This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: San Diego Padres at San Francisco
While we are back in the full swing of the NFL season, the MLB has some red-hot playoff races going on right now. Of course, this gets lost on the back burner this time of year, but we have a loaded MLB slate for this Friday evening, headlined by Dylan Cease. In a big game out West, how do the Padres fare?
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San Diego Padres (-118) @ San Francisco Giants (+100) | Total: 6.5
Although the Giants are virtually out of the postseason race, the Padres are more than alive. San Diego being 5.5 games out of first place in the National League West at this point of the year makes it extremely unlikely they steal the division away from the Dodgers. The Wild Card is theirs for the taking. The flaking Friars are still 1.5 games up on the Mets, who have come out of nowhere lately to continue their ridiculous surge for a playoff berth. After losing four of their last six games, including a three-game set to San Francisco last week, how do the Padres get back to domination?
Dylan Cease has reinvented himself in San Diego. He's trending towards a career low in walks (60) since becoming a full-time starter, and the strikeouts have continued to climb, notching at least 200 punchouts in four straight years. His fastball has picked up more steam than usual. There are a lot of similarities we're seeing to the guy who should have won the American League Cy Young in 2022 despite a high 3.71 ERA.
His last three starts have been on the disappointing side, allowing 11 earned runs in just 15.1 innings. In his last outing (against the Giants), he surrendered four earned runs over six innings, which isn't bad but needs to be better at this juncture. The Giants' lineup is getting resurrection campaigns from Matt Chapman (26 taters) and Michael Conforto (16 homers) to go along with some other contributors. For Cease to win this battle, he'll have to be efficient and hit his spots better this time around.
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On the flip side, Logan Webb is on the bump for San Francisco. Aside from a couple of horrific outings against the Blue Jays in July and the Marlins on September 1st, Webb has been a wizard at home this year. His home 2.67 ERA doesn't even do it justice. Out of the 29 earned runs he's allowed at home (over 97.2 IP/14 starts), 13 came in those two disasters. Eleven of those 14 starts have been quality ones.
Last week against San Diego, he may have gotten a bit lucky to walk away allowing three earned and 10 hits in six innings. On paper, this is a significant matchup advantage for Webb and the Giants. The Padres' offense is deep and dangerous, though, so he'll have his work cut out for him with Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, Fernando Tatis Jr. and more.
I've been holding a Padres World Series ticket (30/1) for the last couple of months, so I'm hoping this team can go into the playoffs hot. However, in this game, I have to put my hopes aside and go with the better matchup. As much as I want San Diego to win, especially with Cease on the mound, I'm rolling with the Giants as the home underdog. You can't give me Webb at even money with the way he's been in his own ballpark this year.
Pick: Giants ML (+100 FanDuel Sportsbook)
