This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A full 15-game slate awaits Tuesday, and with only one pitcher priced in five figures, we should expect plenty of offense across the board.
Pitching Breakdown
Walker Buehler ($10,000) is that only high-priced pitcher. Save for a trip to Coors Field, Buehler has been worth at least 43 FDP in every start since the beginning of June, and he gets a slumping Phillies lineup that is down to 18th against righties with a .318 wOBA. On a volatile slate, there appears to be real stability in Buehler.
Lance Lynn ($9,800) against Arizona follows. Every time Lynn takes the bump, I'm a doubter in his success, and more times than not I'm wrong. He's been brilliant, having a 30 FDP floor dating back to May 4, a span of 12 starts. Arizona ranks 20th against righties offensively, so expecting Lynn's run of great starts to continue seem more than reasonable.
Brandon Woodruff ($9,600) is the only other 9k option, and looks overpriced when paired with his name recognition. He's been worth 34 or more FDP in five of his last six starts, but a matchup against Atlanta isn't usually one we'd target. The form suggests some GPP exposure, but there's little value in the moderate savings over the top two for cash lineups.
The 8k tier of arms brings us a few upside plays in Miami's Jordan Yamamoto ($8,700) and Boston's Andrew Cashner ($8,000). The Former gets a Padres side that fans 26.2 percent of the time, while carrying only a .308 wOBA. The latter faces a Blue Jays offense he just faced in his last start (July 6), earning 40 FDP while allowing just one run over seven innings. Making his Red Sox debut, Cashner carries a strong win probability as Boston is a sound (-182) favorite, although he was doing fine on that front anyway with nine wins in 17 starts for Baltimore. San Diego's Logan Allen ($8,200) may be popular against the Marlins' woeful offense (.280 wOBA), but he's thrown only five innings in his prior two July starts, and it's fair to question how stretched out he is.
Two trendy cheap options figure to be Dylan Cease ($6,700) and Austin Voth ($6,600). Cease may have limited strikeout potential against a Royals team that fans just 22.8 percent of the time, but there should be stability for the price given Kansas City's .309 wOBA and .165 ISO. Voth has not been good, lasting just 4.1 innings in each of his last two starts against lowly Detroit and Kansas City. That doesn't inspire confidence against Baltimore, even if the Nats are heavy favorites (-200).
Key Chalk/Value
It obviously all starts with Coors Field, where the Rockies will send Peter Lambert to face the Giants, who apparently are turning to Drew Pomeranz, though FanDuel doesn't list a starter at time of submission. Pomeranz actually struck out 11 in his last meeting with the Rockies, but we're absolutely ignoring that. A lefty against the Rockies at home is the most automatic fade out there. As many shares of Nolan Arenado ($4,600), Trevor Story ($4,700), Charlie Blackmon ($4,800), the surging Daniel Murphy ($4,100) and even Ian Desmond ($3,700) as possible are advised.
The Giants against Lambert present an interesting case. San Francisco stinks offensively, but Lambert is equally as bad on the bump, especially at home. Across 17.2 innings, he owns a 9.17 ERA and 9.15 FIP, allowing a .514 wOBA and 1.313 OPS to lefties, and .421 wOBA and 1.024 OPS to righties. Brandon Belt ($4,000) figures to be the trendy option, though Alex Dickerson ($3,900) and Austin Slater ($3,600) profile better, and Pablo Sandoval ($2,900) has shown resurgent power on the cheap.
Red Sox-Blue Jays has a solid 11-run total as a pivot from Coors Field, obviously more so on the Boston side. Toronto starter Jacob Waguespack ($6,400) allowed three runs and six hits in five innings to Boston in his last outing, and has been victimized more by righties in his brief MLB stint. That sets up a white hot Xander Bogaerts ($4,600) for another big night, while Michael Chavis ($3,300) gives GPP boom-or-bust potential at a discount.
A battle of vulnerable lefties in Houston is well worth attacking, with Andrew Heaney ($6,800) and Framber Valdez ($6,000) facing off. Heaney has allowed five runs in two of his past four starts, and the Astros have seven regulars with a wOBA of .372 or better. Jose Altuve ($4,100) leads the way with a .508 wOBA, 231 wRC+ and .411 ISO, but there's no wrong option in this lineup. The Angels are a bit more challenging to buy into with Mike Trout ($4,900) day-to-day, but Valdez has allowed 15 runs over his last 7.0 innings. There could be some GPP homer potential from Kole Calhoun ($3,600) and his .310 ISO, or perhaps Albert Pujols ($3,000, .235 ISO) is due a big fly.
Stacks
Twins vs. Steven Matz (Mets)
Mitch Garver (C - $3,400), Nelson Cruz (OF - $3,800), Miguel Sano (1B - $3,500)
The league's second-best offense against lefties is facing a struggling arm with a 7.07 road ERA and 7.52 FIP, and even better, the Twins feature no bats north of 4k, making this stack incredibly attractive. The strikeout rates of these three are scary, especially Sano's at 39.6 percent, but that almost makes his .387 wOBA, 142 wRC+, and .367 ISO more impressive given the limited number of balls he puts in play. Garver has a whopping .489 wOBA, 212 wRC+ and .380 ISO, while Cruz goes .393/147/.333. Luis Arraez ($3,000) and Marwin Gonzalez ($2,900) also profile well and come cheaply.
Nationals vs. Asher Wojciechowski (Orioles)
Anthony Rendon (3B - $4,300), Juan Soto (OF - $4,200), Trea Turner (SS - $3,800)
Wojciechowski has thrown only 10.1 innings this season, so while we won't put a lot of stock in his LvR splits, we can feel confident attacking him, as he's allowed seven runs. Turner is actually in a bit of a slump, and has just a .338 wOBA against righties, which is surprisingly still fourth among Nats regulars. It's forced his price down to the point where I don't want to pass on him, though. Rendon and Soto may come at the expense of passing on Rockies bats, which is tough, but the ball jumps out of Camden Yards too, and Rendon offers a .402 wOBA, 148 wRC+ and .291 ISO, while Soto goes .398/145/.226.
Brewers vs. Bryse Wilson (Braves)
Mike Moustakas (3B - $3,900), Yasmani Grandal (C - $3,200), Eric Thames (1B - $2,800)
Yes, Christian Yelich ($4,900) is a very fine option, but the price is huge, so I'm looking to target some different left-handers behind him in what could be a plus matchup. I can't put much stock in Wilson's splits (similar to Wojciechowski above), but he is allowing a 9.39 ERA across 7.2 road innings, and a whopping .504 wOBA and 1.250 OPS in 20 plate appearances against lefties. Thames looks great given the price, ranking second on the team with a .375 wOBA and .262 ISO against opposite-handed arms. Grandal has a .368 wOBA and .255 ISO in this spot, while Moustakas goes .361/.279.
