Minor League Barometer: Risers, Fallers on the Farm

This past week proved to be a mixed bag for some of the top pitching prospects in baseball. 19-year-old Julio Urias made his major league debut Friday, becoming the first teenager to start a game in the bigs since Felix Hernandez in 2005. Urias showed poise and promise, but lasted just 2.2 innings, allowing three runs on five hits and an uncharacteristic four walks. He did fan three batters, but was sent back to Triple-A following the game. Still, Urias will almost certainly be back with the Dodgers later this year.

Meanwhile, St. Louis Cardinals phenom Alex Reyes returned from suspension and picked up right where he left off last season. In two starts for Triple-A Memphis in a span of nine innings, Reyes allowed just one run while fanning 15 batters. His strikeout potential is massive; Reyes fanned a staggering 151 batters in 101.1 innings last season across three levels. As long as he can maintain his control, the sky is the limit for the 21-year-old right-hander.
Who else is surging, and who is sputtering as the summer draws near? The Minor League Barometer is at your service.

UPGRADE

Jorge Bonifacio, OF, KC – The brother of speedster Emilio Bonifacio, Jorge has more power than his older sibling. The younger Bonifacio clubbed 17 homers in 2015 at Double-A, though he hit just .240. Finally bumped up to Triple-A, the 22-year-old is having his best season to date. Through 46 games, Jorge is slashing .311/.376/.559 with nine home runs and 37 RBI. He is on pace to shatter his previous career high in home runs. Bonifacio also played some third base in the past, and the Royals just suffered two devastating injuries on one collision earlier this month. Third baseman Mike Moustakas tore his ACL and will miss the remainder of the season, while outfielder Alex Gordon broke a bone in his wrist and will miss at least a month. That could open the door for Bonifacio, particularly if Cheslor Cuthbert can't cut it as the starter at the hot corner. Cuthbert is also nursing a mild quad injury.

JaCoby Jones, SS, DET – Like Reyes mentioned above, Jones returned from a drug suspension recently. The 24-year-old shortstop has been scorching since coming back to the field, hitting .348/.404/.696 with three home runs and 13 RBI in 11 games for Double-A Erie. Jones is a toolsy infielder who hit 16 home runs and swiped 25 bags between High-A and Double-A in 2015. Traded from the Pirates in the Joakim Soria deal last season, Jones does tend to strike out too much, though the Tigers do not have a very deep farm system, and current shortstop Jose Iglesias is all glove. If the Tigers need an offensive spark, Jones could see the majors before the 2016 season concludes.

Tyler Jay, P, MIN – A first-round selection in the 2015 draft, Jay has been as good as advertised in 2016. In eight starts this season -- a span of 43.2 innings -- Jay has a 2.89 ERA and 44:13 K:BB. He has four pitches, though his best two offerings consist of his fastball and slider. Since he was a college closer, the development of the curveball and changeup will go a long ways toward determining if he can become a future frontline rotation piece. Likewise, he is not the biggest guy at 6-foot-1, 185-lbs, so it remains to be seen if he can handle the rigors of being a starter. Still, Jay is smart with stellar command, and it certainly helps that he's a southpaw. Once Jose Berrios returns to the big club, Jay will be the top pitching prospect in the Minnesota organization.

Harrison Bader, OF, STL – A third-round pick in last year's draft, Bader was considered a well-rounded prospect, though none of his tools were said to stand out. Since entering the minors, it appears that all of Bader's tools are surpassing expectations. In 46 games at Double-A, the 21-year-old outfielder is batting .333/.379/.568 with 11 home runs, 32 RBI and seven stolen bases. He's third in the Texas League in home runs and batting. If we're being picky, Bader has been caught stealing nine times. However, it is difficult to argue with the overall results. Other than Stephen Piscotty, the Cardinals outfield has been less than impressive this season. As such, Bader could force his way to the big club by the end of 2016.

CHECK STATUS

Casey Gillaspie, 1B, TB – Gillaspie had a decent first full season in the minors in 2015, but has really turned up the heat this year. A switch-hitting first baseman with baseball in his blood, Casey smacked 16 home runs in 64 games at Low-A last year, but had his season cut short by a wrist injury after 13 games at High-A. Now healthy, Gillaspie is slashing a stellar .311/.441/.588 with nine home runs and 23 RBI through 45 games at Double-A. Gillaspie's plate discipline has been superior this season, as he has more walks (36) than strikeouts (35). It remains to been seen if he will keep his average up, but it does not seem as though he is getting proper publicity at this time, particularly with the well traveled and underperforming Logan Morrison currently manning first base in the majors.

Tyler Viza, P, PHI – An uptick in strikeouts has created an increase in attention toward Viza. After striking out just 6.53 batters per nine innings at Low-A last year, Viza is now fanning over a batter per inning through eight starts this season. In 43.2 innings, Viza has punched out 49 batters. His control has also been tremendous, as he has issued just seven walks over that span. Has Viza finally discovered the success that will place him at an elite level, or is this merely a mirage? Only time will tell, but Viza is experiencing something of a renaissance in 2016.

Dan Vogelbach, 1B, CHC – Vogelbach would be the perfect designated hitter. The burly first baseman does not move particularly well, but has always shown that he can hit. Unfortunately, Vogelbach is a member of an organization that resides in the National League. He is also blocked by Anthony Rizzo at the big league level. Unless Rizzo gets hurt, Vogelbach is stuck in the minors for the foreseeable future. That being said, he is having a nice season at the plate. The 23-year-old is hitting .299/.416/.487 with seven home runs and 33 RBI in 45 games. Vogelbach could end up being trade bait if the Cubs feel the need to improve somewhere as they march towards the postseason.

DJ Peterson, 3B, SEA – Many pundits considered Peterson to be the purest hitter in the 2013 draft, and his 2014 campaign did not disappoint. Peterson blasted 31 home runs while knocking in 111 runs between High-A and Double-A that year. However, his average took a nosedive, and he was downright woeful in 2015. Peterson batted just .223 in 93 games at Double-A. Perhaps even more curiously, his power was completely sapped, as he hit just seven home runs. Peterson is still honing his craft at Double-A to begin the 2016 campaign, and the 24-year-old has been mediocre at best. Peterson is batting .244 with five home runs and 26 RBI in 47 games. However, on the bright side, Peterson has been surging of late, hitting .333 with three home runs and six RBI over the last 10 contests. Peterson may finally be turning the corner -- or this may just be a temporary fix for the first-rounder, whose stock has certainly taken a hit.

DOWNGRADE

Kodi Medeiros, P, MIL – Medeiros was a first-round pick in the 2014 draft but has struggled with his command during his brief professional career. He had a 4.44 ERA at Low-A in 2015, largely due to issuing too many walks. In 2016, both walks and hits have been his downfall, leading to a bloated 6.35 ERA at High-A. The 20-year-old lefty does have 40 strikeouts in 39.2 innings, but has also walked 26 batters over that span. In addition, opposing batters are hitting a healthy .324 against him. Medeiros is still young and working out the kinks in his delivery, but it is clear he has not lived up to expectations thus far.

Kevin Newman, SS, PIT – A fractured orbital bone will sideline Newman for awhile. The top selection for the Pirates in last year's draft, Newman was slashing .346/.414/.444 prior to the injury. The 22-year-old had two home runs and four steals. Newman was showing off his polished college bat, tallying more walks (16) than strikeouts (11). However, the injury will rob him of statistics and progress over the next month. Likewise, while his hitting is his greatest asset, Newman certainly does not have the power, and may not even have the speed, to become a dominant fantasy commodity, even at a shallow position like shortstop.

Javier Guerra, SS, SD – Guerra was one of four prospects sent to the Padres as part of the Craig Kimbrel deal. Though he is known for his glove, Guerra batted .279 with 15 home runs at Low-A as a teenager last season. However, at High-A in 2016, Guerra has had an extremely difficult time as a 20-year-old. He is batting a putrid .186/.246/.297. with 62 strikeouts in 45 games, and has been far too impatient at the dish. The upside remains tantalizing, and Guerra is still very young, but his swing has some serious issues and his strike-zone judgment and recognition could use some work as well.

Gary Sanchez, C, NYY – Catchers are often dinged up, and Sanchez cracked his thumb recently in live game action after taking a foul tip off his hand. He will rest for two weeks and then be re-evaluated. Sanchez has appeared in just three games at the big league level for the Bronx Bombers, mostly due to the presence of Brian McCann, but also so he can play every day in the minors. The Yankees prefer to let Austin Romine play the backup role while Sanchez gets everyday reps at Triple-A. Sanchez remains one of the better catching prospects in baseball, but his future is slightly muddled due to the injury as well as McCann's value at the position.