This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets and Expert Picks for
Wednesday, June 5
YTD 83-82-1
Prior article 3-2 ( +1.24 units)
POWER OUTAGE
Scoring and home runs continue to be down and UNDERS are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on OVERS on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value. You can add unearned runs, hits allowed and strikeouts to the pitcher props I am focused on. Until we see a major change in offense with the weather heating up or major line/odds adjustments, I would continue to hammer pitcher props.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. As we enter the end of May, the temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5 inning play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an UNDER.
MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
MLB fans: Get in on the action at BetMGM with the BetMGM bonus code for a first-bet bonus welcome offer worth up to $1,500 when using code ROTOBONUS. BetMGM is one of several leading sportsbooks that accept credit card and PayPal.
Baltimore Orioles 
at Toronto Blue Jays
There has been a good amount of money on the Orioles in this game as they opened +116 and have moved to -102. The line move is understandable as the Orioles are a much better team than the Blue Jays right now.
The Orioles are 8-2, 13-7, and 20-10 in their last 10/20/30 games with an impressive 18-8 on the road. Albert Suarez has been a good find for the Orioles and has moved into the starting rotation due to multiple injuries. He has pitched five games with at least four innings of work and his numbers have been good - 1.85 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, and 0.4 HR/9.
Jose Berrios has great home/road splits and it is hard to go against him here, but the starting pitching matchup is a lot closer than what most people think and the Orioles will be able to get to Berrios (six home runs allowed in last five starts) with the long ball. The O's have the highest ISO against right-handed pitching on the road over the last month.
MLB Picks for Orioles at Blue Jays
- Orioles ML for 1.5 unit (FanDuel -102)
Minnesota Twins 
at New York Yankees 
It is hard not to ride the Yankees right now, especially at home against the Twins, whom they have OWNED for a long time. They are 25-5 at home against the Twins going back to 2014. Plus, the Yankees are hot, going 8-2, 16-4 and 23-7 in their last 10/20/30 games.
Carlos Rodon has some great home/road splits, but one bad road start against the Orioles is really skewing the data. Chris Paddack has been decent at times, but both of these pitchers faced each other on May 12 and he allowed 12 hits along with five earned runs.
The Yankees' pitching has shut down the Twins in four games for a 19-2 total, so if you wanted to look at the Twins' under team total or Rodon's earned runs under I can see that.
MLB Picks for Twins at Yankees
- Yankees -1.5 runs for 2 units (FanDuel +115)
Baseball fans present in the Tar Heel State can claim thousands of dollars in bonuses with North Carolina betting promos this baseball season now that North Carolina sports betting is officially live. The Caesars Sportsbook North Carolina promo code gets new customers $250 in bonus bets after making an initial wager of at least $10.
Detroit Tigers 
at Texas Rangers 
The Tigers have feasted on right-handed pitching all year and Jose Urena has been lucky to say the least. Most of his numbers are bad beside ERA with a 1.44 WHIP, 5.3 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and 1.8 HR/9 in the last month.
On the other side, Kenta Maeda has also been bad with a 6.25 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 2.2 HR/9 overall, but the road numbers are just putrid - 10.80 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, 3.0 HR/9 in 15 innings.
While this Rangers offense has yet to get going, I still can see them getting to Maeda earlier along with the Tigers knocking Urena around.
MLB Picks for Tigers at Rangers
- Tigers/Rangers OVER 8.5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -112)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Orioles ML for 1.5 unit (FanDuel -102)
- Yankees -1.5 runs for 2 units (FanDuel +115)
- Tigers/Rangers OVER 8.5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -112)
- BONUS PLAYER PROP - Zach Eflin UNDER 0.5 walks for 1 unit (DraftKings +125)
Stay up to date on the best MLB picks and props every day of the season using RotoWire's props tool. Looking to sign up at a new sportsbook? There are thousands of dollars in bonus bets up for grabs when you take advantage of the best sportsbook promo codes available on the best sports betting apps.
