This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets at FanDuel Sportsbook Tonight: Free Expert MLB Picks for Wednesday, June 15
RotoWire.com's Juan Blanco has dug into the FanDuel Sportsbook to identify his MLB bets and MLB player props to target today.
Last article: 2-2 (-0.65 RW Bucks)
Season Record: 26-36-4 (-14.64 RW Bucks)
We were within a hair of a 3-1 or 4-0 night in my most recent article Saturday had the Dodgers not left a whopping 14 men on base against the Giants, but we'll look to make up for it Wednesday with a matchup apiece in each league that I feel feature some particularly vulnerable pitchers.
All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers: Bruce Zimmermann vs. Jose Berrios
Every aspect of Zimmermann's statistical profile seems like an invitation to target him, especially with a Blue Jays team that's been productive against left-handed pitching at home this season. Toronto has a robust 11.7 percent walk rate, .349 wOBA, .798 OPS and 5.9 wRAA in that split since the start of the season, while Zimmermann comes in with 2-5 mark and 5.52 ERA plus a career-high 13.5 percent barrel rate, .316 xBA, .610 xSLG, .403 xwOBA, and 6.46 xERA allowed. He's also been hit hard by right-handed hitters on the road (.324 BAA, .431 wOBA), and the Jays' lineup is loaded with righty mashers that can do plenty of damage.
Berrios shapes up as much more trustworthy than his opposite number, and although he's had a couple of stumbles of his own, he's been largely reliable at home despite the hitter-friendly environment. The right-hander sports a 3-0 record and 3.00 ERA at Rogers Centre, and he's facing an Orioles team that is slated to be without its best hitter in Trey Mancini (hand). Baltimore is also averaging the fourth-fewest runs per first five innings per road game (1.8) and has just a .226 average, .159 ISO, .295 wOBA and -4.4 wRAA against righties on the road in the last month.
MLB Best Bets for Orioles at Blue Jays
The Pick: Blue Jays first to 2 runs (-164) for 1.64 RW Bucks
Secondary Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 – 1st 5 innings (-110) for 1.10 RW Bucks
Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockies
Starting Pitchers: Konnor Pilkington vs. Austin Gomber
Pilkington has been impressive overall during his first seven big-league starts and has demonstrated the same propensity for keeping the ball in the park (1 HR allowed over 22.2 innings) that was prominent during his minors career, but he gets his first taste of Coors on Wednesday. The young southpaw has also had struggles with control (5.6 BB/9), which could turn out to be highly problematic against a Rockies team sporting a solid 8.8 percent walk rate, 16.6 percent strikeout rate, .291 average, .852 OPS, .369 wOBA and 9.4 wRAA against lefties at home since May 1.
Gomber is mired in what is arguably a career-worst funk, as he's pitched to a career-high 6.17 ERA and owns a bloated 1.42 WHIP. He's had plenty of trouble at Coors as well, where he's pitched to a 1-3 record, 6.21 ERA, 1.59 WHIP and 1.9 HR/9 while seeing a significant drop in strikeouts, leading to a 5.6 K/9. The opposing Guardians haven't shown a lot of pop against lefties on the road since May 1, but an impressively modest 13.2 percent strikeout rate in that split coupled with a lowish .268 BABIP suggests an environment like Coors could turn their luck around some when putting the ball in play.
MLB Best Bets for Guardians at Rockies
The Pick: Over 6.5 total runs - 1st 5 innings (-115) for 1.15 RW Bucks
Secondary Pick: Guardians +0.5 – 1st 5 innings (-130) for 1.30 RW Bucks
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Blue Jays first to 2 runs (-164) for 1.64 RW Bucks
- Blue Jays -1.5 – 1st 5 innings (-110) for 1.10 RW Bucks
- Guardians-Rockies Over 6.5 total runs - 1st 5 innings (-115) for 1.15 RW Bucks
- Guardians +0.5 – 1st 5 innings (-130) for 1.30 RW Bucks
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