This article is part of our Weekly Pitcher Rankings series.
A piece published in The Athletic last week showed fly balls aren't traveling as far as usual. Here's some specific Statcast data:
Year | AEV (mph) | HardHit% | BABIP | Ave Distance |
---|---|---|---|---|
2021 | 92.3 | 44.9% | 0.125 | 319.1 |
2022 | 91.9 | 43.2% | 0.125 | 315.7 |
2023 | 92.2 | 44.3% | 0.118 | 317.4 |
2024 | 92.1 | 43.7% | 0.117 | 315.6 |
2025 | 92.7 | 45.8% | 0.114 | 314.9 |
Batters are hitting fly balls harder than the past several seasons, but they aren't getting the same carry. This could be due to the colder-than-usual conditions, yet there's also evidence the seams are wider and that could influence drag (i.e. wind resistance).
Home runs are predictably down. The main takeaway for fantasy purposes is until carry picks up, don't be as fearful streaming in homer-friendly ballparks or worry about high fly ball rates.
This is the time I usually request that rotation questions be addressed to the Probable Pitchers discussion, but it's no longer available so I'll accept rotation queries. And if I don't know the answer, I'll hit up the crew setting them for their input. I'll always know the answer to ranking questions, so please continue to drop those below.
UPDATED: Monday June 16, 12:50 AM ET
Week of June 16 - 22
Mixed League
Rank | Pitcher | TM | OPP | Comments |
1 | Tarik Skubal | DET | PIT | |
2 | Paul Skenes | PIT | @DET | |
3 | Framber Valdez | HOU | @ATH | |
4 | Andrew Abbott | CIN | MIN, @STL | A little over his skis, but breakthrough is for real |
5 | Spencer Schwellenbach | ATL | NYM, @MIA | |
6 | Garrett Crochet |
A piece published in The Athletic last week showed fly balls aren't traveling as far as usual. Here's some specific Statcast data:
Year | AEV (mph) | HardHit% | BABIP | Ave Distance |
---|---|---|---|---|
2021 | 92.3 | 44.9% | 0.125 | 319.1 |
2022 | 91.9 | 43.2% | 0.125 | 315.7 |
2023 | 92.2 | 44.3% | 0.118 | 317.4 |
2024 | 92.1 | 43.7% | 0.117 | 315.6 |
2025 | 92.7 | 45.8% | 0.114 | 314.9 |
Batters are hitting fly balls harder than the past several seasons, but they aren't getting the same carry. This could be due to the colder-than-usual conditions, yet there's also evidence the seams are wider and that could influence drag (i.e. wind resistance).
Home runs are predictably down. The main takeaway for fantasy purposes is until carry picks up, don't be as fearful streaming in homer-friendly ballparks or worry about high fly ball rates.
This is the time I usually request that rotation questions be addressed to the Probable Pitchers discussion, but it's no longer available so I'll accept rotation queries. And if I don't know the answer, I'll hit up the crew setting them for their input. I'll always know the answer to ranking questions, so please continue to drop those below.
UPDATED: Monday June 16, 12:50 AM ET
Week of June 16 - 22
Mixed League
Rank | Pitcher | TM | OPP | Comments |
1 | Tarik Skubal | DET | PIT | |
2 | Paul Skenes | PIT | @DET | |
3 | Framber Valdez | HOU | @ATH | |
4 | Andrew Abbott | CIN | MIN, @STL | A little over his skis, but breakthrough is for real |
5 | Spencer Schwellenbach | ATL | NYM, @MIA | |
6 | Garrett Crochet | BOS | @SEA | |
7 | Max Fried | NYY | BAL | |
8 | Dylan Cease | SD | @LAD, KC | |
9 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | NYM | |
10 | Clarke Schmidt | NYY | LAA, BAL | Deserves to be on the All-Star team |
11 | Ben Brown | CHC | MIL, SEA | Changeup usage up to between 8-10 percent |
12 | Ryan Pepiot | TB | BAL, DET | |
13 | Jacob deGrom | TEX | KC | |
14 | Kris Bubic | KC | @TEX | Walks edging up |
15 | Chris Sale | ATL | NYM | |
16 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | BOS, @CHC | |
17 | Joe Ryan | MIN | MIL | |
18 | Shane Smith | CWS | STL, @TOR | Most Rule 5 pitchers spend the season in mop-up, not challenging for ROY |
19 | Seth Lugo | KC | @TEX, @SD | |
20 | Robbie Ray | SF | CLE, BOS | We're getting the Dr. Jekyll version |
21 | Drew Rasmussen | TB | BAL | |
22 | Kumar Rocker | TEX | @PIT | |
23 | Matthew Boyd | CHC | SEA | |
24 | Hunter Brown | HOU | @LAA | |
25 | Zach Eflin | BAL | @TB, @NYY | |
26 | Cristopher Sanchez | PHI | @MIA | |
27 | David Peterson | NYM | @ATL, @PHI | Solid ranking considering tough road pair |
28 | Bailey Ober | MIN | @CIN | This is about the time he went on his stellar run last season |
29 | Carlos Rodon | NYY | LAA | |
30 | Chris Bassitt | TOR | ARI, CWS | |
31 | Logan Webb | SF | BOS | |
32 | Spencer Strider | ATL | NYM | |
33 | Ranger Suarez | PHI | @MIA | |
34 | Merrill Kelly | ARI | @COL | |
35 | Chris Paddack | MIN | @CIN | I admit, I was wr… I was wro… I was wrong |
36 | Kevin Gausman | TOR | ARI | |
37 | Nick Pivetta | SD | KC | Still solid, but has returned to earth |
38 | Lance McCullers | HOU | @ATH, @LAA | |
39 | Jesus Luzardo | PHI | @MIA, NYM | Great call by 56 percent of managers starting him in NFBC last week |
40 | Trevor Rogers | BAL | @TB | |
41 | Zac Gallen | ARI | @COL | |
42 | Andre Pallante | STL | CIN | |
43 | Jack Flaherty | DET | @TB | |
44 | Tanner Bibee | CLE | @ATH | |
45 | Nick Lodolo | CIN | MIN | |
46 | Eduardo Rodriguez | ARI | @TOR | |
47 | David Festa | MIN | @CIN, MIL | Enough hype, let's see some results |
48 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD | SD | Padres roughed him up a bit last week |
49 | Bryan Woo | SEA | BOS | |
50 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | PHI, ATL | Great test to learn if recent uptick was from facing PIT and COL |
51 | Miles Mikolas | STL | CIN | |
52 | Sonny Gray | STL | @CWS | |
53 | Casey Mize | DET | PIT, @TB | Nice pair to snap out of funk |
54 | Jose Soriano | LAA | @NYY, HOU | |
55 | Noah Cameron | KC | @SD | |
56 | Davis Martin | CWS | @TOR | |
57 | Michael Wacha | KC | @TEX | |
58 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | WAS | |
59 | Jameson Taillon | CHC | MIL | |
60 | Jack Leiter | TEX | KC, @PIT | |
61 | Hayden Birdsong | SF | CLE | |
62 | Gavin Williams | CLE | @SF | |
63 | Shawn Armstrong | TEX | @PIT | |
64 | Mitch Keller | PIT | TEX | |
65 | Grant Holmes | ATL | @MIA | |
66 | Shane Baz | TB | DET | |
67 | Zack Littell | TB | BAL, DET | |
68 | Landen Roupp | SF | BOS | |
69 | Dustin May | LAD | WAS | |
70 | Walker Buehler | BOS | @SEA | |
71 | Jose Berrios | TOR | CWS | |
72 | Aaron Civale | CWS | @TOR | New team, same mediocrity |
73 | Brandon Pfaadt | ARI | @TOR, @COL | |
74 | Taj Bradley | TB | BAL | |
75 | Edward Cabrera | MIA | PHI | |
76 | Lucas Giolito | BOS | @SEA, @SF | |
77 | Erick Fedde | STL | @CWS | |
78 | Luis Castillo | SEA | BOS | |
79 | Ryne Nelson | ARI | @TOR | |
80 | Cade Horton | CHC | MIL | |
81 | Ben Casparius | LAD | SD, WAS | |
82 | Luis Severino | ATH | HOU | |
83 | Dean Kremer | BAL | @TB | |
84 | Michael Soroka | WAS | COL, @LAD | |
85 | Emmet Sheehan | LAD | SD | |
86 | Brayan Bello | BOS | @SF | |
87 | Patrick Corbin | TEX | KC | |
88 | Ryan Yarbrough | NYY | LAA | |
89 | Freddy Peralta | MIL | @CHC | |
90 | Tylor Megill | NYM | @PHI | |
91 | Colin Rea | CHC | SEA | |
92 | Clay Holmes | NYM | @ATL | |
93 | Bailey Falter | PIT | @DET, TEX | |
94 | Hunter Dobbins | BOS | @SF | |
95 | Mitchell Parker | WAS | COL | |
96 | Mix 12 Reliever | |||
97 | Simeon Woods Richardson | MIN | MIL | |
98 | Mitch Spence | ATH | HOU | |
99 | MacKenzie Gore | WAS | @LAD | |
100 | Jeffrey Springs | ATH | CLE | |
101 | Michael Lorenzen | KC | @SD | |
102 | George Kirby | SEA | @CHC | |
103 | Trevor Williams | WAS | COL | |
104 | Matthew Liberatore | STL | @CWS, CIN | |
105 | Bowden Francis | TOR | CWS | |
106 | Nick Martinez | CIN | MIN | |
107 | Griffin Canning | NYM | @PHI | |
108 | Mix 15 Reliever | |||
109 | Chad Patrick | MIL | @CHC, @MIN | |
110 | Brady Singer | CIN | @STL | |
111 | Jake Irvin | WAS | COL, @LAD | |
112 | Colton Gordon | HOU | @ATH | |
113 | Luis L. Ortiz | CLE | @ATH | |
114 | Charlie Morton | BAL | @TB | |
115 | Yusei Kikuchi | LAA | HOU | |
116 | Keider Montero | DET | PIT | |
117 | Quinn Priester | MIL | @MIN | |
118 | Will Warren | NYY | LAA, BAL | |
119 | Jose Quintana | MIL | @MIN | |
120 | Sean Burke | CWS | STL | |
121 | Sawyer Gipson-Long | DET | @TB | |
122 | Tomoyuki Sugano | BAL | @NYY | |
123 | Mick Abel | PHI | @MIA, NYM | |
124 | Logan Allen | CLE | @SF | |
125 | Wade Miley | CIN | @STL | |
126 | Eury Perez | MIA | ATL | |
127 | Brandon Walter | HOU | @LAA | |
128 | JP Sears | ATH | HOU, CLE | |
129 | Ryan Gusto | HOU | @ATH | |
130 | Slade Cecconi | CLE | @SF, @ATH | |
131 | Justin Verlander | SF | CLE | |
132 | Jacob Misiorowski | MIL | @CHC | |
133 | J.T. Ginn | ATH | HOU, CLE | |
134 | Bryce Elder | ATL | @MIA | |
135 | Kyle Hendricks | LAA | @NYY, HOU | |
136 | Adrian Houser | CWS | STL | |
137 | Cade Povich | BAL | @NYY | |
138 | Mike Burrows | PIT | TEX | |
139 | German Marquez | COL | @WAS | |
140 | Chase Dollander | COL | @WAS | |
141 | Carson Palmquist | COL | @WAS, ARI | |
142 | Stephen Kolek | SD | @LAD | |
143 | Janson Junk | MIA | ATL | |
144 | Eric Lauer | TOR | ARI | |
145 | Emerson Hancock | SEA | @CHC | |
146 | Cal Quantrill | MIA | PHI | |
147 | Randy Vasquez | SD | @LAD, KC | |
148 | Andrew Heaney | PIT | @DET | |
149 | Paul Blackburn | NYM | @ATL | |
150 | Ryan Bergert | SD | @LAD | |
151 | Matt Sauer | LAD | SD | |
152 | Jack Kochanowicz | LAA | @NYY | |
153 | Austin Gomber | COL | ARI | |
154 | Tyler Anderson | LAA | @NYY | |
155 | Antonio Senzatela | COL | @WAS, ARI | |
156 | Freddy Tarnok | MIA | PHI |
American League
Rank | Pitcher | TM | OPP | Comment |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Tarik Skubal | DET | PIT | |
2 | Framber Valdez | HOU | @ATH | |
3 | Garrett Crochet | BOS | @SEA | |
4 | Max Fried | NYY | BAL | |
5 | Clarke Schmidt | NYY | LAA, BAL | Deserves to be on the All-Star team |
6 | Ryan Pepiot | TB | BAL, DET | |
7 | Jacob deGrom | TEX | KC | |
8 | Kris Bubic | KC | @TEX | Walks edging up |
9 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | BOS, @CHC | |
10 | Joe Ryan | MIN | MIL | |
11 | Shane Smith | CWS | STL, @TOR | Most Rule 5 pitchers spend the season in mop-up, not challenging for ROY |
12 | Seth Lugo | KC | @TEX, @SD | |
13 | Drew Rasmussen | TB | BAL | |
14 | Kumar Rocker | TEX | @PIT | |
15 | Hunter Brown | HOU | @LAA | |
16 | Zach Eflin | BAL | @TB, @NYY | |
17 | Bailey Ober | MIN | @CIN | This is about the time he went on his stellar run last season |
18 | Carlos Rodon | NYY | LAA | |
19 | Chris Bassitt | TOR | ARI, CWS | |
20 | Chris Paddack | MIN | @CIN | I admit, I was wr… I was wro… I was wrong |
21 | Kevin Gausman | TOR | ARI | |
22 | Lance McCullers | HOU | @ATH, @LAA | |
23 | Trevor Rogers | BAL | @TB | |
24 | Jack Flaherty | DET | @TB | |
25 | Tanner Bibee | CLE | @ATH | |
26 | David Festa | MIN | @CIN, MIL | Enough hype, let's see some results |
27 | Bryan Woo | SEA | BOS | |
28 | Casey Mize | DET | PIT, @TB | Nice pair to snap out of funk |
29 | Jose Soriano | LAA | @NYY, HOU | |
30 | Noah Cameron | KC | @SD | |
31 | Davis Martin | CWS | @TOR | |
32 | Michael Wacha | KC | @TEX | |
33 | Jack Leiter | TEX | KC, @PIT | |
34 | Gavin Williams | CLE | @SF | |
35 | Shawn Armstrong | TEX | @PIT | |
36 | Shane Baz | TB | DET | |
37 | Zack Littell | TB | BAL, DET | |
38 | Walker Buehler | BOS | @SEA | |
39 | Jose Berrios | TOR | CWS | |
40 | Aaron Civale | CWS | @TOR | New team, same mediocrity |
41 | Taj Bradley | TB | BAL | |
42 | Lucas Giolito | BOS | @SEA, @SF | |
43 | Luis Castillo | SEA | BOS | |
44 | Luis Severino | ATH | HOU | |
45 | Dean Kremer | BAL | @TB | |
46 | Brayan Bello | BOS | @SF | |
47 | Patrick Corbin | TEX | KC | |
48 | Ryan Yarbrough | NYY | LAA | |
49 | Hunter Dobbins | BOS | @SF | |
50 | Simeon Woods Richardson | MIN | MIL | |
51 | Mitch Spence | ATH | HOU | |
52 | Jeffrey Springs | ATH | CLE | |
53 | Michael Lorenzen | KC | @SD | |
54 | George Kirby | SEA | @CHC | |
55 | Bowden Francis | TOR | CWS | |
56 | Colton Gordon | HOU | @ATH | |
57 | Luis L. Ortiz | CLE | @ATH | |
58 | Charlie Morton | BAL | @TB | |
59 | Yusei Kikuchi | LAA | HOU | |
60 | Keider Montero | DET | PIT | |
61 | Will Warren | NYY | LAA, BAL | |
62 | Sean Burke | CWS | STL | |
63 | Sawyer Gipson-Long | DET | @TB | |
64 | AL Reliever | |||
65 | Tomoyuki Sugano | BAL | @NYY | |
66 | Logan Allen | CLE | @SF | |
67 | Brandon Walter | HOU | @LAA | |
68 | JP Sears | ATH | HOU, CLE | |
69 | Ryan Gusto | HOU | @ATH | |
70 | Slade Cecconi | CLE | @SF, @ATH | |
71 | J.T. Ginn | ATH | HOU, CLE | |
72 | Kyle Hendricks | LAA | @NYY, HOU | |
73 | Adrian Houser | CWS | STL | |
74 | Cade Povich | BAL | @NYY | |
75 | Eric Lauer | TOR | ARI | |
76 | Emerson Hancock | SEA | @CHC | |
77 | Jack Kochanowicz | LAA | @NYY | |
78 | Tyler Anderson | LAA | @NYY |
National League
Rank | Pitcher | TM | OPP | Comment |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Paul Skenes | PIT | @DET | |
2 | Andrew Abbott | CIN | MIN, @STL | A little over his skis, but breakthrough is for real |
3 | Spencer Schwellenbach | ATL | NYM, @MIA | |
4 | Dylan Cease | SD | @LAD, KC | |
5 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | NYM | |
6 | Ben Brown | CHC | MIL, SEA | Changeup usage up to between 8-10 percent |
7 | Chris Sale | ATL | NYM | |
8 | Robbie Ray | SF | CLE, BOS | We're getting the Dr. Jekyll version |
9 | Matthew Boyd | CHC | SEA | |
10 | Cristopher Sanchez | PHI | @MIA | |
11 | David Peterson | NYM | @ATL, @PHI | Solid ranking considering tough road pair |
12 | Logan Webb | SF | BOS | |
13 | Spencer Strider | ATL | NYM | |
14 | Ranger Suarez | PHI | @MIA | |
15 | Merrill Kelly | ARI | @COL | |
16 | Nick Pivetta | SD | KC | Still solid, but has returned to earth |
17 | Jesus Luzardo | PHI | @MIA, NYM | Great call by 56 percent of managers starting him in NFBC last week |
18 | Zac Gallen | ARI | @COL | |
19 | Andre Pallante | STL | CIN | |
20 | Nick Lodolo | CIN | MIN | |
21 | Eduardo Rodriguez | ARI | @TOR | |
22 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD | SD | Padres roughed him up a bit last week |
23 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | PHI, ATL | Great test to learn if recent uptick was from facing PIT and COL |
24 | Miles Mikolas | STL | CIN | |
25 | Sonny Gray | STL | @CWS | |
26 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | WAS | |
27 | Jameson Taillon | CHC | MIL | |
28 | Hayden Birdsong | SF | CLE | |
29 | Mitch Keller | PIT | TEX | |
30 | Grant Holmes | ATL | @MIA | |
31 | Landen Roupp | SF | BOS | |
32 | Dustin May | LAD | WAS | |
33 | Brandon Pfaadt | ARI | @TOR, @COL | |
34 | Edward Cabrera | MIA | PHI | |
35 | Erick Fedde | STL | @CWS | |
36 | Ryne Nelson | ARI | @TOR | |
37 | Cade Horton | CHC | MIL | |
38 | Ben Casparius | LAD | SD, WAS | |
39 | Michael Soroka | WAS | COL, @LAD | |
40 | Emmet Sheehan | LAD | SD | |
41 | Freddy Peralta | MIL | @CHC | |
42 | Tylor Megill | NYM | @PHI | |
43 | Colin Rea | CHC | SEA | |
44 | Clay Holmes | NYM | @ATL | |
45 | Bailey Falter | PIT | @DET, TEX | |
46 | Mitchell Parker | WAS | COL | |
47 | MacKenzie Gore | WAS | @LAD | |
48 | Trevor Williams | WAS | COL | |
49 | Matthew Liberatore | STL | @CWS, CIN | |
50 | Nick Martinez | CIN | MIN | |
51 | Griffin Canning | NYM | @PHI | |
52 | Chad Patrick | MIL | @CHC, @MIN | |
53 | Brady Singer | CIN | @STL | |
54 | Jake Irvin | WAS | COL, @LAD | |
55 | Quinn Priester | MIL | @MIN | |
56 | Jose Quintana | MIL | @MIN | |
57 | NL Reliever | |||
58 | Mick Abel | PHI | @MIA, NYM | |
59 | Wade Miley | CIN | @STL | |
60 | Eury Perez | MIA | ATL | |
61 | Justin Verlander | SF | CLE | |
62 | Jacob Misiorowski | MIL | @CHC | |
63 | Bryce Elder | ATL | @MIA | |
64 | Mike Burrows | PIT | TEX | |
65 | German Marquez | COL | @WAS | |
66 | Chase Dollander | COL | @WAS | |
67 | Carson Palmquist | COL | @WAS, ARI | |
68 | Stephen Kolek | SD | @LAD | |
69 | Janson Junk | MIA | ATL | |
70 | Cal Quantrill | MIA | PHI | |
71 | Randy Vasquez | SD | @LAD, KC | |
72 | Andrew Heaney | PIT | @DET | |
73 | Paul Blackburn | NYM | @ATL | |
74 | Ryan Bergert | SD | @LAD | |
75 | Matt Sauer | LAD | SD | |
76 | Austin Gomber | COL | ARI | |
77 | Antonio Senzatela | COL | @WAS, ARI | |
78 | Freddy Tarnok | MIA | PHI |