This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Tuesday's 10-game slate goes off at 7:05. The schedule is starting to normalize, so we should see more full evening contests than not moving forward. There's no shortage of top-name pitching Monday, so we're faced with the question of paying up for an ace, or punting pitching in favor of more stable hitters in prime spots.
Pitching
The day starts with Max Scherzer ($11,700) welcoming Bryce Harper ($4,500) back to D.C. There's rarely a bad time to start Scherzer, who fanned 30 across 18.1 innings last year against the Phillies, and was the tough-luck loser Opening Day. The Phillies scored 13 runs in their three-game opening series with Atlanta, but this is a big step up in pitching for them. Scherzer comes with the floor and ceiling you'd expect when paying this price.
Just behind Scherzer is Justin Verlander ($11,300). He's faced the Rangers nine times over the last three years, striking out 72 in 57.0 innings, going 3-1 in that stretch at Globe Life Park in Arlington. There's little to suggest he won't fare similarly here.
Chris Sale ($10,800) will look to rebound from an awful Opening Day, and that start has him priced as moderately as we may see if he does in fact bounce back. Oakland had a .178 ISO and .322 wOBA against lefties last year, but in a limited sample size (107 PA), they've bolstered that to .245/.342. While he may have lower ownership here given the other options, we may want to wait on Sale until we see his normal form.
Jose Berrios ($9,700) is going to be a chalky pivot for those looking to save cap space. He posted 63 FDP on Opening Day and faces the lowly Royals, who have just a .281 wOBA and .103 ISO against righties. They don't strike out much (15.8 percent) but Berrios dominated Kansas City last year, going 4-0 with 28 strikeouts over 26.0 innings, allowing only six runs.
Four games Monday have a projected total of only seven runs, and all are worth looking into if you're bargain hunting. Those include Colorado (Kyle Freeland, $9,500) at Tampa Bay (Blake Snell, $10,000), San Francisco (Madison Bumgarner, $9,100) at Los Angeles (Hyun-Jin Ryu, $9,200), Boston (Sale) at Oakland (Mike Fiers, $7,200) and Arizona (Zack Greinke, $8,800) at San Diego (Eric Lauer, $7,000). Any of Freeland, Snell, Bumgarner and Ryu make sense to me. Lauer could also make for an off the radar GPP target, as Arizona has struck out 26.6 percent of the time against lefties thus far.
Finally, Marcus Stroman ($7,400) is worth mentioning. He's come up $500 since his dominant Opening Day showing, when he fanned seven across seven frames. He's had a sub-20 percent fan rate in each of the last five years, but now that he's fully healthy, he looks poised for a rebound year. Baltimore is already striking out 30.2 percent against righties, posting just a .290 wOBA and .117 ISO.
Key Values/Chalk
The Astros' matchup with Shelby Miller ($5,500) looks too enticing to ignore, but their bats are top heavy, so a stack may not be in order. George Springer ($4,300), Alex Bregman ($4,200) and Jose Altuve ($4,300) are great anchors. I know Carlos Correa ($3,000) hasn't shown his normal self since last year's injury, but that price is very enticing, and he's coming off a 3-of-4 showing Monday. Miller has allowed 29 runs over his last 38.0 innings. Having some share of the 'Stros tonight is prudent, as even with Verlander on the mound, the game has the docket's highest total (9).
The opposite side of this spectrum, targeting a few Blue Jays bats against Baltimore's Andrew Cashner ($5,600), would makes sense except that the Jays couldn't be colder. Justin Smoak ($3,600) is the usual safe route with his .349 wOBA and .216 ISO from a year ago. Rowdy Tellez ($2,700) is a reasonable power gamble. He had a .392 wOBA and .300 ISO in limited action last year against righties, and is hot in the early going.
Per usual, J.D. Martinez ($5,000), Mike Trout ($4,900) and Mookie Betts ($4,900) lead the way price wise, but they are followed by Trea Turner ($4,800) who looks like an outlier due to his lack of power, even after going yard twice Sunday. That said, I'm all in on Turner as a pivot. The Nats have made good so far on allowing him to steal at will, and he swiped four bases in a three-game opening series. The Braves also stole successfully three times against J.T. Realmuto ($3,700). I expect Turner will get things moving in an effort to get Scherzer some early run support.
While I likely wouldn't go too crazy against Sale, it's possible he needs some more time to round into form. Matt Chapman ($3,900) is hot, and posted a .352 wOBA against lefties last year. Mark Canha ($2,200) isn't playing regularly, but would make for a dart throw if in the lineup after leading the A's with a .390 wOBA and .322 ISO against southpaws in 2018, though those numbers aren't in line with his career marks.
Stacks
New York Mets vs. Jose Urena ($6,300): Pete Alonso ($3,300), Michael Conforto ($3,200), Wilson Ramos ($2,700), Amed Rosario ($2,300). The build here is around Alonso, who is scotching hot out of the gates, hitting safely in four straight and going 7-of-17 overall. Sticking with the hot hand, Conforto has two hits in each of his last three games, and BvP touts will enjoy his 9-of-17 history against Urena. Ramos comes in swinging well with an early .452 wOBA. Rosario moved into the leadoff spot Monday, and if he remains there is attractive in front of Alonso. This likely isn't a traditional 1-2-3 lineup stack, but the savings are there in a plus matchup.
Seattle Mariners vs. Trevor Cahill ($6,700): Mallex Smith ($3,400), Mitch Haniger ($4,100), Domingo Santana ($4,100). A more traditional 'top three in the order' stack, it's impossible to ignore how well the Mariners are swinging it right now. Seattle is averaging 7.7 runs through seven games, while Cahill allowed four across six innings in his debut. Smith has hit and scored in every game this season and has the green light to run, stealing twice already. Haniger and Santana have combined for 19 hits and only four single-point scoring days thus far. BvP believers can also look into Dee Gordon ($2,800), but he's less attractive in the nine hole with Smith atop the order.
San Diego Padres vs. Greinke: Ian Kinsler ($3,300), Wil Myers ($3,700), Eric Hosmer ($2,800). I'm burying this at the end, as it's a pure GPP contrarian option, although by suggesting Lauer earlier, I am apparently all in on Greinke not bouncing back. The veteran righty's dominated the Padres in the past, which is going to lead most to overlook San Diego bats. His location was terrible Opening Day, though, and his velocity isn't quite the same either. Hosmer and Myers are off to fine starts, and while I don't love Kinsler's price, he should slot in atop the order. There's absolutely a chance this group goes 0-for, but there's also upside and absolute certainty on low ownership.
