Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

Jackson Holliday's scintillating season as a teenager has been the talk of the minor league season, but Junior Caminero is right on his heels having just turned 20 in July and already at Double-A.  He began the year at High-A where he tormented opposing pitchers by slashing .356/.409/.685 with 11 home runs and 32 RBI in 36 contests. That resulted in a quick promotion, where he's been scorching over the last month going .357/.415/.679 with eight homers and 23 RBI. The Rays are still vying for the AL East title and are comfortably in the first Wild Card spot, but the potential addition of Caminero to the big-league lineup in September could be intriguing - especially with Wander Franco unlikely to return. Tampa's notoriously conservative with their prospects, though this could be a unique situation to use the youngster in a pennant race.

Here are some other names to watch as the calendar turns to September in terms of big league promotions: Ronny Mauricio (Mets), Jasson Dominguez (Yankees), Jackson Chourio (Brewers), Colton Cowser (Orioles), Jordan Lawlar (Diamondbacks)

Let's look at some other phenoms making headlines in this edition of the Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Cole Young, SS, SEA – Young has a sweet swing from the left side, but brings far more to the table than the ability to spray the ball to all fields. He's produced nearly as many walks as strikeouts in a combined 115 games between Low-A and High-A while racking up 22 stolen bases and 10 home runs. While Young offers a bit more speed than pop, he's decent with power and has a realistic chance of being a 15-homer, 30-steal player. He's arguably the top neophyte in the Seattle system at this time, though is unlikely to see the bigs until 2025.

Jose Corniell, P, TEX – Corniell has been lights out over the past month by posting a 1.13 ERA and 28:2 K:BB across four starts at High-A while opposing batters are hitting .157 against. He uses different variations of the fastball to do most of his damage while the emergence of his slider and other secondary offerings will go a long way towards determining his future role. But for now, the 20-year-old will remain in the starting rotation. Between Low-A and High-A this season, Corniell has posted a 2.98 ERA and 111:26 K:BB from 93.2 innings.

Jack Brannigan, 3B, PIT – A two-way player in college, Brannigan has found his groove as a hitter and has been surging the last month with nine home runs and 23 RBI at High-A.  A third-round selection in last year's draft out of Notre Dame, he began 2023 at Low-A, where he quickly showed his college polish. That resulted in the move up, where Brannigan hasn't missed a beat. He's combined for 18 home runs and 23 RBI between both levels and his time in Double-A next year should be the biggest indicator of his future path.

Mitchell Parker, P, WAS – Parker has been stellar the last few weeks at Double-A with a 3.21 ERA and 40:7 K:BB across28 innings. The 23-year-old southpaw uses a high-riding fastball and above-average curveball to access punchouts, while also working in a changeup and cutter. Parker has walked a few too many batters during his brief time in the minors, though this recent stretch gives hope he consistently keep his totals down.

CHECK STATUS

Caden Dana, P, LAA – Though the meteoric rise of Nolan Schanuel has been getting most of the pub for the Halos in the minors, Dana has emerged as an intriguing prospect since being selected in the 11th round in 2022. The 19-year-old only made three starts to begin the season at Low-A before the Angels decided he needed stiffer competition. That resulted in a quick bump to High-A, where Dana has fanned 71 batters across 53.1 innings. He hasn't pitched since the middle of July, as the Angels manage his workload in his first full season. Dana has still shown enough promise to vault up prospect lists, and may even be the club's current top pitching prospect. He's at least a couple of years away from hitting the majors, but his stock is certainly on the rise.

Rece Hinds, OF, CIN – Hinds has taken a lot of flak from pundits for not living up to his potential, but that narrative might be shifting as he's batting .303 with six homers, 30 RBI and seven steals during the last 30 days and is now up to a slash line of .275/.339/.550 across 99 games at Double-A. He's always flashed the combination of double-digit power/speed, yet his average has finally caught up. Red flags do remain as Hinds has fanned 138 times while only drawing 33 walks. It remains to be seen where he ultimately fits given the recent influx of talent to the Reds' big-league roster, but he deserves the nod for a bounce-back 2023.

Austin Charles, 3B/SS, KC – Charles is a sleeper prospect who many thought would go the college route after going in the 20th round last year, but instead opted for the professional ranks straight out of high school. In 57 games at Low-A this season, he's only hitting .242 along - but with three home runs and 10 steals. Charles is already 6'4", 215 at only 19, so the hope is that his frame results in a refined power stroke as he develops. Though he needs some more polish at the dish, he's an exceptional athlete who oozes potential who's currently flying under the radar but could be a potential top tier prospect as early as next season.

Eddys Leonard, SS, DET – Traded from the Dodgers for cash considerations at the deadline, Leonard has surged since going to the Tigers. Despite previously playing at Double-A, he was immediately sent to Triple-A following the deal. That has paid dividends thus far with Leonard slashing .358/.416/.627 with four home runs and 14 RBI through 18 games. He hits the ball extremely hard, though hasn't also been afraid to take a walk. At just 22, Leonard could be looking like a steal for Detroit.

DOWNGRADE

Cade Povich, P, BAL – Povich returned to Double-A to begin 2023 and has continued to demonstrate his massive strikeout stuff having fanned 118 batters in only 81.1 innings to earn a promotion to Triple-A. However, he gave up a few too many long balls at that level,while also issuing extra free passes en route to a 4.87 ERA. Those issues have gotten Povich in hot water through five starts at Triple-A en route to a 7.29 ERA. The southpaw has allowed five home runs while walking 14 from 21 innings. While the sample size is small, these are the same issues that plagued Povich in the past - though he was just able to minimize the damage against lesser competition. If he wants to enter the Orioles starting rotation in 2024, he has his work cut out for him. A 2023 promotion to the parent club appears out of the question at this time.

Dylan Lesko, P, SD – Perhaps the Padres should pump the brakes a bit on Lesko, who returned from Tommy John surgery earlier this season but was aggressively promoted to High-A after only five appearances at Low-A - and that doesn't even include the four starts to begin the season at the Arizona Complex League where he sported a 10.80 ERA. The 6'2" righty boasts massive upside, but was selected in the 2022 Draft directly out of prep school while recovering from the elbow procedure. Lesko was torched in his first start at High-A where he allowed five hits and five earned runs in only three innings - though he did fan six and walk two. He's only compiled 24 innings so far as a pro, so there shouldn't be any rushes to judgment, yet the Padres may want to exercise more caution with their prized prospect as he continues to regain arm strength and command.