Farm Futures: Opening Day Prospect Mailbag!

The Top 400 Prospect Rankings, Team Top 20s and the Dynasty Rankings are all fully updated!

I answered dozens of your questions on this week's Prospect Podcast (below), and the written version of the mailbag follows.

Nevsim81: Can you talk a little bit about the rise of Grant Taylor (CHW) as a prospect, from being drafted to the current hype train? He seems to have really jumped up out of nowhere in a very limited sample size. Is this possibly the next Mason Miller, (quick riser/injury risk with huge stuff) or would that be a lazy comparison of his ceiling?

I actually have some comps for Taylor, but hadn't considered Miller, just because Miller came with even more durability/health/bullpen risks at the same stage, but I think it's an interesting one. My comps for Taylor are Walker Buehler and Jesus Luzardo, not necessarily as pure pitcher comps, but fantasy pitching prospect comps. Buehler and Luzardo were easily acquirable in dynasty leagues when they were freshly back from Tommy John surgery before the 2017 season, but then they quickly became elite pitching prospects. This would be that year for Taylor, who has a chance for three plus pitches and above-average command. We could see Taylor finish this season as a top three pitching prospect poised to spend the 2026 season in the big-league rotation.

Coco: What caused the big jump for Angel Genao (CLE)?

He added significant lower-body muscle in the offseason and actually grew taller (probably not more than a half inch or an inch), which aligns with what I saw on tape this spring. Genao does everything well, it was just a question of how much of an impact he'd make, and now I'm more confident in him developing 20-homer power in the majors.

Patrick Gilbert: There's a lot of buzz around Alan Roden (TOR) at Jays camp. I thought he may inch closer to the top 50 and would love your thoughts...

Yeah, I regret not pushing Roden 10-15 spots higher. I wasn't sure he'd make the team, but now that he has, he's got appeal in 15-team mixed leagues and could eventually be a guy who's rostered in most formats. He'll probably get platooned like most lefty-hitting rookies, but he could also spend the majority of the year as the leadoff hitter. Roden's power output will be the thing to watch. He'll chip in a handful of steals and be a great AVG/OBP guy long term, but I could see him being a 15-homer guy or potentially a 20-25-homer guy on the high end.

Rossredcay: I've never been a huge Chase Petty (CIN) fan but I feel like I've gone from the low man to the high man on him. Curious what's holding you back from moving him up as I know you love proximity arms. Is it all park or some skill concerns?

Yeah, I hear you on Petty — he's a tough guy to rank. I don't love the park, but the main reservation I have is that the strikeouts have just never really matched the stuff, or at least the theory of the stuff. He has struck out less than a batter per inning at every stop since he was at High-A in 2023, and I keep waiting for him to master that aspect of his minor-league game, but it hasn't happened. He could break out at any point and is only entering his age-22 season, so it's certainly possible he's a double up arrow guy on the update before Memorial Day weekend.

GordyMeyers: Can you describe what you see in Emil Morales (LAD) that worries you? Why is he ranked well over 100 when other rankers are much more excited about him?

Historically, Morales being ranked 150 the spring after his Dominican Summer League debut would be seen as a big vote of confidence. There are typically only one or two DSL guys who get ranked anywhere near the top 100 — that's not counting the Leo De Vries (SD) types who skip the DSL. Right now, he's behind Jesus Made (MIL) and Yairo Padilla (STL) among players from the 2024 J-15 class who have only played in the DSL — he's also behind Yolfran Castillo (TEX) who split the year between the DSL and Arizona Complex League . There's definitely an argument for having Morales over Padilla and/or Castillo and up closer to the top 100, but the main reason I'm not pushing him up there is his huge frame. He's going to outgrow shortstop and possibly even third base, and with teenagers that size, I'm more skeptical of their hit tools until they get into full-season ball. Morales also won't be much of a runner compared to his aforementioned classmates. I'm very comfortable with where I have him, and I think he's a great power-hitting prospect.

Camposite: Are you starting to lose some hope that Jett Williams (NYM) will return to his pre-injury form?

I'd phrase it differently, I'm just hopeful that he can have a healthy season. He wasn't healthy last year and couldn't even stay healthy for the full Arizona Fall League, so I'm guessing the injuries/rustiness affected his performance to some degree. Williams is so patient/passive at the plate, that he swings infrequently compared to his peers and therefore it's tough for him to show us much in these short samples. This was the fourth straight update to the rankings where Williams saw a slight drop. The best thing for him would be to just get to play for five straight months in the upper levels of the minors.

Muskellunge: Spencer Nivens (KC) is not listed in the BA top 30 for the Royals, can you give me a scouting report?

Great question, and I'm not surprised BA didn't have Nivens ranked based on the tale of his season and his defensive limitations. I'm essentially ranking him based on his final 52 games at High-A last year, when he slashed .327/.396/.678 with 18 home runs, a 10.4 BB% and a 23.9 K%. Nivens is already 23 and will be making his Double-A debut this year. He is a left fielder, so there's not much margin for error for him offensively, but there's a chance he's a late-blooming power hitter in the Kerry Carpenter mold.

On a related note, I've never been a Gavin Cross (KC) guy, but I added him to the top 200 on this update as I'm starting to think he could play enough in 2026 to go 20/20 or 15/25 as the Royals' right fielder. His defense and draft pedigree as a former first-round pick should buy him opportunities, even if he isn't great right away offensively. I think he'll debut this summer, but 2026 will be the year to grab him for cheap.

Phrappie: Who has the better year of high school teammates Jacob Wilson and Max Muncy for the Athletics?

Muncy, although of the two, he'd be the one who could get optioned with a slow start. I know Wilson had a good spring, but Muncy has significantly more power potential in 2025 and he also has more upside as a base stealer, although that's damning with faint praise. 

Daleteekz: Do we see Agustin Ramirez (MIA) in the majors by May? Is this just a case of not starting his service clock too soon? When he gets the call-up, does he move into the top 5-10 catchers for rest-of-season projections?

This is textbook service-time manipulation. Ramirez is very unlikely to contend for NL Rookie of the Year even if he were up all season, so the main incentive the team is considering is getting a seventh year of team control by sending him to the minors until mid-April. I wouldn't say top 5-10 catcher right away, but he has the upside to be a top 10 catcher once he's up and he's someone who should be rostered in every two-catcher league and deep one-catcher leagues.

Matthew King: Which prospects outside your current top 100 have the best chance of being top 10 by season's end?

Obviously a big qualifier for a question like this is that the players I like the most are in the top 100 already, but for your question: Slade Caldwell (ARI), Yairo Padilla (STL), Kellon Lindsey (LAD), Josuar De Jesus Gonzalez (SF), Yolfran Castillo (TEX), Emil Morales (LAD), Griffin Burkholder (PHI), Rainiel Rodriguez (STL), Yorger Bautista (SEA)

Cpar: Thoughts on Sal Frelick for this year? Brewers O looking good this spring. I'm a big fan of Joey Ortiz and also have some Rhys Hoskins as my second 1B....

Frelick is having a nice spring, but like with Jacob Wilson (ATH) — both Frelick and Wilson had Statcast hard-hit rates below 20 percent last year — his spring numbers greatly oversell his realistic power output over a full season. The biggest question with Frelick is whether he'll sit against lefties and whether he'll run more. I think he could play a little against southpaws early this season, but that playing time should dry up once Blake Perkins (shin) returns in a month. I do think Frelick could eclipse the 18 steals he managed last year in 145 games, so he could give you a decent average, 5-10 homers and 20-30 steals, although he'll likely be a big negative in RBI in addition to home runs.

John Burley: Why is Zyhir Hope (LAD) a faller? Have you changed your evaluation of him or is he more just getting passed by guys performing well in spring with closer proximity?

I had a couple questions about Hope, but this one nailed the reasoning. Nothing has changed about Hope beyond the fact he didn't do anything to improve his stock this spring. He just got passed by a handful of guys who did improve their stock.

Dave Slick: Everybody loves Kristian Campbell (BOS), but doesn't his spring bother you?

I did lower Campbell a few spots, and I was tempted to lower him a few more spots. There's a tier from Jasson Dominguez at No. 4 to Samuel Basallo at No. 19, and I view Campbell as being in that tier. He likely has the most trade value of anyone in that tier in some leagues, for what it's worth. In addition to a bad spring at the plate, Campbell's second base defense is worse than I realized and I'm mildly concerned that his defense could affect his offense. 

Jordan Grieve: Love the Zach Fruit (BAL) debut slot and the spring performance. Any chance you think he debuts this year? Do you know anything about his pitch mix other than the high heat?

I think we could see Fruit up this summer working out of the bullpen and then they could stretch him back out in 2026 or just leave him in the bullpen if it's a huge success. In the one spring game where there was Statcast, Fruit threw a 91-mph cutter (touches 94 mph) 26 percent of the time and an 82-mph sweeper 18 percent of the time in addition to his 98-mph four-seamer (touches 100-mph) and his 96-mph sinker. The sweeper and cutter each notched whiffs on 67 percent of swings in that outing.

Matthew King: What do you see as the stat line in the peak seasons of Roman Anthony (BOS)? Junior Caminero too even though he is graduated. These are the two most commonly requested players off my roster in trade...

Peak Roman Anthony could be a corner outfielder who produces similarly to Bryce Harper, although I'd expect Anthony to steal closer to 20 bases early on while it could be a few years before he's hitting 30 homers annually. 

Caminero should hit around 35 homers annually during his prime while batting around .270 with an OBP around .350 and zero speed on the bases.

Danny J: Brady House (WSH) got double up arrows. What are you seeing?

A 4:4 K:BB in 26 plate appearances this spring is pretty encouraging for House. All he needs to do is control the zone a bit and he could be able to be a 25-homer third baseman, but last year he was completely lost from a swing decision standpoint. Jose Tena also hasn't ascended to the top of the depth chart like I expected, so House could be up in the first half if he's raking.

Mark Vogel: You've commented that this class doesn't have the top tier prospects other classes have had, do you still feel the same? 

The biggest thing that was clear to me on this update was that I was too low on the 2024 draft class. Cam Smith (HOU), Jac Caglianone (KC), Nick Kurtz (ATH) and Konnor Griffin (PIT) all showed about as well as they possibly could have this spring, and just those performances led to eight-plus spot jumps for all four. We'd had such a bad run of college hitters and especially first basemen underperforming in pro ball, and that's ultimately decided at the big-league level, so we're not out of the woods yet, but it seems like this class could be a trend reversal rather than a continuation of a trend.

Billyheyyy: Do you like Cam Smith (HOU) over Kristian Campbell (BOS) for fantasy this season?

I like them about the same for 2025, so positional need would factor in. Cam Smith's (HOU) rise in the rankings was more about the next 3-5 years than the short term — I haven't drafted him in any redraft leagues yet (I have one share of Campbell from over the winter) and wouldn't be surprised if he is just treading water over the first few months against big-league pitching. 

Yoel: How do you compare Cam Smith (HOU) to Jasson Dominguez (NYY)? How high is the ceiling?

They're very different fantasy players, as Dominguez is a good bet to go 20/20 this year as long as his glove doesn't cost him playing time. Cam Smith won't go 20/20 this year or any year, in all likelihood, but he could be a .280 hitter who hits 30 homers with a bunch of R+RBI during his peak seasons. I don't think Dominguez will ever be a .280 hitter.

Kevin Farrow: What put Jac Caglianone (KC) slightly in front of Nick Kurtz (ATH)?

Tom Pallister: Ultra draft, I have two 1B options. I know you think highly of Nick Kurtz (ATH) and it seems you have Jac Caglianone (KC) right there with him now. Lean one way or the other?

This is a very challenging one. I'd be tempted to advise a stranger to take Kurtz because of how safe his skill set is and how quickly he'll be up in the big leagues (health permitting), but if I were personally on the clock, I'd chase Caglianone's 50-homer upside, accepting that his floor is lower. Kurtz clearly has a better track record as a pure hitter, but Caglianone has a much better and more impressive physique and doesn't come with any durability concerns, whereas Kurtz has missed time with small stuff throughout his career. Caglianone also may be improving as a hitter before our eyes, as he was great to close the Arizona Fall League and picked right back up there in Cactus League play. So I lean very, very slightly toward Caglianone.

Keith: I've got an AL-only minor-league draft next week and have the first pick. If Kristian Campbell (BOS) makes the Opening Day roster, I can't take him. Is there an argument for Travis Bazzana (CLE) for you or is it clearly Nick Kurtz (ATH)?

For me, it's clearly Cam Smith (HOU) and then if you passed on him, it would be between Nick Kurtz (ATH) and Jac Caglianone (KC). This is a good time to let everyone know, if you haven't already noticed, there's a new feature on the top 400 where you can isolate just FYPD players or exclude FYPD players from the rankings, so you can see quickly how my FYPD ranks have shifted without leaving the top 400 page.

Nevsim81: Coby Mayo (BAL), from inside the top 10 to outside the top 20 currently. Is it just fatigue of ranking him or has something given you reason to be a bit less optimistic about his realistic ceiling?

I'm not less optimistic about his realistic ceiling, but I'm less optimistic about his realistic floor. Mayo didn't give the Orioles any reason to keep him around deep into spring training, which has to be viewed as at least a slight disappointment for a player we're always saying is blocked. I expect him to mash again at Triple-A, but there's not much he can do to improve his stock in the minors. It was easy to move younger hitters ahead of him who had great springs and at this point may be up sooner than Mayo.

Travis Pastore: Every time I look up minor-league stats, Matt Wilkinson's (CLE) name is usually atop the leaderboard, yet he barely gets ranked on most lists. Is it just a matter of the fastball velocity topping out at 91 mph?

I considered including Wilkinson, and if you want to treat him as a top-400 prospect, that's perfectly fine. My main goal with him is to make sure people are aware that he's not nearly as good as his numbers. The fastball is troubling, as is the fact we haven't seen him against upper-level hitters. This year will be a big test for him at Double-A, and even in his own system, guys like Michael Kennedy and Austin Peterson might be better versions of Wilkinson, where it's command and depth of arsenal over pure stuff. 

Luke Anderson: I'm curious of your thoughts on Chase DeLauter (CLE). Is now a good time to buy low with his stock trending down or are you avoiding trading for him given the injury history? Also, Alejandro Osuna (TEX) is having a monster spring -- can you dive into his profile?

I'm a pretty big believer in players being injury-prone, even if we can't always call that out before it's too late. The data across other sports besides just baseball is that the biggest predictor of future injuries is past injuries, especially with anything in the lower-body for position players or anything with repetitive arm issues with pitchers, and DeLauter has been injured more often than he's been healthy at this point. I wouldn't trade for him, and I wasn't sure where to rank him, but if someone came calling looking to "buy low" I'd see if I could turn him into a prospect I've got ranked higher.

As for Osuna, he reached another gear as an offensive producer last year at High-A and Double-A, which is important, as he might fit best as a left fielder on a good team. He was even better this spring, and it looks like he's added more muscle/trimmed some body fat. One big thing working against him earlier this offseason was how crowded the Rangers seemed, but with Evan Carter a shell of his former self, that's less of an issue. I'm interested to see how much Osuna runs this year, but it seems like he might hit enough to at least be a strong-side platoon left fielder as early as this summer.

Danny J: What will Felnin Celesten (SEA) need to show you to get into the top 25?

He just needs to play and perform. He's done very little of the playing part since signing, and I am not going to rank him top 25 based on him having a good 32 games as an 18-year-old in complex ball. Remember, he signed in the same class as Sebastian Walcott (TEX), and consider how much Walcott has done since signing compared to Celesten. He's 19 this year, so he should rake at Single-A, and if he does that, I'm sure he'll be top 25 soon enough.

Mark Vogel: How closely do you track category totals while drafting?

I'm not closely tracking categories while I draft using a software. I will roughly track steals, but I don't feel the need to track the other nine categories while drafting. I've had more success this way than when I used to enter every pick during a draft into a software, but I think it's a great way to draft if that level of knowledge/control is important to you and you're not as concerned about which specific players you're drafting. I'm much more focused on tiers of players I like at positions. I only consider about 60-70 percent of the player pool and I think I know the players well enough to hit my categories appropriately.

Luke Anderson: I saw that Robby Snelling's (MIA) average velocity was up this spring but noticed he has a down arrow next to his name. Why did he drop? Also, is Yoniel Curet (TB) droppable now with his injury or would you hold onto him?

His velocity was up in a one-inning burst, but he also had more walks than strikeouts against big leaguers and he's set to open the year at Double-A. I guess I thought a good spring for Snelling would be to make more noise as a starter in camp — he didn't really get to work as a true starter — but if he's showing that same mid-90s velocity over 5- and 6-inning starts while throwing enough strikes, he'll be a big riser.

As for Curet, you could drop him just based on the 60-day IL aspect, particularly if you can add someone in my top 150 or so. 

Beerbot: Maybe a few words on Sal Stewart (CIN)? Has had a nice steady incline since October 2023...

Stewart has been a favorite of mine for a while and now it seems like more people are catching on. He's just such a good pure hitter, both for average and OBP, and I think a power breakout is obviously coming sooner than later. I don't put much stock in his stolen-base totals, as he's more of a four-category hitting prospect than a five-category one, but he can do a little bit of everything and could retain 2B and 3B eligibility some years.

It'sMe-ChrisC: Did you fade Rhett Lowder (CIN) due to injury or performance?

I had him ranked 134 before the injury, so I was already fading his fantasy utility — I think he'll be a better real-life pitcher than fantasy pitcher due to the lack of Ks and his home park. Then throw in the elbow issue and his main appeal (proximity) is in jeopardy, so now he's just inside the top 200.

Mr. Met: Is Chandler Simpson (TB) a fast Jacob Wilson (ATH)?

Xavier Edwards is a fast Jacob Wilson, because he can play shortstop. Simpson has been working on being playable in center field, but if he could handle shortstop, he'd be ranked quite a bit higher because the playing time would be guaranteed. Wilson also has notably more pop than Simpson, as Wilson could hit eight homers in a season and Simpson's only homers will be inside-the-parkers.

Wotton: Thoughts on Sabin Ceballos (SF)? I've read he's had a great spring swinging the bat. Is he legit? Worthy of a pickup in a 14-16 team dynasty league?

Good callout on Ceballos. I didn't consider adding him on this update, but I can see a case for valuing him in the 250-400 range. His biggest issue is his age (turns 23 in August) and lack of upper-level experience or defensive utility, which means he'll have to rake all the way to the big leagues.

Matthew King: Dynasty roto keep forever. Pick a side. Mookie Betts and Sebastian Walcott (TEX) or Wyatt Langford (TEX)?

I'll go with Wyatt Langford. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, and at this point I'd take Langford over Betts just for 2025 due to Betts' illness and weight loss. For what it's worth, Betts + Walcott went for a combined $43 in this startup dynasty auction and Langford went for $63, although the auction dynamics make that gap seem larger than it really is.