Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

Some interesting rule changes have been proposed should the 2020 season take place.  A couple of intriguing proposals that could impact prospects are the universal DH, as well as expanded rosters.  Certainly, if more players are allowed on a roster, that would help those players at the upper levels of the minors, and/or hotshot phenoms that may not have sniffed the big leagues under normal circumstances.  In addition, if a universal designated hitter is instituted, that could also aid hitters in the National League that normally would have had less or possibly no playing time.  Something to keep an eye on as the 2020 season begins to take shape.  It will certainly be one of the more unique situations in fantasy baseball history if the 2020 campaign is played, given the bevy of changes likely to be made to our National Pastime.

Let's profile some more prospects in this week's edition of the Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Terrin Vavra, SS, COL – Terrin is the youngest of three Vavra brothers currently in the minors, and the 22-year-old looks to be the best of the trio.  A third round pick in 2018, Vavra has an extremely advanced approach at the dish.  He has hit over .300 at both stops since entering the minors.  In 102 games at Low-A in 2019, Vavra had the same number of walks as strikeouts (62).  Perhaps this is unsurprising, giving his polished collegiate background out of the University of Minnesota, but Vavra also showed decent power and speed.  He collected double-digits in both home runs (10) and steals (18).  Vavra's next stop at High-A in the hitter-friendly confines of the California League should result in another batch of excellent statistics, so Double-A should be a better indicator of his future path.  While he's unlikely to play shortstop for the Rockies with Trevor Story entrenched there, Vavra has done nothing but help his stock since entering the minors, and it would appear most outlets are not as bullish on him as they should be.

JJ Bleday, OF, MIA – Bleday had a huge junior campaign at Vanderbilt, and dazzled in the Cape Cod League, which shot him up the draft boards and led to his high selection in last year's draft.  He was only mediocre in 38 games at High-A following being drafted, but let's get a few things straightened out.  The sample size is rather small, for one.  Next, the assignment was extremely aggressive, even for a perceived polished collegiate bat.  He also didn't turn 22 until after the season was completed.  As a result, Bleday remains a high-upside power bat, and he might even be a bit undervalued due to the focus on his statistics at High-A from last season.

Seth Corry, P, SF – On the plus side, Corry has been compared to Matt Moore, the southpaw who once led the minors in strikeouts in a season.  On the downside, Corry has been compared to Matt Moore, the same lefthander who essentially flamed out in the majors.  Corry was virtually untouchable in his first taste of full-season ball as a 20-year-old at Low-A in 2019.  He fanned an astounding 172 batters in 122.2 innings.  That was good enough for fourth in all of minor league baseball last season.  Corry's ERA was a minuscule 1.76, as he held the opposition to a .171 BAA.  His curveball is his wipeout pitch.  He also allowed just 4 home runs in 27 outings, as he was largely able to keep the ball in the ballpark when not tallying a strikeout.  Corry did walk 58 batters, and command will be the one knock that could hold him back.  Still, based upon the production and repertoire, perhaps he is another prospect that evaluators are too low on.  His performance in 2020 against more age-appropriate competition should give a better insight into his future path.

Ricky Vanasco, P, TEX – Vanasco is a chic candidate for a big rise in the prospect rankings in 2020.  A 2017 draft pick in the 15th round in 2017, Vanasco battled elbow inflammation and hadn't pitched more than 35 innings in the minors heading into the 2019 campaign.  He then proceeded to dominate in nine starts in the Short-Season Northwest league, fanning 59 batters in 39 innings, notching a 1.85 ERA while holding the opposition to a paltry .173 BAA.  His fastball now hits the upper-90's, and his curveball is an above-average offering.  Vanasco then tasted success at Low-A, albeit in just a few starts.  He still could end up in the bullpen; that depends on the development of his changeup.  That being said, he mowed down the competition in 2019, and Vanasco could be aggressively pushed as a 21-year-old who is now healthy in 2020.  Starting him at High-A is not outside of the question if and when the season resumes.

CHECK STATUS

Derek Hill, OF, DET – Hill found his power stroke at Double-A last season, breaking double-digits in home runs for the first time in a season in his minor league career.  That output makes Hill a bit more intriguing as a prospect, as he has also swiped at least 20 bases in each of the last three years.  He's not going to hit for average, and he is already 24.  Still, he should start at Triple-A this season, the Tigers have limited outfield depth ahead of him, and he was a first round draft pick way back in 2014.  As such, if the added pop is real, Hill could get a look due to the speed/power combination.

Ethan Hankins, P, CLE – Hankins has huge, huge upside for the Tribe.  A compensatory pick in the 2018 draft, Hankins walked a few too many batters between the Short-Season New York-Penn League and Low-A in 2019.  He was also slightly more hittable at Low-A, resulting in an ERA of 4.64, albeit over just five starts.  Still, the strikeout stuff is evident, anchored by his superb fastball.  Hankins will need to work on his other three pitches to continue his ascension, but if everything comes together, combined with his 6-foot-6, 200+-lb. frame, Hankins could be a staple in the starting rotation for years to come.  The risk is that he hurt his shoulder in 2018, and he still has a penchant for some wildness.  Hankins will turn 20 years of age later this month.  He could have significant movement in the prospect rankings this season, up or down.

Antoine Kelly, P, MIL – Kelly's secondary pitches remain fringy, but his mid-90's fastball from the left side roasted the competition in the Arizona Rookie league following his selection in the second round of the 2019 draft.  The JUCO product possesses great size and athleticism, and his slider can be devastating at times to opposing hitters.  Kelly has plenty of work to do on the slider as well as a changeup in order to assert himself at the higher levels, but the Brewers could have found somewhat of a hidden gem in Kelly, excellent news for an organization starving for some high upside phenoms.

Chris Rodriguez, P, LAA – Investing in Rodriguez involves plenty of risk, as he has pitched just 9.1 innings since the end of the 2017 campaign.  He has battled a nagging back, which sidelined him for all of 2018 and 2019, and he even had back surgery last year to attempt to fix the issues.  The back can be fickle (just ask Don Mattingly) so there are no guarantees Rodriguez will be able to stay healthy.  That being said, Rodriguez has an electric arm, is still just 21, and the Halos have limited prospects on the pitching side.  Rodriguez has the chance for some serious helium, as long as he can stay on the mound.

DOWNGRADE

Jay Groome, P, BOS – It feels like we've been talking about Groome forever, yet he is still just 21.  The question of whether he will ever reach his potential is a legitimate one, though.  Groome has battled injuries, inconsistency on the mound as well as drama off the mound concerning his father.  It would probably surprise most people to know that despite being drafted in 2016, Groome has pitched just 66 innings in the minors.  He was expected to be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery entering the 2020 campaign, but we all know what has happened with COVID-19.  Groome still has elite size, and was sitting at 93-94 mph with his fastball at the end of last season (he pitched in three games at the end of the 2019 campaign).  In fairness to him, we haven't even seen what he's capable of in a full, uninterrupted season.  That said, he comes with plenty of risk because of that fact as well, and now at close to age 22, has never pitched above Low-A.

Brusdar Graterol, P, LAD – Graterol's offseason was turbulent.  First it seemed as though he was headed to the Red Sox as part of the Mookie Betts deal, then he ended up being shipped to the Dodgers as part of a trade for Kenta Maeda.  The Red Sox balked at the inclusion of Graterol in the Betts deal supposedly due to medical concerns.  Meanwhile, while the Dodgers were comfortable enough to take him back in a subsequent trade, Graterol's time in the spotlight led most scouts and pundits to confirm his best role would be in the bullpen due to his weight and lack of a third pitch.  His two-pitch arsenal will serve nicely in the bullpen, and he could be a future closer, but being shifted out of the starting rotation certainly dampens his fantasy value.  In sum, the narrative on Graterol changed from being a possible frontline rotation anchor to an injury-prone reliever in a very short amount of time, whether fairly or unfairly.

Lolo Sanchez, OF, PIT – 2019 was a tale of two halves for Sanchez, who shined at Low-A at the start of the season.  He hit .301/.377/.451 with four home runs, 26 RBI and 20 steals in 61 games.  That resulted in a promotion to High-A, where Sanchez struggled mightily.  He slashed just .196/.300/.270 with one home run in 52 games.  Sanchez did swipe 13 bags, and it is apparent that stolen bases will be his best fantasy asset.  He does have excellent contact skills and a handle of the strike zone as well.  However, it is doubtful that much power will ever be among his tools.  The other issue is that the Pirates have at least two other prospects with extremely similar skill sets who profile as centerfielders directly ahead of him.  That would be Jared Oliva, who is on the verge of the big leagues, and Travis Swaggerty, who should start at Double-A this season.  As such, Sanchez may end up being blocked even if he does reach the big leagues.

Albert Abreu, P, NYY – Abreu and Domingo Acevedo were once seen as among the more promising arms in the Yankees system, but have been passed over by the likes of Deivi Garcia, Clarke Schmidt, Luis Medina, Luis Gil and others.  Abreu has been unable to stay healthy during his professional career, never pitching more than 102 innings in any one year.  Abreu was mediocre in 2019 at Double-A Trenton, posting a 4.28 ERA and 91:53 K:BB in 96.2 innings.  His strikeouts dipped, while his walks went up.  Unsurprisingly, he spent time on the Disabled List (shoulder) as well.  Abreu has three pitches and electric stuff, but must improve his command.  Now 24, it could be now or never for Abreu.