This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Last article: 1-3, -2.90 RW Bucks
Season Record: 22-33-2, -14.32 RW Bucks
I'm honing in on both Big Apple teams on opposite ends of a busy Saturday ledger, trusting what I see as starting pitching advantages to largely guide my recommendations.
Tigers at Yankees, 1:10 pm EDT
Starting Pitchers: Beau Brieske vs. Luis Severino
The Pick: Yankees -0.5 – 1st 5 innings (-170) for 1 RW Buck (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Secondary Pick: Yankees -1.5 (-135) for 1 RW Buck (Caesars Sportsbook)
Brieske impressed over his first four starts of the season, but he has a 7.20 ERA, 1.67 WHIP and 3.0 HR/9 in 15 innings in his last three starts. The right-hander has particularly struggled against right-handed hitters, which the Yankees boast a dangerous array of, and he is 0-3 with a 5.59 ERA and 1.55 WHIP on the road. The Bronx Bombers have both the patience and power to exploit Brieske's issues with control and keeping the ball in the park. The Yankees have a 9.8 percent walk rate against righties at home in the last month and have already posted 93 XBH against righties overall on the season.
Severino's impressive comeback season includes a 3-1 record, 3.38 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, and some of his peripheral numbers he's been even better than that. Severino has a .213 xBA, .284 wOBA and a 2.87 xERA, and he's facing a Tigers team that has posted a 27.4 percent strikeout rate, .192 average, MLB-low .248 wOBA and MLB-worst -17.7 wRAA against righties on the road in the last month. Then, Detroit ranks last in baseball with just 0.9 runs per first five innings per road game and New York boasts an AL-high +98 run differential.
Mets at Dodgers, 10:10 pm EDT
Starting Pitchers: David Peterson vs. Walker Buehler
The Pick: Dodgers -0.5 - 1st 5 innings (-125) for 1 RW Buck (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Peterson has a somewhat deceptive 3.03 ERA, as he's had a 5.17 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 4.6 BB/9 in 15.2 innings in his last three starts. The young southpaw also sports a pretty sizable gulf between his .285 wOBA and .329 xwOBA, and has a 3.94 xERA. The Dodgers make for a dangerous adversary as well, as L.A. boasts a .269 average, .818 OPS, .356 wOBA and 7.5 wRAA against lefties at home the last month.
Buehler has emerged victorious in his last five decisions, and the big right-hander has yielded more than three earned runs only twice in 10 starts. He has been atypically more hittable at Dodger Stadium this season compared to past years, but he's held current Mets bats to a collective .139/.179/.250 batting line in 80 career plate appearances. New York has a fairly middling .318 wOBA against righties on the road in the last month as well, and the Mets rank in the bottom 10 of MLB with 2.12 runs per first five innings per road game.
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