Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

While the MLB Draft is on every prospect guru's mind, this week's article will focus on those phenoms already playing games in their respective organizations.  Jose Suarez made his MLB debut for the Los Angeles Angels.  And while he was optioned to Triple-A following his start, Suarez got the win and definitely will be back for the future when needed.  Ryan Mountcastle bashed three home runs for Baltimore's Triple-A affiliate Sunday and it seems only to be a matter of when, not if, he will get the call this summer.  Jesus Luzardo of the Oakland A's looks on track to return to the mound at Triple-A sometime this month, while Jorge Mateo should soon be called up to the big club given his rousing return to prominence.  And Zac Gallen looks to be one injury away from Miami, as he has little left to prove at Triple-A.

Who else is on the rise, and whose stock is taking a nosedive?  Let's find out in this week's Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Cody Bolton, P, PIT – With Mitch Keller getting blown up in his first big-league start and seeing his star fade a bit over the last couple of seasons, an argument can be made that Bolton is now the most promising young arm in the Pirates system.  He won't turn 21 until later this month, but he has found little resistance thus far at any level of the minors.  A sixth round pick in 2017, Bolton has combined strikeout stuff with exceptional control, and is getting more swings and misses than ever.  He has posted a 1.81 ERA and 62:12 K:BB in 54.2 innings at High-A Bradenton, with opposing batters hitting a paltry .184 against him.  Bolton is consistently working his fastball down in the zone, yielding more ground balls.  His slider is an above-average pitch, but the development of his changeup will go a long way towards determining his future path.  He missed time last season with a forearm strain, but he could shoot up the prospect rankings if those health issues are a thing of the past.

Griffin Conine, OF, TOR – The Blue Jays love their legacies.  The progeny of Vladimir Guerrero, Dante Bichette and Craig Biggio have already made waves in the organization, and Conine is on deck.  A second round pick in last year's draft, Conine was suspended for the first 50 games this season after testing positive for a banned stimulant.  He recently returned from suspension with a bang, going 8-for13 with two home runs and six RBI in his first three games back at Low-A Lansing.  The Blue Jays seem to have plenty of infield talent and some blossoming hurlers, but the outfield is one area where they have struggled to gain quality production.  Though Conine is likely still a couple years away from the big leagues, he could move quicker than expected given the dearth of outfield talent throughout the organization.

Drew Rom, P, BAL – The Orioles gave Rom a rather aggressive start in full-season ball to begin the 2019 campaign, but their confidence appears to have been warranted.  The 19-year-old southpaw has been mowing down the competition, notching a 1.49 ERA and 55:12 K:BB in 42.1 innings.  With DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez leading the pack, the Orioles suddenly boast some quality hurlers.  Michael Baumann has fanned 69 batters in just 43.2 innings at High-A this season, while Blaine Knight and Dean Kremer have also shown some promise.  It may take a few years for these young Orioles to make their mark, but Baltimore seems to be restocking with some success.

Isan Diaz, 2B, MIA – The toolsy Diaz has struggled in recent years to keep his batting average up and limit strikeouts, but he's always had some pop along with the ability to steal a bag or two.  He's been on a hot streak of late, which has pushed his slash line up to a more than respectable .280/.368/.505.  Through 55 games, Diaz has recorded 11 home runs and 33 RBI for Triple-A New Orleans.  And over his last 10, Diaz is hitting a robust .395 with four home runs and seven RBI.  Though he hasn't been stealing many bases this season and his strikeouts remain a tad high, Diaz is also not afraid to walk and work the count.  Though the Marlins own a few middle infielders ahead of him on the depth chart, the 23-year old Diaz would appear to have the most upside.  If he continues to shine, there could be a spot for him in the big leagues sometime this summer.

CHECK STATUS

Kyle Muller, P, ATL – The Braves have so many above-average arms in their system, it's easy for guys like Muller to get overlooked.  A second round pick in 2016, Muller has shown even better strikeout stuff than in previous seasons thus far in 2019 with 67 in 59.1 innings - including three-straight starts with at least eight Ks.  Opposing batters are hitting a putrid .169 against the 21-year-old southpaw, who has a prototypical size for a workhorse starter at 6-foot-6, 225.  The one red flag remains his control, which can be suspect at times.  He's walked 35 batters in those 59.1 innings while managing to limit the damage so far this year, but those additional base runners could come back to haunt him as he moves to Triple-A and beyond.  Even so, Muller has noticeably improved his stock, even in an organization rife with arm talent.

Brice Turang, SS, MIL – Despite being a first round pick in last year's draft, Turang does not receive much publicity.  That may begin to change, as the teenager is showing a handle of the bat and strike zone well beyond his years.  Turang is hitting .318 with a .414 OBP through 52 games at Low-A and has accumulated nearly as many walks (33) as strikeouts (37) while swiping 13 bags.  The only thing missing from his toolbox is power, and some could develop as he matures and fills out.  Turang still has 13 extra-base hits, including one home run, while driving in 25 runs.  Regardless, the Brewers could not have hoped for a better adjustment to full-season ball for the 19-year old, who could rank as the Brewers' top prospect once Keston Hiura exhausts his eligibility.

Ljay Newsome, P, SEA – Logan Gilbert has the first round status and pedigree, but his rotation mate Newsome has been out of this world at High-A in 2019 with an 89:7 K:BB rate in 66 innings.  Yes, you read that correctly.  Newsome always had standout control, but his strikeout rate has jumped from a season ago.  Double-A will be the big test for the 22-year old, as he is repeating this level to begin 2019.  However, the ability to miss bats and/or induce weak contact cannot be overstated, particularly for someone who lives in the strike zone.  Newsome focused on getting stronger this offseason and also attended Seattle's "Gas Camp", designed for pitchers who need to add some velocity.  He's added a few ticks to his fastball, which now sits in the low-90's, and the results have been lethal.  Newsome still may not have frontline rotation anchor potential, but he's certainly moved up the rankings.

Tanner Houck, P, BOS – It's been a mixed bag for Houck since being drafted in the first round in 2017.  On the plus side, he's averaged about a strikeout per inning in 191.2 innings pitched in the minors.  He also generally gets more ground balls than flyouts, and held his own following an aggressive assignment to High-A to begin the 2018 campaign.  On the downside, Houck walks entirely too many batters; he issued 60 free passes in 119 innings last year, and has allowed 19 walks in 50.1 innings at Double-A.  He's struggled to find the right mix of pitches, despite allegedly being a polished collegiate product out of Mizzou.  However, he's fanned seven batters in three of the last four games, and also recorded a nine-strikeout performance at the end of April.  The key for Houck has to be consistency.  In the pitching-starved Red Sox system, he will certainly get plenty of rope.  Even with mediocre numbers, he is still arguably the top arm in the lower levels of the organization.

DOWNGRADE

Anderson Tejeda, SS, TEX – A left shoulder injury will sideline Tejeda for at least the next couple of weeks.  He's been ranked as one of the better hitting prospects for the Rangers, but had been struggling even prior to the injury by slashing just .234/.315/.386 in 43 games at High-A Down East, despite returning to the same level as 2018.  Plate discipline remains a concern, as he fanned 58 times over those 43 contests.  In fact, Tejeda has averaged more than one strikeout per game throughout his brief professional career.  On the bright side, he was on pace to shatter his career high of 11 stolen bases before getting hurt, with nine thefts on the year.  However, he has just four home runs after bashing 19 just a season ago.  Tejeda has not hit for much average over the past two-plus seasons, so he needs to have that power/speed combination in order to still be considered an elite prospect.  The 21-year-old switch-hitter has been lacklustre at best, and the injury won't help his cause.

Daniel Lynch, P, KC – It's been a standout year for minor league hurlers in the Kansas City organization, given the terrific starts by the likes of Jackson Kowar, Kris Bubic and Brady Singer.  Lynch could be the best of the bunch, but the 6-foot-6 southpaw left his most recent start with an injury to his throwing arm.  Few details are known at this time, but expect the Royals to be extremely cautious with Lynch regardless of the severity of the ailment.  He had compiled a 3.09 ERA and 52:15 K:BB in 55.1 innings at High-A Wilmington.

Brandon Marsh, OF, LAA – A leg injury couldn't have come at a worse time for Marsh, who had been on a tear prior to getting hurt.  The 21-year-old was hitting an even .400 over his last 10 games, notching just as many walks as strikeouts (seven).  He recorded nine steals in 45 games at Double-A Mobile, and had pushed his slash line up to .292/.394/.391.  While the severity of the injury is unknown, Marsh has been placed on the Injured List, which will certainly stunt his progress.  It is also worth mentioning Marsh's power numbers have not developed as expected despite his bigger frame (6-foot-4, 215 lbs).  While the On-Base Percentage is exceptional this season, Marsh may end up being a better actual player than fantasy commodity given the lack of home runs along with the likelihood of losing speed as he continues to fill out.

Alex Kirilloff, OF, MIN – Kirilloff enjoyed a breakout 2018 season after losing all of 2017 following Tommy John surgery.  The recovery for an everyday player as opposed to a pitcher is shorter, and Kirilloff returned with a vengeance by hitting .348 with 20 home runs and 101 RBI between Low-A and High-A.  Unfortunately, the injury bug has returned for the 21-year old, who is already back on the Injured List for the second time in 2019.  He began this campaign on the shelf due to a wrist injury, then played in 29 games at Double-A and hit .268 with two home runs and three steals.  However, an undisclosed injury has sent him back to the IL and will certainly quiet notions of a callup this year, and could push back his ETA for 2020 as well depending on the severity of his latest setback.