Advanced Data (Park Factors + Vegas Lines)
If you read my daily fantasy basketball columns, you know I LOVE research. I believe that providing data to players, especially new players, helps them in building their lineups on a day in, day out basis. Baseball is my first love, so anytime I get to dig into numbers for MLB its a privilege. Over the next few weeks, I will start to delve into a lot of data and show how it is relevant to helping you win in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel, DraftKings, and DraftStreet. This week we look at park factors and how to use the Vegas lines for building lineups.
Park Factors Breakdown (2011-2013)
There are a lot of different park factor metrics out there and I have always been torn as to which ones are the most accurate. In order to get the best data, I applied the individual site scoring system to the data over the last three years. With park factors, you have to run the data for at least three years to get some normalization. You will see there is about a 20 percent swing both ways from the middle team Twins versus the Giants and the Rockies park results. Eight out of the top 11 parks are from the National League.
Rankings for Starting Pitchers (Avg Pts per At Bat Allowed)
| Park | Fanduel | DraftKings | DraftStreet |
|---|---|---|---|
| AT and T Park (Giants) | 2.09 | 6.68 | 2.76 |
| PNC Park (Pirates) | 2.19 | 7.05 | 2.93 |
| Dodger Stadium (Dodgers) | 2.23 | 7.04 | 2.92 |
| Safeco Field (Mariners) | 2.26 | 7.20 | 2.98 |
| Petco Park (Padres) | 2.26 | 7.08 | 2.96 |
| Marlins Park (Marlins) | 2.26 | 7.19 | 2.99 |
| Oakland Coliseum (A's) | 2.30 | 7.32 | 3.05 |
| Busch Stadium (Cardinals) | 2.34 | 7.52 | 3.12 |
| Citi Field (Mets) | 2.36 | 7.41 | 3.09 |
| Tropicana Field (Rays) | 2.36 | 7.37 | 3.06 |
| Nationals Park (Nationals) | 2.36 | 7.55 | 3.15 |
| Angels Stadium (Angels) | 2.38 | 7.58 | 3.17 |
| Turner Field (Braves) | 2.39 | 7.45 | 3.09 |
| Kauffman Stadium (Royals) | 2.42 | 7.73 | 3.25 |
| Target Field (Twins) | 2.46 | 7.90 | 3.32 |
| Citizens Bank Park (Phillies) | 2.49 | 7.85 | 3.28 |
| Progressive Field (Indians) | 2.51 | 7.90 | 3.30 |
| Wrigley Field (Cubs) | 2.53 | 7.92 | 3.30 |
| US Cellular (White Sox) | 2.59 | 8.10 | 3.39 |
| Great American (Reds) | 2.59 | 8.08 | 3.36 |
| Minute Maid Park (Astros) | 2.60 | 8.10 | 3.39 |
| Chase Field (Diamondbacks) | 2.64 | 8.31 | 3.47 |
| Comerica Park (Tigers) | 2.64 | 8.31 | 3.48 |
| Miller Park (Brewers) | 2.71 | 8.45 | 3.55 |
| Camden Yards (Orioles) | 2.73 | 8.61 | 3.59 |
| Yankee Stadium (Yankees) | 2.76 | 8.56 | 3.58 |
| Rangers Ballpark (Rangers) | 2.78 | 8.75 | 3.69 |
| Rogers Centre (BlueJays) | 2.79 | 8.70 | 3.65 |
| Fenway Park (Red Sox) | 2.85 | 8.84 | 3.72 |
| Coors Field (Rockies) | 2.98 | 9.27 | 3.92 |
Top Hitting Park Factors
Left Handed Hitters (Avg Pts per At Bat Allowed)
The park factors really impact left handed hitters at the bottom of this list when you compare the numbers versus the right handed batters (see list below). This is due to the extreme advantage that left handed pitchers have versus left handed hitters. Remember, mid tier players get platooned, while premium hitters remain in the lineup mostly to see their statistics depressed.
| Park | Fanduel | DraftKings | DraftStreet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coors Field (Rockies) | 3.04 | 9.30 | 3.93 |
| Yankee Stadium (Yankees) | 2.94 | 8.98 | 3.75 |
| Rangers Park (Rangers) | 2.85 | 8.90 | 3.75 |
| Fenway Park (Red Sox) | 2.84 | 8.80 | 3.70 |
| Camden Yards (Orioles) | 2.79 | 8.68 | 3.62 |
| Great American (Reds) | 2.74 | 8.33 | 3.45 |
| Rogers Centre (BlueJays) | 2.69 | 8.40 | 3.52 |
| Progressive Field (Indians) | 2.61 | 8.14 | 3.42 |
| US Cellular (White Sox) | 2.59 | 7.95 | 3.33 |
| Minute Maid Park (Astros) | 2.58 | 7.87 | 3.28 |
| Citzens Bank Park (Phillies) | 2.57 | 8.00 | 3.35 |
| Comerica Park (Tigers) | 2.57 | 8.02 | 3.36 |
| Chase Field (Diamondbacks) | 2.54 | 7.97 | 3.31 |
| Turner Field (Braves) | 2.53 | 7.72 | 3.21 |
| Miller Park (Brewers) | 2.47 | 7.62 | 3.18 |
| Wrigley Field (Cubs) | 2.45 | 7.50 | 3.11 |
| Tropicana Field (Rays) | 2.37 | 7.42 | 3.10 |
| Kauffman Stadium (Royals) | 2.36 | 7.50 | 3.16 |
| Citi Field (Mets) | 2.35 | 7.28 | 3.02 |
| Target Field (Twins) | 2.35 | 7.52 | 3.16 |
| Nationals Park (Nationals) | 2.33 | 7.43 | 3.10 |
| PNC Park (Pirates) | 2.29 | 7.24 | 3.01 |
| Busch Stadium (Cardinals) | 2.25 | 7.13 | 2.96 |
| Angels Stadium (Angels) | 2.23 | 7.12 | 2.98 |
| Safeco Field (Mariners) | 2.22 | 7.04 | 2.91 |
| Petco Park (Padres) | 2.21 | 6.78 | 2.83 |
| Oakland Coliseum (A's) | 2.17 | 6.90 | 2.88 |
| Dodger Stadium (Dodgers) | 2.17 | 6.85 | 2.84 |
| Marlins Park (Marlins) | 2.01 | 6.40 | 2.65 |
| AT & T Park (Giants) | 1.96 | 6.26 | 2.59 |
Right Handed Hitters (Avg Pts per At Bat Allowed)
Miller Park plays neutral for left handed hitters, but is top three for right handed bats. Of course, players like Ryan Braun help, but still a lot of the data is coming from opposing hitters. You can also say the same for the Marlins and Giancarlo Stanton's contribution to the data.
| Park | Fanduel | DraftKings | DraftStreet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coors Field (Rockies) | 2.93 | 9.24 | 3.91 |
| Rogers Centre (BlueJays) | 2.86 | 8.92 | 3.74 |
| Miller Park (Brewers) | 2.85 | 8.93 | 3.76 |
| Fenway Park (Red Sox) | 2.85 | 8.87 | 3.74 |
| Rangers Ballpark (Rangers) | 2.74 | 8.66 | 3.66 |
| Chase Field (Diamondbacks) | 2.71 | 8.54 | 3.58 |
| Comerica Park (Tigers) | 2.70 | 8.56 | 3.59 |
| Camden Park (Orioles) | 2.68 | 8.56 | 3.57 |
| Minute Maid Park (Astros) | 2.61 | 8.24 | 3.46 |
| Wrigley Field (Cubs) | 2.59 | 8.20 | 3.43 |
| Yankee Stadium (Yankees) | 2.59 | 8.16 | 3.41 |
| US Cellular (White Sox) | 2.58 | 8.20 | 3.43 |
| Target Field (Twins) | 2.57 | 8.26 | 3.46 |
| Great American (Reds) | 2.50 | 7.93 | 3.30 |
| Angels Stadium (Angels) | 2.48 | 7.91 | 3.31 |
| Kauffman Stadium (Royals) | 2.47 | 7.93 | 3.33 |
| Marlins Park (Marlins) | 2.44 | 7.74 | 3.23 |
| Oakland Coliseum (A's) | 2.42 | 7.69 | 3.21 |
| Citizens Park (Phillies) | 2.42 | 7.73 | 3.21 |
| Busch Stadium (Cardinals) | 2.41 | 7.81 | 3.24 |
| Progressive Field (Indians) | 2.38 | 7.56 | 3.14 |
| Nationals Park (Nationals) | 2.38 | 7.62 | 3.18 |
| Citi Field (Mets) | 2.36 | 7.52 | 3.15 |
| Tropicana Field (Rays) | 2.34 | 7.33 | 3.03 |
| PetCo Park (Padres) | 2.30 | 7.31 | 3.06 |
| Safeco Park (Mariners) | 2.30 | 7.38 | 3.07 |
| Turner Field (Braves) | 2.28 | 7.24 | 2.99 |
| Dodger Stadium (Dodgers) | 2.27 | 7.18 | 2.97 |
| AT & T Park (Giants) | 2.19 | 6.99 | 2.89 |
| PNC Park (Pirates) | 2.13 | 6.93 | 2.88 |
How to Use Vegas Money Lines / Totals
I selected three games from the Friday slate and use examples of how to project games with the Vegas numbers. While these are not exact, they do give you a great landscape to work with when deciding on your pitchers first and foremost, then your hitters in daily fantasy baseball.
How to read the Board
Look for lowest run total for pitchers, and highest run totals for hitters + FAVORED teams
Pitching – SD/WAS(-190) 6.5, MIA/NYM 7, CIN/ATL(-155) 7, PIT/STL 7, TEX/SEA 7, CHC/MIL 8(-175)
Hitting – PHI/ARI 9.5, OAK/HOU 8.5 (OAK -178), CHC/MIL 8(-175)
Vegas Data for Friday April 24, 2014
Padres @ Nationals -203; 6.5 over/under
Projected Starting Pitchers – Robbie Erlin / Stephen Strasburg
Take Strasburg Money Line and divide by 303 (money line plus 100)
Strasburg 203/303 = 67% projected win
Erlin 97/303 = 33% projected win
Projected Score – 6.5 run total x .67 = 4.36 runs for Nationals, 2.14 runs for Padres
Angels @ Yankees – 117; 8.5 over/under
Projected Starting Pitchers – CJ Wilson / Huroki Kuroda
Kuroda 117/217 = 54% projected win
Wilson 83/217 = 46% projected win
Projected Score – 8.5 run total x .54 = 4.59 runs for Yankees, 3.91 runs for Angels
Royals @ Orioles (Royals -107; 8.5 over/under)
Yordano Ventura vs Ubaldo Jimenez
***Vegas showing huge respect already here for "Ace" Ventura on the road against the Orioles as a favorite.
Ventura 107/207 = 52%
Jimenez 93/207 = 48%
Projected Score – 8.5 run total x .52 = 4.42 runs for Royals, 4.08 runs for Orioles
