Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

Oneil Cruz is a specimen for the Pirates. While he doesn't have the same body type as Aaron Judge, he stands at 6-7 like the frontrunner for the AL MVP. Cruz's rocket arm was on display from shortstop during his big league debut and he's batting a respectable .250 with seven RBI through seven games. The scariest part may be that he's still scratching the surface of his potential as he offers decent speed, but has yet to translate his raw power into game power. And similar to Judge, Cruz has surprisingly solid bat-to-ball skills for his height and isn't afraid to take a walk.

Cruz is not Judge, nor am I saying he'll eventually turn into Judge. That being said, he currently boasts about as much upside as any prospect in the minors or Majors. Suddenly, the Pirates may actually have a couple of legitimate pieces to build around.

As the summer starts, let's take a look at those up-and-comers who are scorching and those that could use some revitalization.

UPGRADE

Elly De La Cruz, SS, CIN – Cruz has been one of the biggest risers over the last year or so. He's 6-5 and 200 pounds with room to grow and has outstanding raw power and dynamic speed on the basepaths. De La Cruz has racked up 13 home runs and 21 steals in 61 games at High-A. Add in the fact he's never hit lower than .269 at any level since entering the minors and he becomes one of the more exciting phenoms. De La Cruz's lack of plate discipline could come back to bite him at the higher levels, but he's still only 20 and can improve.  He's one of those prospects whose tools are simply too loud to ignore. 

Curtis Mead, 3B, TB – Mead should probably be at Triple-A, but we all know how deliberate Tampa Bay is when it comes to their prospects. At just 21 he's slashing .305/.394/.548 with 10 homers, 36 RBI and six steals at Double-A. Mead has one of the best pure hit tools in the minors, but can access his power when called upon. His future position on the diamond may be in flux, but his bat will play anywhere. Mead should be getting more pub despite the fact his ETA for the bigs is completely up in the air.

Alec Burleson, 1B, STL – Burleson's path to the big leagues is blocked by Paul Goldschmidt, Juan Yepez, Nolan Gorman and Albert Pujols. In another organization, he'd probably already be in the Majors. Burleson is tearing the cover off the ball at Triple-A slashing .343/.389/.578 with 15 home runs and 55 RBI in 63 games. June has been his best month yet as he's batting .373 with nearly as many walks (nine) as strikeouts (11). Burleson has recently been playing the outfield to attempt to increase his positional versatility. Once he gets comfortable in either corner outfield slot, the Cardinals may have no choice but to find a place for his bat in the lineup.

Coleman Crow, P, LAA – Crow doesn't look the part of a rotation anchor based solely upon his size, but everything else about him is intriguing. He's 21, skipped High-A altogether, and posted a 1.59 ERA as the youngest pitcher in the Arizona Fall League. Crow is currently at Double-A, where he's posted a 2.82 ERA and 67:15 K:BB over 67 innings while opposing batters are hitting .211 against. Crow's control has vastly improved from a season ago and he offers three pitches with a dogged determination on the mound.  If he were 6-5, 220lb, he'd be one of the top pitching prospects. As it is, Crow is still being undervalued in prospect circles and should be gaining more notoriety.

CHECK STATUS

Tanner Bibee, P, CLE – Bibee has found immediate success at High-A and always seems to be around the plate. The Cal State Fullerton product knows how to pitch, as evidenced by his 79:12 K:BB in only 54 innings. Bibee's fastball has gained a few ticks on the radar gun since entering the minors, yet he's still extremely effective in locating the pitch. The righty boasts a four-pitch arsenal at his disposal, though scouts are not overly impressed with his raw stuff. Bibee has allowed eight home runs in 11 starts, which is also a possible red flag. How he performs at Double-A will go a long way towards determining whether he can become a rotation fixture or simply an innings eater.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 3B, MIN – The Minnesota infield has been wracked by injuries this season, though Encarnacion-Stroud appears to be far from his MLB debut despite currently playing at Double-A. It took fellow third baseman Jose Miranda a long time to get to the big leagues, so the likelihood of Encarnacion-Stroud getting there before 2023 seems slim. Still, the polished product out of Oklahoma State is already making his presence felt by slashing .291/.357/.567 with 16 homers and 58 RBI in his first full season with the organization. Plate discipline remains Encarnacion-Stroud's likely roadblock to the Majors, though his average remains more than positive and his walk rate has increased from the small sample size in 2021.

JJ Bleday, OF, MIA – Bleday appears to have gone to the Joey Gallo school of hitting. He ranks third in the International League in home runs, third in walks and sixth in strikeouts. Bleday's batting average is certainly a downer hitting just .215 on the season. However, his power stroke has finally come around and he's already set a career high in homers for a single season while his OBP is .362. The production from the current Marlins outfield has been dreadful, but there has to be a real concern Bleday will be unable to hit .200 with the club. It'll be interesting to see how the Marlins handle him, particularly as they fall farther out of contention.

Casey Schmitt, 3B, SF – A second-round pick in 2020, Schmitt is having a better year than he did his injury-plagued debut in 2021. Currently at High-A, he's batting .299/.371/.516 with 12 home runs and 39 RBI across 63 games. Schmitt is considered a defensive stalwart and was also the closer during his time at San Diego State. Now a full-time third baseman, he's proven his capabilities with the bat and his significant power. Schmitt is already 23, so perhaps he should be dominating the lower levels. But the fact that he was only a part-time hitter until last year does give him more of the benefit of the doubt.

DOWNGRADE

Ryan Cusick, P, OAK – Cusick has been sidelined since the beginning of June with an oblique strain. One of several prospects acquired from the Braves in the Matt Olson trade, he was struggling at Double-A even prior to the injury with a bloated 8.13 ERA in 27.2 innings and opposing hitters registering a .387 BAA while walking 16 batters. The sample size is extremely small and Cusick has barely pitched in the minors since being selected in the first round of last year's Draft. Nevertheless, his "new prospect" luster appears to have worn off.

Andry Lara, P, WAS – Lara signed with the Nationals amid plenty of hype in 2019. And while he's still only 19 years, it's clear his first year of full-season ball hasn't exactly gone swimmingly with a 6.04 ERA and 56:27 K:BB over 50.2 innings. Lara's off-speed pitches remain works in progress and his overall control has been less than stellar, leading to him falling in most prospect rankings. His upside remains, but for now he's nothing more than a project.