Fantasy 101: DFS Site Scoring Analysis

Michael Rathburn explains why a player's value on one DFS site may not be applicable on others, while also breaking down which players to target based on the format.

Updated on May 29, 2015 3:31PM EST

By:

Michael Rathburn

Updated on May 29, 2015 3:31PM EST

Fantasy 101

This week, I delve into the three major daily fantasy sites: FanDuel, DraftKings and Fantasy Aces and look at each site scoring system based on a target score for cash games (heads up and 50/50) contests. This will reveal how to play on each site and where you can find an edge. I know it's a bit technical this week, so please post any thoughts or questions you might have, and I will answer as best I can.

FanDuel Cash Games (H2H and Double Ups)

Overall target score: 40

Hitting Target: 25

CAT	PTS	% of TGT
Single	1	4.00
Double	2	8.00
Triple	3	12.00
Home Run	4	16.00
Run Scored	1	4.00
Run Batted In	1	4.00
Walk	1	4.00
Stolen Base	2	8.00
Out	-0.25	-1.00

Pitching Target: 15

CAT	PTS	% of TGT
Inning Pitched	1	6.67
Win	4	26.67
Earned Run	-1	-6.67
Strikeouts	1	6.67

The key things to note on FanDuel is how much the pitching win (26.67 percent) and the homerun (16 percent) are important in the target scores. Stolen bases are worth the same as a double, so if a hitter gets a single or a walk and then steals a base, there is more value in that outcome. Run support becomes a very important thing when selecting your starting pitcher because you need innings, which correlate into opportunities for the win and strikeouts. The negative points per out make each at-bat worth more, and puts more emphasis on power. You will see how this plays out when we compare player rankings by site.

DraftKings Cash Games (H2H and Double Ups)

Overall target score: 120

Hitting target: 70

CAT	PTS	% of TGT
Single	3	4.29
Double	5	7.14
Triple	8	11.43
Home Run	10	14.29
Run Scored	2	2.86
Run Batted In	2	2.86
Walk	2	2.86
Stolen Base	5	7.14
Caught Stealing	-2	-2.86

Pitching target: 50

CAT	PTS	% of TGT	(x2 SP)
Inning Pitched	2.25	4.50	9.00
Win	4	8.00	16.00
Earned Run	-2	-4.00	-8.00
Strikeout	2	4.00	8.00
Loss	-2	-4.00	-8.00
Hit Allowed	-0.6	-1.20	-2.40
Walk/Hit By Pitch	-0.6	-1.20	-2.40
Complete Game	2.5	5.00	10.00
Strikeout	2.5	5.00	10.00
No Hitter	5	10.00	20.00

While the pitching win and the home run are still at the top of the percentages, they are less when compared to FanDuel. There is a premium placed on singles for hitters on DraftKings (4.29 percent versus 4.00 percent) which might not seem like a lot, but it is and you will see later on in this piece when we compare 2014 player rankings on each site. Runs, RBI and walks are worth less than singles, making those leadoff hitters so valuable. You want to accumulate as many at-bats as possible on DraftKings because there are no negative points (except caught stealing).

Looking at the rest of the pitching categories, you can see where innings pitched being 9.0 percent is key along with the negative points for hits and walks allowed. With a two-pitcher site it is important that you look for value in a pitcher that has a matchup where he can attack a weak team (high strikeouts, pitcher's park, low power output, low walk rate).

Fantasy Aces Cash Games (H2H and Double Ups)

Overall target score: 50

Hitting target: 30

CAT	PTS	% of TGT
Single	1	3.33
Double	2	6.67
Triple	3	10.00
Home Run	4	13.33
Run Scored	1.25	4.17
Run Batted In	1.25	4.17
Walk	1	3.33
Stolen Base	2	6.67
Strikeout	-0.5	-1.67
Hit By Pitch	0.5	1.67

Pitching target: 20

CAT	PTS	% of TGT	(x2 SP)
Inning Pitched	1.5	3.00	6.00
Win	3	6.00	12.00
Earned Run	-1	-2.00	-4.00
Strikeout	1	2.00	4.00
Hit	-0.25	0.50	-1.00
Walk/Hit By Pitch	-0.25	-0.50	-1.00

Fantasy Aces is almost the opposite of DraftKings in that runs, RBI and walks have more of a premium. Also, because of the negative points on hitters for strikeouts, finding those top-of-the-order players that draw walks is crucial. Earned runs and strikeouts are equal value, but notice innings pitched: it accounts for six percent of the target, but it's a higher percentage when compared to earned runs allowed (six percent vs. -4 percent) over DraftKings (nine percent vs. -8 percent) so getting pitchers that go deep into games is more important on Fantasy Aces.

Hitter Profiles (Based on 2014 Rankings)

FanDuel (Differential versus DraftKings rankings)

If you look at this group of players, you notice that they are all mostly power hitters that do not steal bases. This type of player profile is more advantageous on FanDuel versus DraftKings.

Player	FD Rank	DK Rank
Michael Saunders	124	172
Mike McKenry	118	157
Devin Mesoraco	32	67
Russell Martin	71	100
Adam LaRoche	29	54
Adrian Gonzalez	31	56
Lucas Duda	62	86
Brandon Moss	89	113
Carlos Santana	43	66
Ryan Zimmerman	87	110
Chris Davis	96	119
Mark Trumbo	97	120
Josh Willingham	111	131
Hanley Ramirez	45	64
Mike Napoli	79	98
Chris Carter	60	78
Ryan Howard	117	133
Matt Kemp	30	45
Avisail Garcia	86	101
Drew Stubbs	106	121
Corey Dickerson	23	37
Justin Upton	28	42
Steve Pearce	33	46
Trevor Plouffe	75	88
Khris Davis	116	129

DraftKings (Differential versus FanDuel rankings)

The players on DraftKings that outranked FanDuel are profiling mostly as singles hitters with speed that hit at the top of the lineup. Also, I noticed there were a lot of left-handed hitters in this group.

Player	FD Rank	DK Rank
Ben Revere	77	129
Michael Bourn	106	147
Brock Holt	59	98
Shane Victorino	114	153
Nick Markakis	89	122
Angel Pagan	70	99
Jose Reyes	21	47
Denard Span	20	44
Manny Machado	97	121
Jason Kipnis	115	137
Daniel Murphy	69	90
Dee Gordon	17	35
Jimmy Rollins	33	51
Ian Kinsler	43	61
Adam Eaton	65	83
Desmond Jennings	103	120
Alexei Ramirez	85	101
Christian Yelich	25	40
Hunter Pence	31	46
Charlie Blackmon	48	63
A.J. Pollock	36	50
Jose Altuve	6	17
Melky Cabrera	30	41
Josh Harrison	63	74
Billy Hamilton	80	91

Fantasy Aces (Differential versus FanDuel and DraftKings rankings)

The hitters you want on Fantasy Aces are high BB:K guys because they penalize for strikeouts. Also, there is a premium on runs and RBI, so you want those middle-of-the-order hitters that will have the most opportunities to score and drive in runs.

Player	FA Rank	DK Rank	FD Rank
Norichika Aoki	102	127	141
Ian Kinsler	24	43	61
Erick Aybar	96	124	132
Ben Revere	95	77	129
Pablo Sandoval	116	139	148
Shane Victorino	122	114	153
Nick Markakis	93	89	122
Alexei Ramirez	74	85	101
Dustin Pedroia	89	104	115
Jose Reyes	23	21	47
Nolan Arenado	36	52	58
Daniel Murphy	68	69	90
Prince Fielder	121	150	143
Albert Pujols	17	38	36
Melky Cabrera	22	30	41
Denard Span	25	20	44
Robinson Cano	37	53	56
Justin Morneau	47	74	66
Coco Crisp	66	84	84
Asdrubal Cabrera	105	116	123
Josh Reddick	109	148	127
Buster Posey	38	60	55
Torii Hunter	76	90	92
Angel Pagan	84	70	99
Wilin Rosario	118	141	133

Keep all of these things in my mind when you are playing daily fantasy baseball on the individual sites. Not everything is created equal. The salaries, roster format and scoring systems all dictate a different strategy for success.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Michael Rathburn plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: burnnotice, DraftKings: burnnotice, Yahoo: burnnotice, Fantasy Aces: burnnotice, FantasyDraft: burnnotice.