This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A small six-game slate awaits Saturday's main contest, going off at 7:05 p.m. EDT. The smaller player pool results in limited top pitching choices, putting some pressure on GPP and cash players to make a sound selection on the bump.
Pitching
Lance Lynn, TEX vs. LOS ($9,500): Form versus matchup here. Lynn has a 33 FanDuel point (FDP) floor thus far, five times topping 40 FDP. But he's facing an offense we never feel comfortable going against, as the Dodgers have a league-high .364 wOBA and 133 wRC+ against righties. The common thinking will be to heavily pass for cash, while hoping for low usage in GPPs, but it's hard to see 4x value here.
Dylan Bundy, LAA vs. SEA ($9,100): Bundy figures to be heavily targeted against a Mariners lineup he's dominated twice already, fanning 18 across 15 innings, allowing just four earned runs. The Mariners fan just 23.1 percent of the time, and Bundy has looked human over his last two starts (six runs, 11 hits, 9 Ks in 9.2 innings) but given the limited options, I don't see Bundy being faded frequently.
Luke Weaver, ARI vs. SFG ($7,100): Weaver could be rounding into form, having allowed three runs over his last 10.2 innings. The Giants fan only 22.1 percent of the time against righties, but carry only a 96 wRC+ into Saturday. Weaver's 26 FDP outing against San Fran last time out isn't ideal value, but a hopeful 3x return is certainly in play.
Antonio Senzatela, COL vs. SDP ($6,500): Obviously, any arm pitching at Coors can blow up in your face. But Senzatela has a 43 FDP outing under his belt in this same setting against the Padres earlier this year. Four times in six starts Senzatela has allowed two earned runs or less, and while only one of those was at home, he's got upside given the price; albeit with great combustibility.
JT Brubaker, PIT vs. MIL ($5,700): With so many usable bat options, if you want to pay down on the bump, Brubaker could return some value. The Brewers are just bad offensively, fanning 27.6 percent of the time while posting a meager 66 wRC+. He fanned six Brewers in his last start in route to 24 FDP, and while he hasn't made it more than four innings in any appearance, a repeat performance would still represent 4.2x value.
Top Targets
Manny Machado, SDP at COL ($4,200): Machado is too hot to omit from this column. He's gone for at least 18.7 FDP in nine straight, collecting 20 hits, six homers and 13 RBI in that stretch. He's 3-for-4 against Senzatela in his career, and gets the Coors Field factor as well.
Trevor Story, COL vs. SDP ($4,500): The Rockies current top two producers against lefties are also left handed, which usually isn't sustainable. I don't love placing Story here two nights in a row, but the .489 wOBA, 198 wRC+ and .400 ISO speak for themselves.
Mike Trout, LAA vs. SEA ($4,500): I touched on Trout's unluckiness versus lefties in Friday's column, noting a .200 BABIP but a 47.1 hard hit rate. He responded and rewarded me with his first homer since August 17 last night. Trout isn't a lefty masher, but his .408 wOBA, 161 wRC+ and .294 ISO from last year suggest he's due some progression this year. Mariners' starter Justus Sheffield hasn't allowed a long ball all year, something else that isn't sustainable, and his 4.05 xFIP against righties suggests he's due some regression as well.
Value Bats
Nick Solak, TEX vs. LOS ($2,700): Not much has gone right for the Ranger's offense this season, as the entire team routinely struggles to make contact. While Solak's .355 wOBA against righties isn't brilliant, he's fanning at a modest 14.6 percent rate, suggesting he'll get the ball in play in a targetable matchup against Ross Stripling, who is allowing a .473 wOBA to righties, and a 5.55 xFIP on the road.
Erik Gonzalez, PIT vs. MIL ($2,300): There's no way I'm suggesting a Pirates stack Saturday, but there are plenty of bargain options in this usually limited lineup, as four healthy starters boast wOBA's north of .400 against lefties. Gonzalez goes .417, adding a 166 wRC+ and a team-high .300 ISO, possibly giving him the most upside. Bryan Reynolds ($2,700), Kevin Newman ($2,400) and Jacob Stallings ($2,200) are the others to consider, but don't use heavily as the Pirates aren't a good offensive team, and Brewers starter Brett Anderson usually does a nice job limiting damage. But spending freely elsewhere, and throwing one of these guys in to round out hopefully doesn't yield zeros.
Stacks to Consider
Nationals vs. Chris Mazza: Juan Soto ($4,700), Trea Turner ($3,900), Adam Eaton ($2,800)
Soto absolutely belongs in the top targets section above. He's bringing a .525 wOBA, 234 wRC+, .391 ISO and 61 percent hard hit rate into Saturday. Turner has warmed up nicely, going for at least nine FDP in all but one game since August 9, going for double-digits 13 times in that 18-game stretch. Eaton helps balance finances, and his .358 wOBA and space in the lineup bring appeal in a juicy matchup with Mazza, who simply isn't a capable big league arm, having allowed 14 runs in 22.0 career innings.
Red Sox vs. Anibal Sanchez: Mitch Moreland ($3,900), Rafael Devers ($3,400), Alex Verdugo ($3,000)
We're going with a full-game stack here, and targeting lefties against Sanchez makes too much sense; he's allowing a 6.81 xFIP, .443 wOBA and 2.45 HR/9 to them this year. Moreland is crushing righties this season to the tune of a .522 wOBA, 234 wRC+ and .509 ISO. Devers hasn't really gotten going but brings a 47.1 hard hit rate to the table, while Verdugo gives a third left-handed bat, hits atop the order, and his .390 wOBA, .286 ISO and 144 wRC+ are more than serviceable. This game has a run total of 11.5, easily showing why we want to target both sides.
