29-31 (.483)
2021 O/U win total: 82.5 (.512)
2021 Projected WAR 31.4 (17th)
Hitting – 14.7 (20th)
Pitching – 16.7 (7th)
- Starting – 12.3(10th)
- Relief – 4.3 (6th)
Key Acquisitions/Prospects: Kolten Wong, Jackie Bradley Jr., Travis Shaw
Key Losses: NONE
Outlook: On paper, the Brewers lineup does not possess the same fear as in years past, but getting Christian Yelich to rebound into MVP form will be a start. The signing of Kolten Wong was huge for the infield defense as they can slide Keston Hiura over to first base. Also, the additions of Jackie Bradley Jr and Travis Shaw will help.
The Brewers have become the Indians of the National League in that they are really developing pitchers, which has been key for them as a smaller market team. When I look at the division no team really stands out, but the Brewers pitching does and that will carry them. While I think a lot of these teams are 78-82 wins, the Brewers to win the division would be the play here.
The Bet – BREWERS WIN NL CENTRAL
NL West
LA Dodgers 
2019 W-L record:106-56 (.654)
2020 W-L record: 43-17 (.717)
2021 O/U win total: 102.5 (.629)
2021 Projected WAR 51.1 (1st)
Hitting – 29.9 (1st)
Pitching – 21.2 (4th)
- Starting – 17.1(2nd)
- Relief – 4.1 (7th)
Key Acquisitions/Prospects: Trevor Bauer, Gavin Lux
Key Losses: Joc Pederson, Jake McGee, Alex Wood, Enrique Hernandez
Outlook: The Dodgers finally got the monkey off their back and won the World Series. Albeit, it was a shortened season, but still they were playing .700 plus baseball. Pretty quiet for most of the off-season, they made the huge splash signing Trevor Bauer. Most of the offense is intact from 2020, and they should continue to lead the league in runs scored. Betting on a team to win over 100 games is a daunting task because it assumes that nothing will go wrong. In the post-COVID era I am still leary and the Dodgers could easily JUST win 97-99 games.
San Diego Padres 
2019 W-L record: 70-92 (.432)
2020 W-L record: 37-23 (.617)
2021 O/U win total: 94.5 (.586)
2021 Projected WAR 44.9 (3rd)
Hitting –23.1(7th)
Pitching – 21.8 (2nd)
- Starting – 17.3 (1st)
- Relief – 4.5 (4th)
Key Acquisitions/Prospects: Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Ha-seong Kim, Blake Snell, Mark Melancon
Key Losses: Mitch Moreland, Trevor Rosenthal, Garrett Richards, Kirby Yates
Outlook: The Padres were slowly rebuilding forever it seems and stockpiling a ridiculous amount of prospects. Well, they finally decided to pull the trigger on cashing in some of those chips to add assets to the major league club. The Padres rebuild started by signing Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado, but then watching the emergence of superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. The Padres are clearly going for it all in 2021 and I do not blame them. Most of this team is in its prime and have a 3-5 year window to win a championship. Anything can happen in the postseason, and with an ace like Yu Darvish along with eventually Mike Clevinger, they are in position. I'm taking the value here on the Padres over the Dodgers. The West is weak after the top 2 teams and I think 95-100 for both are in play.
The Bet – PADRES OVER 94.5 WINS, PADRES WIN WORLD SERIES
Colorado Rockies 
2019 W-L record:71-91 (.438)
2020 W-L record:26-34 (.433)
2021 O/U win total: 63.5 (.395)
2021 Projected WAR 16.2 (29th)
Hitting – 4.7 (29th)
Pitching – 11.5 (26th)
- Starting – 10.1(26th)
- Relief – 1.5 (28th)
Key Acquisitions/Prospects: C.J. Cron
Key Losses: Nolan Arenado, Wade Davis
Outlook: The most lopsided division in baseball in terms of two powerhouses and 3 of the bottom third in baseball means that the unders will be in play for the Rockies, Giants, and Diamondbacks. I definitely like the under on the Rockies as they will continue to be sellers during the season. I would expect Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon to be dealt as there is no reason to keep them on the books after they dealt Nolan Arenado and still gave the Cardinals salary relief. This organization is one of the worst-run in baseball and 63.5 wins is generous.
The Bet - ROCKIES UNDER 63.5 WINS
San Francisco Giants 
2019 W-L record:77-85 (.475)
2020 W-L record: 29-31 (.483)
2021 O/U win total: 75.5 (.469)
2021 Projected WAR 25.2 (22nd)
Hitting – 12.6 (22nd)
Pitching – 12.6 (22nd)
- Starting – 10.5 (20th)
- Relief – 2.1 (23rd)
Key Acquisitions/Prospects: Joey Bart, Alex Wood, Tommy La Stella
Key Losses: Drew Smyly
Outlook: While the Giants may not have much at the big league level at least they are starting to develop some high-level prospects down the line. They should be better but it is at least 2-3 years away. They will benefit by playing the Rockies and Diamondbacks who I think they are better than, but then get destroyed by the Dodgers and Padres. Their 2021 win total has them at a win percentage a tad lower than 2019 or 2020, so a slight lean on the over 75.5.
Arizona Diamondbacks 
2019 W-L record:85-77 (.525)
2020 W-L record:25-35 (.417)
2021 O/U win total: 74.5 (.462)
2021 Projected WAR 25.0 (23rd)
Hitting – 12.7 (21st)
Pitching – 12.4 (23rd)
- Starting – 10.3(24th)
- Relief – 2.1(24th)
Key Acquisitions/Prospects: Joakim Soria, Tyler Clippard
Key Losses: N/A
Outlook: The Diamondbacks had a lot go right in 2019 and overachieved tremendously. This team is not built a very strong foundation and has had a lot of moving parts. The trade of Paul Goldschmidt has worked out in that it gave them controllable pieces for several years. But the minor league system while solid, still has players that are 1-2 years away from making an impact. 74.5 wins puts them about in between their 2019 and 2020 win percentage. The problem is that I think 2019 was a fluke and 2020 was more in line with who this team really is. Strong play on the under.
The Bet: DIAMONDBACKS UNDER 74.5 WINS
