Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants & More MLB Bets & Expert Picks for Tuesday, May 14

Written by

Michael Rathburn

Published on May 14, 2024

MLB Bets and Expert Picks for
Tuesday, May 14

YTD 53-65-1

Prior article 2-4 ( -1.15 units)

POWER OUTAGE

Scoring and home runs continue to be down and UNDERS are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on OVERS on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value. You can add unearned runs, hits allowed and strikeouts to the pitcher props I am focused on. Until we see a major change in offense with the weather heating up or major line/odds adjustments, I would continue to hammer pitcher props.

WEATHER IMPACT

Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark.

BULLPEN USAGE

You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5 inning play.

WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING

Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an UNDER.

MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)

1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)

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Washington Nationals at Chicago White Sox

This is for the second game of the doubleheader with Mitchell Parker against Erick Fedde. Both starting pitchers have had unexpected success early on as Parker is 2-1 with a 2.67 ERA and Fedde is 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA.

The lineups will not be at full strength and each teams' bullpen is suspect, plus we do not know what the bullpen usage will be in the first game. So the best way to attack this game is to only look at the F5 and the starting pitchers. Fedde has allowed two runs or less in six out of eight starts, while Parker has allowed two runs or less in four out of five starts.

MLB Picks for Nationals at White Sox

Nationals/White Sox UNDER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM -130)

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants

We get the Dodgers at a bit of a discount here on the road with Gavin Stone on the mound against Keaton Winn. Stone has gone OVER his recorded outs and UNDER his earned runs three straight starts. His numbers over the last five starts are 30 innings, 2.10 ERA, 1.03 WHIP are strong, but the strikeout numbers are low.

The ballpark will help Stone and the Giants' offense has been weak as they have gone UNDER in 13 out of their last 20 at home. The Dodgers are ranked first against right-handed pitching with a 126 wRC+. Winn has gotten roughed up in his last two starts with 12 earned runs in 4.1 innings.

The Dodgers should get to Winn early and often.

MLB Picks for Dodgers at Giants

Dodgers -1.5 for 1 unit (BetRivers -104)

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Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves

Most of the time, when there are two strong starting pitchers I will lean toward the UNDER F5, but in this case with a total of 8.0, I will look at the full game total and go under. Jameson Taillon has allowed a total of just three earned runs in four starts, while Chris Sale is allowing two runs per start this season.

The Braves lineup is strong in names, but their numbers speak otherwise. They have gone UNDER in 18 out of their last 20 games. On numbers alone, I have this game projected more in the 7-7.5 run total range.

MLB Picks for Cubs at Braves

Cubs/Braves UNDER 8.0 runs for 2 units (DraftKings +100)

Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres

Whenever I see the Rockies as significant road underdogs, I will look at going against them. They are 4-26 overall in their last 30 road games with a 3.4-6.0 average score (-2.6 run differential).

Dylan Cease has been one of the best pitches in baseball and can get even better as his strand rate is just 65 percent. All of his numbers are in the top 5-10 percentile of starting pitchers with strikeout rate, walk rate, batting average allowed, ERA, WHIP, FIP, etc.

This is the first game where I have laid -2.5 runs this season.

MLB Picks for Rockies at Padres