This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
12 games are on the docket for Tuesday's main slate, where we've got ample pitching to sort through. Three arms check in with five-figure salaries, with five more priced north of $9,000. I was ice cold with yesterday's thoughts, so let's get after a bounce back.
Pitching
Given the depth of the pitching, the only real reason to pay all the way up for Zac Gallen at $10,900 is that most others probably won't. Walker Buehler at $9,800 will be a popular target against the Nationals, so who might get overlooked in this top tier? For me, it's probably Corbin Burnes ($10,600). His strikeouts are down, his homers allowed are up, and yet he's still averaging over 40 FDP. The matchup with San Diego isn't as scary as their reputation suggests either, as the Padres rank just 25th with a .289 wOBA, adding a .112 ISO and a 22.5 percent strikeout rate. Kevin Gausman ($9,100) is my second-favorite pricey arm given his likely low usage.
If Chris Archer can shut down the Tigers, surely Sonny Gray ($8,200) can. Detroit ranks second-to-last in the league with a .265 wOBA and paltry .098 ISO while striking out 24.3 percent of the time. Gray is striking out 10.9 per nine while inducing ground balls at slightly over 50 percent, further limiting damage opportunities. Less than 30 FDP would be very disappointing. Noah Syndergaard ($8,000) has a stable floor in the same range. Texas ranks 27th with a .279 wOBA while fanning 23.7 percent of the time. Thor is being more efficient and not seeking strikeouts, but he did get seven in his last outing. He put up 34 FDP against Texas earlier, and at least a repeat seems likely here.
There appear to be ample pay-down options as well on this large slate. Jordan Montgomery ($7,100) figures to be popular despite his current form (consecutive games under 20 FDP, including against Baltimore last time out). I am a noted Atlanta fan and watch nightly, and will continue to feel confident targeting pitchers against the team until it shows some patience at the dish. Kyle Gibson ($7,700) is tonight's option. He's not a big strikeout guy, and Atlanta hit him hard last season, but he still fanned eight in 4.1 innings the last time they met. We also can always target arms against Oakland's league-worst offense, with George Kirby ($7,000) being tonight's play. Finally, I don't hate Blake Snell ($6,000) and his strikeout potential as a GPP option on the cheap. He fanned five in 3.2 frames in his season debut, and if he can be more efficient, he'll work five-plus frames, lending rare upside at this low price.
Top Targets
There don't appear to be any true must-roster bats, and with some big names priced down, I'd expect the top tier to be largely ignored. But there's always ample appeal in Mike Trout ($4,500), and his .428 wOBA and .350 ISO have a matchup with Dane Dunning, who he's 3-for-8 with two homers against.
Similarly, Mookie Betts ($4,400) is white hot right now. He's scored in 11 straight games, posting at least 9.2 FDP in each of those outings.
Tigers' starter Beau Brieske has been hit much harder by righties, allowing a .406 wOBA that rises to .482 on the road, to go with a 1.148 OPS, and we'll have to lean on that when going in on Twin bats, as their splits against righties are heavily skewed toward opposite-handed bats. Still, Byron Buxton ($3,900) makes plenty of sense in this matchup.
Bargain Bats
How long do we wait on Toronto bats to do something? I'd never have imagined they'd be at stackable prices. Vladimir Guerrero ($3,500) and George Springer ($3,600) take aim at Jordan Hicks, who has struggled at home with a 6.02 FIP, 5.1 BB/9, just 7.3 K/9, 1.5 HR/9 and only a 17.1 soft contact rate.
Montgomery's recent hiccups are noted above, which could put Anthony Santander ($3,000) on radars. He leads Oriole regulars against lefties with a modest .354 wOBA and .208 ISO, and is 5-of-12 with a 1.250 OPS against Montgomery.
If we trust Brieske's splits above but don't want to go all in on the Twins, Carlos Correa ($3,400) remains slightly discounted, while Gary Sanchez ($3,100) has better splits, including a decent .250 ISO.
Stacks to Consider
Yankees vs. Orioles (Bruce Zimmermann): Aaron Judge ($4,400), Giancarlo Stanton ($3,800), DJ LeMahieu ($3,100)
This stack seems to come up weekly for me. We know the Yankees are mashing, and we know they tee off on lefties. They're facing Zimmermann for the fourth time this season, having already gotten him for nine runs and 18 hits across 14.1 previous innings. LeMahieu's recent struggles make this affordable, especially if you're off the top-priced arms. He conveniently leads the Yanks with a .465 wOBA and 217 wRC+ against lefties. Judge has a 50.0 percent hard hit rate against southpaws and only an 8.3 soft percent rate, while Stanton is making weak contact only 9.7 percent of the time. Sure, this is straight chalk, but it's difficult to argue avoiding this lineup completely.
Astros vs. Guardians (Zach Plesac): Yordan Alvarez ($3,800), Kyle Tucker ($3,700), Michael Brantley ($3,200)
Plesac has some odd splits, allowing a .354 wOBA to lefties but only .327 on the road, where he curiously has a 5.74 ERA and 4.95 FIP. I'm going to trust the Houston lineup with their plethora of lefties however, all of which have positive numbers in this spot. Tucker's 19.8 percent K rate is the highest of this trio, giving them ample chances with balls in play. Alvarez has a .449 wOBA, .208 OPS and .449 ISO against righties, Tucker sits at .379/157/.232 and Brantley .382/160/.172.
