This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: Expert MLB Props for
Wednesday, May 8
MLB fans: Get in on the action at BetMGM with the BetMGM bonus code for a first-bet bonus welcome offer worth up to $1,500 when using code ROTOBONUS. BetMGM is one of several leading sportsbooks that accept credit card and PayPal.
2024 Regular-Season Betting Record: 3-5 (-2.24 RW Bucks)
2024 Regular-Season Props Betting Record: 6-7 (-2.09 RW Bucks)
I'm honing in on three evening games Wednesday night for my trio of player props, focusing on three hitters, including one in a Coors Field matchup, who I think are in good spots to produce.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals Best Bets
We'll kick things off with the Orioles' Ryan Mountcastle, who's off to another encouraging start this season in the form of a .280/.328/.472 slash line through his first 32 games.
As has been the trend throughout his career, Mountcastle has been putting in some excellent work against lefties. The 27-year-old boasts a .311 average, .958 OPS and .416 wOBA versus southpaws, alongside a 174 wRC+.
Mountcastle gets a crack at a young lefty to start the game Wednesday in Mitchell Parker, who's admittedly been very impressive over his first four big-league turns. The 2020 fifth-round pick has yet to give up a homer over his first 21.1 innings and has an impressive 19:4 K:BB as well.
Nevertheless, Mountcastle has an experience edge and a powerful bat that's producing a solid 11.6 percent barrel rate and co-career-high 46.3 percent hard-hit rate, per Statcast. Mountcastle also has a massive 28.6 percent line-drive rate and 33.3 percent HR/FB rate versus southpaws.
Moreover, Mountcastle has five extra-base hits (out of 11 total) when facing fastball and breaking pitchers from lefties, which are the two pitch types Parker most often deploys in opposite-handed matchups.
Mountcastle has 59 total bases in 32 games already, furthering the case for this prop to hit at a solid price in a game the Orioles are projected for a healthy 5.2 runs as of Wednesday morning.
MLB Picks for Orioles vs. Nationals
- Ryan Mountcastle Over 1.5 Total Bases (-117 on BetRivers Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins Best Bets
We go from a righty bat that picks on lefties to the opposite scenario for this prop. The Mariners' Josh Rojas has been one of Seattle's most consistent hitters in the first month-plus, generating an elite .345 average and .969 OPS across his first 95 plate appearances.
That includes a .364 average and 1.028 OPS versus righties, against which Rojas has logged all but seven of his plate appearances. The majority of the damage Rojas has exerted has been of the small-ball variety, however, as 20 of his 29 hits have been singles.
That suits us just fine for a prop that cashes if Rojas records at least one knock Wednesday, especially considering the starting pitching matchup against the Twins' Chris Paddack. The veteran right-hander is struggling against lefty hitters yet again this season, allowing a .343 average and .373 wOBA in a 74-batter sample in that split.
Rojas has hit safely in all but six starts this season, and it's also worth noting Twins relievers have pitched to an 8.59 ERA, .344 average and .434 wOBA against the 37 left-handed batters they've faced thus far in May.
MLB Picks for Mariners vs Twins
- Josh Rojas Over 0.5 singles (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Baseball fans present in the Tar Heel State can claim thousands of dollars in bonuses with North Carolina betting promos this baseball season now that North Carolina sports betting is officially live. The Caesars Sportsbook North Carolina promo code gets new customers $250 in bonus bets after making an initial wager of at least $10.
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies Best Bets
I felt compelled to include at least one hitter prop from tonight's Coors Field matchup, and LaMonte Wade represents an excellent path to potential profits against a starting pitcher in Peter Lambert who's traditionally struggled against left-handed hitters.
Wade has gotten off to an excellent start in 2024, producing a .351 average and .927 OPS across his first 101 plate appearances. The veteran has a massive 20.8 percent walk rate as well, and he's compiled an even higher 22.6 percent figure in that category – along with a .366 average and .441 wOBA – when facing righties on the road.
Wade has been hitting second or third in the order exclusively, setting him up for plenty of run-scoring opportunities. While the hitters behind him haven't always cashed those in as evidenced by his modest 12 runs thus far, Wednesday night should have a good chance of being an exception considering San Francisco's 5.5-run projected total at Coors.
Lambert could certainly do his part to get Wade on base, as he's surrendered a .375 average and .456 wOBA to left-handed hitters. Then, Rockies relievers may also be good facilitators for this prop, considering they've pitched to a 5.47 ERA, .292 BAA and .359 wOBA against the 114 left-handed bats they've faced at Coors since the start of the season.
MLB Picks for Giants vs Rockies
- LaMonte Wade Over 0.5 runs scored (-123 on Caesars Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Ryan Mountcastle Over 1.5 Total Bases (-117 on BetRivers Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Josh Rojas Over 0.5 singles (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- LaMonte Wade Over 0.5 runs scored (-123 on Caesars Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
