This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets and Expert Picks for
Tuesday, June 4
YTD 80-80-1
Prior article 2-3 (-1.75 units)
POWER OUTAGE
Scoring and home runs continue to be down and UNDERS are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on OVERS on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value. You can add unearned runs, hits allowed and strikeouts to the pitcher props I am focused on. Until we see a major change in offense with the weather heating up or major line/odds adjustments, I would continue to hammer pitcher props.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. As we enter the end of May, the temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5 inning play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an UNDER.
MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
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Milwaukee Brewers 
at Philadelphia Phillies 
The Phillies are on a 24-6 run as home favorites in their last 30 games and the Brewers are playing solid as well going 7-3 in their last 10. I will contintue to ride the streaks that have a significant amount of length to it, especially with Cristopher Sanchez against Colin Rea.
Sanchez has allowed less than 3.0 earned runs in eight out of 11 starts with strong home splits. His home numbers are 2.03 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 10.7 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and 0.0 HR/9 versus the road numbers of 3.68 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 5.8 K/9, 4.0 BB/9.
Rea and Jared Koenig are expected to be part of a bulk relief outing, which has me liking the Phillies even more. Rea's numbers on the road are significantly worse than at home. I like taking strong offenses at home against weak pitching when laying -1.5 runs.
MLB Picks for Brewers at Phillies
- Phillies -1.5 runs for 2 units (FanDuel +125)
Minnesota Twins 
at New York Yankees 
Much like the Phillies, I will continue to ride the Yankees, especially with Luis Gil against Bailey Ober. The Yankees feast on mediocre pitching and Ober gives up a ton of home runs (2.0 in his last six starts) which is not good against Juan Soto and Aaron Judge.
Gil has hit his OVER recorded-outs props and UNDER earned runs allowed in six straight starts. Not only is he making a run at the American League Rookie of the Year, but also the Cy Young Award race.
I usually stay away from home run props, but this is Homer Tuesday and Soto/Judge look to be in a prime spot.
MLB Picks for Twins at Yankees
- Yankees -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM +120)
- Luis Gil OVER 17.5 recorded outs for 1 unit (FanDuel +108)
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Atlanta Braves 
at Boston Red Sox 
There is one trend that I have been locked in on for a while now and it is the Red Sox at home against left-handed pitching. Between the injuries and lineup construction, the Sox are in a very difficult spot when these two things happen. Add in Max Fried, who is throwing well and Kutter Crawford, who has been struggling recently, and we have a nice play on the Braves.
The Red Sox have a 29.4 strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers at home, which is five points higher than the next team. They are also bottom five in wRC+ for that split at 63.
Fried has allowed more than three earned runs in just two starts out of 11. Over his last seven starts, he has a 1.43 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and just over seven innings pitched.
MLB Picks for Braves at Red Sox
- Braves -1.5 runs for 2 units (BetRivers -103)
Cincinnati Reds 
at Colorado Rockies 
I love finding spots to take the Rockies at home and this is one of them. Frankie Montas has a 5.82 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 5.0 K/9, 2.9 BB/9 and 1.7 HR/9 over his last four starts. The Rockies are batting .270 at home against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days for an average of 5.1 runs per game.
The Rockies can hit this OVER pretty easily with one rally against Montas, who does not get many swings and misses along with a lot of hard contact allowed.
MLB Picks for Reds at Rockies
- Rockies OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -105)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Phillies -1.5 runs for 2 units (FanDuel +125)
- Yankees -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM +120)
- Luis Gil OVER 17.5 recorded outs for 1 unit (FanDuel +108)
- Braves -1.5 runs for 2 units (BetRivers -103)
- Rockies OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -105)
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