FanDuel MLB: Sunday Value Plays

FanDuel MLB: Sunday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.

Runs look to be plentiful Sunday afternoon, as the nine-game slate features lots of spot starters, and only one listed total under nine with two off the board at the time of submission. Finding the right arm appears paramount for success, though a top option may not be needed with bats aparently capable of carrying your lineup.

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PITCHER

Dylan Bundy, BAL vs. MIA ($9,200): Despite being a heavy Vegas favorite, this appears to be a steep price to pay when Bundy is backed by his woeful offense. But he may not need a win to return high upside given his recent strikeout run. Bundy has fanned 47 in his last six starts, turning in five quality starts while not allowing a run in his last two outings, spanning 15 innings Miami counters with the league's worst offense against righties, sporting a putrid .286 wOBA, adding an 80 wRC+ and .120 ISO. The 23.6 percent whiff rate isn't great, but it'll do in this spot.

GPP Fade: Julio Teheran, ATL vs. SDP ($6,900): San Diego wraps up a 10-game road trip Sunday, and it's easy to take that, their .287 wOBA and 25.5 percent strikeout rate against righties and expect Teheran to provide a stable enough return at this sub-7k price. But Teheran still hasn't figured out his home park, owning a 4.91 ERA after posting a 5.86 ERA a year ago at Suntrust. Teheran has only two quality starts in his last five outings, and while I think there is a decent shot at a win here, this just looks like a spot to avoid potential high ownership in a favorable paper matchup for an arm that has more combustibility than he does upside.

Cheap GPP Consideration: C.C. Sabathia, NYY at TAM ($6,600): For $300 less, you can roll with Sabathia over Teheran, seemingly have equal or greater chances at earning a win while still carrying some run risk and similar moderate strikeout potential. Sabathia has just one quality start in his last five outings, but has earned two wins and 18 or more points in four of those outings, twice topping 30 points. That's the kind floor you can accept at this price, while also bringing the potential for more in tournament formats. The savings against Teheran can mean the difference between a bat like Manny Machado instead of Christan Yelich, both quality offerings but one with much greater power potential. And none of that rationale factors in Tampa's .307 wOBA, 96 wRC+ and .148 ISO against lefties.

Detroit's Blaine Hardy ($6,100) merits consideration for those looking deep down the list.

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

Francisco Cervelli, PIT vs. CIN ($3,000): Going with a catcher here always offers a contrarian play, and can provide value at the same time. That's what Cervelli looks like in advance of Sunday, as he's absolutely crushing righties to date, posting a .407 wOBA, 161 wRC+ and .262 ISO. While those numbers are well north of his career averages, his matchup against Anthony DeSclafani is enticing. DeSclafani has a 1.90 WHIP since returning to action, making all Pirates viable options, and he's allowing righties to post a .429 wOBA against him.

SECOND BASE

Daniel Murphy, WAS at TOR ($3,400): Murphy is overpriced given his slow start since returning from injury, which will lead to incredibly low ownership in a favorable spot against Sam Gaviglio, who is allowing a .340 wOBA to lefties as opposed to a .272 to righties. It's likely a matter of when, not if, Murphy gets his timing and rhythm going after putting up a .396 wOBA, 143 wRC+ and .231 ISO against opposite handed arms a year ago.

THIRD BASE

Alex Bregman, HOU at KAN ($4,100): The hot corner looks like a hot mess Sunday, with there being a $1,400 price disparity between the top option (Jose Ramirez) and the third option (Eugenio Suarez). That suggests you punt or play, and if you're playing, Bregman brings a white hot bat to the table. He's gone for at least 12.7 fantasy points in nine of his last 12 games, five times topping 20 while ranking second among 'Stro regulars with a .363 wOBA.

SHORTSTOP

Tim Anderson, CWS vs. DET ($3,000): Short looks an awful lot like third on this slate, and while the price doesn't drop off immediately from the top, Fransisco Lindor is only five players removed from Jose Peraza, again forcing a play or punt type situation. Anderson is largely feast or famine, but he's also largely feasted on lefties compared to righties, owning a .350 wOBA, 124 wRC+ and .222 ISO against southpaws compared to .300/90/.176 against right-handers.

OUTFIELD

Eddie Rosario, MIN at CLE ($3,700):Shane Bieber is being recalled to start Sunday's tilt, and that should bode well for Twin bats after Bieber looked overmatched in his first taste in the bigs, allowing five four runs over six innings, including two homers to lefties. Rosario has faired very well against opposite handed arms to date, boasting a .403 wOBA, 158 wRC+ and .269 ISO. This matchup almost seems too good to be true.

Starling Marte, PIT vs. CIN ($3,600): The Pirates don't hit righties at a huge clip, but the 1.90 WHIP we mentioned on Reds' starter Anthony DeSclafani is worth targeting, even if it's over a very limited sample size (10.0 innings) as he's still feeling his way back after missing nearly all of 2017. Marte's .352 wOBA against righties trails only the aforementioned Cervelli amongst Pirate regulars.

Josh Reddick, HOU at KAN ($2,800): Reddick appears to finally be finding a groove, having hit safely in five straight, three times collecting multiple knocks while going for at least 9.2 fantasy points without the luxury of an extra-base hit. Rookie Brad Keller's early success is unlikely sustainable, and Reddick is a well known abuser of righties. If you can't afford the likes of Jose Altuve or the previously noted Alex Bregman, Reddick offers a cheaper buy in to a game with a high 9.5 total, which you expect that scoring burden to largely fall on the shoulders of the Astros bats.

UTILITY

Carlos Santana, PHI at MIL ($3,400): I love the heater that Rhys Hoskins is on since returning from injury, but his price has climbed higher than I'm comfortable with, making Santana a decent consolation prize Sunday. Milwaukee starter Chase Anderson has a 5.06 home ERA, where he's allowing a .381 wOBA to lefties. Santana has faired much better from that side of the dish, earning a .347 wOBA while bringing great tournament power potential with a .232 ISO.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Chris Bennett plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: k30kittles, DraftKings: k30kittles.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Chris Bennett
Bennett covers baseball, college football and college basketball for RotoWire. Before turning to fantasy writing, he worked in scouting/player development for the Atlanta Braves and Montreal Expos. He's also a fan of the ACC.
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