This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Season Record: 2-2-1 (+0.86 RW Bucks)
It's another all-day slate Wednesday, but my attention is drawn to a pair of night AL clashes. There's a couple of pitchers I feel are particularly targetable, and I'm also jumping in on a player prop for a hitter that is overdue to break out of an atypical early slump while playing in a venue he's enjoyed plenty of success in before.
All odds listed are from FanDuel Sportsbook and current as of 11:30 am ET.
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox 7:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers: Jose Berrios vs. Nick Pivetta
The Pick: Blue Jays Over 4.5 total runs (-114) for 1 RW Buck
Secondary Pick: Bo Bichette at least 2 hits (+160) for 1 RW Buck
Pivetta has started off the season in poor form to say the least, having already allowed eight earned runs on nine hits, including three home runs, over 7.2 innings across two starts. The right-hander's mechanics were reportedly especially problematic in his most recent turn, and he now faces a lethal Blue Jays lineup that's underachieved to an extent thus far but that can still do plenty of damage, especially at Fenway.
In fact, current Blue Jays bats have belted 11 extra-base hits (six doubles, five home runs) against Pivetta in 72 career encounters. Several Toronto hitters have enjoyed plenty of success against him, not the least of which is Bichette. The talented shortstop is in an uncharacteristic funk to start the season, but Pivetta could be just the pitcher that coaxes him out of it. Bichette has pounded Pivetta for a .500 average with a pair of doubles and homers apiece in 15 career plate appearances, and he also generated a .361 average and 1.029 OPS in 79 PAs at Fenway last season.
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners 9:40pm ET
Starting Pitchers: Dane Dunning vs. Logan Gilbert
The Pick: Mariners Over 4 Total Runs (-110) for 1 RW Buck
Secondary Picks: Moneyline/Total Runs Parlay: Mariners/Over 8.5 runs (+280) for 1 RW Buck
Dunning has pitched to some contact over his first two starts, allowing 11 hits, including two home runs, over 8.2 innings. The right-hander is facing a Mariners lineup that appears to finally be starting to heat up, with Seattle having scored 13 total runs over the last two games and 11 four games ago. The Rangers bullpen has also been a targetable one in the early going this season, pitching to an MLB-high 5.68 ERA and .374 wOBA while also already facing the fourth-most batters (225) in all of baseball.
Gilbert displayed solid promise in his rookie 2021 campaign, and he appears set to make a big leap in Year 2. The right-hander has given up just two runs (one earned) over the 10 innings covering his first two starts, generating a stellar 11:1 K:BB along the way. Seattle is 3-1 at home in the early going, and behind Gilbert, the Seattle bullpen has pitched to a 2.27 ERA, MLB-low .165 BAA and AL-low .240 wOBA over a 138-batter sample.