This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Looking over the Sunday landscape, I am not seeing an encouraging day for pitchers. You could flip that around and say that's promising for hitters, although both are realistically required for a DFS lineup. We have 15 games on the slate, which means every team is in action. Also, as is usually the case with a Sunday, you need your lineup in early. First pitch of the day is at 1:05 p.m. ET.
PITCHING
Yu Darvish, SD vs. SEA ($12,000): This is the one profoundly obvious choice today. Darvish has an 1.81 ERA with his new team and hasn't allowed more than two runs since the season opener. Meanwhile, Seattle enters with the lowest team OPS in the majors. Oh, and this game is at Petco Park.
Max Fried, ATL vs. PIT ($8,500): After going with talent (and matchup) in Darvish, this is all about matchup here. Don't discount Fried just because he has a 5.46 ERA because he's posted a 1.59 ERA over his last three starts and his FIP on the season is 4.21. The real important thing here is that it seems like the Pirates are destined to finish last in runs scored for the second season in a row. Only the Mets are below them right now, and they've played six fewer games.
Casey Mize, DET at KC ($7,600): As a Tigers fan, it's hard not to feel a little impatient regarding Mize. I have to resist the urge to yell to nobody in particular "Why isn't he Justin Verlander yet?". That being said, he's managed a 2.45 ERA from his last four starts and his road ERA this year is 2.84. The Royals rank in the bottom-10 in runs scored, so I'm expecting a low-scoring matchup.
Sean Manaea, OAK at LAA ($6,800): Manaea comes in with a 4.41 ERA, but with a 3.59 FIP. He's already faced Houston three times and Boston once and those happen to be the MLB's two highest-scoring teams. Across Manaea's other five starts, he's produced a 2.37 ERA. The Angels may be in the middle of the pack in runs scored, but Mike Trout is missing right now and that changes everything.
TOP TARGETS
Trevor Story, COL vs. ARI ($4,000): Story may not be long for the Rockies, so hopefully he enjoys regularly hitting at Coors Field while he can. Since 2019, he's recorded a .986 home OPS at home and that's being tempered a bit due to a slow start to the season. In his last two full campaigns, Story has posted over 30 homers and 20 stolen bases. Taylor Widener is returning from the IL for this game. While he has a 2.48 ERA across his first four career starts, he's never pitched at Coors before. I'm not worried for Story.
Trey Mancini, BAL at WAS ($4,000): It's nice to see Mancini back on the field. When he last played in 2019, he produced an .899 OPS with 35 homers. This year, he's looked solid with a .520 slugging percentage and 10 home runs. You may be hesitant to go in too heavily against Patrick Corbin, presuming his 6.10 ERA won't hold up. After all, he has managed a 3.34 ERA over his last six starts. Nevertheless, Corbin's greatest strength is shutting down southpaws such as himself. Mancini is right handed and Corbin has given up a .263 average to righties since 2019.
VALUE BATS
Matt Olson, OAK at LAA ($3,200): Dylan Bundy has posted a 6.02 ERA through eight starts. While his 4.09 FIP is certainly better, it's still not good. And the former Oriole has allowed 13 runs over his last 7.1 innings. Olson is never going to win a batting title – even by today's standards – but he does have power carrying a career .502 slugging percentage with 11 homers through 41 games.
Yoan Moncada, CWS at NYY ($3,200): Moncada is rebounding from a rough 2020, though his power still hasn't quite returned. That being said, he slugged .548 in his last full season. Jameson Taillon may help Moncada improve those power numbers having given up 2.15 homers per nine innings in his first year with the Yankees. I also wanted somebody that could potentially bat lefty from the White Sox, as Taillon has allowed that side to hit .294 against him this season.
STACKS TO CONSIDER
Astros vs. Mike Foltynewicz: Alex Bregman ($3,500), Yordan Alvarez ($3,300), Carlos Correa ($3,100)
Folty's attempts to resurrect his career after being jettisoned by Atlanta has not worked out. In nine starts with Texas, he's struggled to a 5.36 FIP while allowing 2.03 home runs per nine innings. Houston can definitely take advantage of a pitcher who struggles with allowing homers, especially as the weather warms up down in Texas. Bregman is still trying to get his power back to where it was when he hit 41 homers in 2019, but he's averaged .318. Alvarez is all about power, as he's slugged a staggering .623 over his career. Correa has kind of fallen by the wayside, which is why I wanted to highlight him. He's seeing an uptick in power from last year with six home runs through 44 appearances.
Cardinals vs. Zach Davies: Nolan Arenado ($4,200), Paul Goldschmidt ($3,400), Tommy Edman ($3,000)
Davies was brought over in the Yu Darvish trade, but he hasn't exactly filled that void with a 5.58 ERA - including an 8.59 mark on the road. Sure, that's only over 14.2 innings, but that's still alarming. What's also disappointing is him striking out a career-low 5.13 batters per nine innings. In the era of the K, that just doesn't cut it. Arenado has posted a .291 average and has hit 10 homers. If you were worried about him away from Coors, he has an .875 OPS at home in 2021. Goldschmidt has started a bit slowly, but he's slashed .292/.389/.518 across his career. He knows how to put the bat on the ball and how to get on base, so I am not worried. Edman lacks power, but that may not be a concern as one thing Davies hasn't done much this year is allow homers. Edman's also averaged .278 and has stolen eight bases.
