This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A slightly smaller 11-game slate awaits Tuesday, with a traditional 7:05 p.m. EDT start. All DFS managers are faced with a paramount decision: to Jacob deGrom or not to deGrom. The Mets ace is priced as high as can be ($12,500), $3,300 more than any other arm, but he's also averaging 25.77 FDP more than any other pitcher throwing Tuesday, giving you a huge advantage if you can find some value bats. I'm going to omit him from the breakdown below, but despite the huge number, he's averaging nearly 5x return with a 43 FDP floor. That's all without considering the matchup, one that comes against a Cardinals lineup fanning 24.9 percent of the time with a sub .300 wOBA. There's also a whopping seven listed starters at time of submission that are priced $6,500 or less, which should allow for some targetable secondary bats, further making deGrom an appealing option.
Pitching
Aaron Nola, PHI vs. MIL ($9,200): Nola is the only arm that could match deGrom's upside, but he hasn't shown it often in 2021. He's got a brilliant 67 FDP outing against St. Louis, but has otherwise gone for 34 FDP or fewer in his other five outings. Milwaukee fans 26.8 percent of the time against righties, fifth highest in the league, and brings only a .149 ISO, seemingly creating a safe floor.
Nick Pivetta, BOS vs. DET ($8,300): I don't love paying this number for someone of Pivetta's talent, but it's hard to fade the form and matchup. He's allowed just one hit in each of his last two starts, and has allowed more than two runs just once. Mix in the Tigers' .275 wOBA and 77 wRC+, paired with a 29.0 percent strikeout rate, and a path to 4x value is very clear.
Eric Lauer, MIL at PHI ($6,800): If looking for a pay-down GPP wild card, Lauer merits consideration. The Phillies simply struggle with southpaws, owning a 93 wRC+ and .163 ISO against them while fanning at a 29.8 percent clip, third highest in the league. Lauer was, somewhat surprisingly, decent against the Dodgers in his first start, and if he can match Nola for five innings, there's a chance at 4-5x value.
Top Targets
Carlos Santana, KC vs. CLE ($3,900): I'm disappointed Santana is priced up, but his form certainly justifies it given his 11 hits in the last seven games. He's carrying a .427 wOBA and 182 wRC+ against lefties into Tuesday, while fanning a mere 3.0 percent in 33 plate appearances, which gives him four clear chances to scratch here.
Trent Grisham, SD vs. PIT ($3,800): Pirates' starter Mitch Keller is allowing a .407 wOBA and .960 ISO to lefties, and a .423 wOBA and 1.001 OPS to righties, so the Padres' bats are going to be chalky stack options. I'll take Grisham as my anchor and look elsewhere for lower usage, however. He brings a sound .381 wOBA against righties to the table, first amongst San Diego regulars.
Value Bats
Alex Verdugo, BOS vs. DET ($3,400): I'm expecting the Red Sox lineup to be a trendy stack candidate, and only high usage has me staying away. As such, I'll target a small buy-in on Verdugo, who will likely hit second in front of the team's big boppers. He brings a .413 wOBA, 170 wRC+ and only an 11.3 percent K rate against righties to the table in a favorable matchup against Detroit's Michael Fulmer.
Justin Upton, LAA vs. TB ($3,100): Upton brings a .477 wOBA, 219 wRC+ and .333 ISO against lefties into Tuesday. He'll have flame-throwing Shane McClanahan to deal with initially, and if he can catch up to one of the rookie's heaters, he'll give us a quick 18.7 FDP. While we're obviously hoping for a big fly, Upton has surprisingly scratched in every game since April 9, giving him a floor of greater than zero.
Austin Riley, ATL at WAS ($2,400): Riley isn't showing the power many have hoped for from him, which is keeping him priced at a bargain basement number, one I'm happy to exploit. He's locked in, taking walks and slapping balls the opposite way, bringing a seven-game hit streak into Tuesday with four hits in two of those outings and 14 overall. It's led to a .427 wOBA and 167 wRC+ against righties, and a matchup against Joe Ross certainly isn't one to shy away from.
Stacks to Consider
Blue Jays vs. Cole Irvin: Vladimir Guerrero ($4,000), Bo Bichette ($3,800), Randal Grichuk ($2,800)
Grichuk is a near automatic play against lefties, and that makes this top-heavy stack that much more affordable. He leads the team with a .542 wOBA against southpaws, adding a 261 wRC+ and .346 ISO. Guerrero isn't far behind at .527/251/.250, while Bichette checks in at a serviceable .388/154/.316. George Springer ($3,900) could be a nice lower-used option if you want to spend up from Bichette, or down from Guerrero.
Rays vs. Alex Cobb: Austin Meadows ($3,300), Brandon Lowe ($3,300), Joey Wendle ($3,200)
Strength versus strength here, as the Rays will bring as many lefties to the table as they can against the righty Cobb, whose splits are far more favorable against same-handed bats. Wendle leads the way with a .388 wOBA, 161 wRC+ and .246 ISO but has only three hits in his last nine games to suppress his salary. Meadows checks in at .352/136/.247 and Lowe .381/156/.239. We're looking for differentiation here -- I've alluded to some more obvious stacks above, and having now included at least some pieces from both those offenses in this column, it's fair to say I expect runs to come somewhat easily Tuesday.
