This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A loaded 13-game slate awaits MLB's full return to the second half. We're getting more clarity by the hour on teams' rotational plans, and as of submission, only the Pirates, Nationals and Rangers not having listed starters within FanDuel. There is some ambiguity elsewhere, as FD has starters that aren't immediately confirmable, so be flexible and ready to adjust as your Friday wears on.
We've got an impressive three arms priced at $11,000 or greater, and nothing below $7,200, so spending in some capacity for an arm will be required.
Pitching
Max Scherzer ($11,500) headlines, and a potential pitcher duel looms with Yu Darvish ($10,200) his adversary. But my preferred pay option Friday is Shohei Ohtani ($11,000). He's allowed one run across his last five starts combined, spanning 32.2 innings, striking out 52 hitters. Pair that with a matchup against an Atlanta lineup that whiffs 25.0 percent of the time, and there's 60+ FDP potential, which can be slate-breaking. It seems worth mentioning that I'm not considering Kevin Gausman ($10,100), but he's faced the Red Sox three times this season, allowing one run while striking out 27 in 21.0 innings.
You can probably argue Charlie Morton ($9,800) has the upside to far outperform this price, as the Angels strike out 27.3 percent of the time and are without Mike Trout. As a loyal Atlanta fan, I watch Morton miss targets two or three times a night by close to a foot, and he's paid for it, as his homer run rate has nearly doubled from last season. He's gone for 42 FDP or more in four of six, but just 44 FDP total in the other two starts, so we know the risks.
With Texas (against Oakland) having not named a starter, and Detroit not on the slate, we're stuck searching for unfamiliar pay down matchup options. Zac Gallen ($8,100) looks like one favorite. He's slumped of late, allowing 15 runs in his last four starts, spanning 22.2 innings. But he's turned in six quality starts in his lsat nine outings, and should be a lock to limit damage against Washington. Kyle Gibson ($7,700) merits consideration as well. Chicago won their final game entering the break, but had lost nine games prior. Gibson has consecutive 40 FDP outings, allowing just one run in 13 innings while striking out 10. Facing a lineup with a 23.3 percent K rate and a below-average 98 wRC+, there's potential in this low price.
Keep an eye on what the Pirates do here. Miami hasn't scored in 34 straight innings, remain without Jazz Chisholm and are one of the freest swinging teams in the league regardless of pitcher handedness. There could be some value there.
Top Targets
The feasibility of playing a top bat, let alone multiple, is incredibly difficult given how expensive the high-priced arms are. Making matters worse, 18 bats are priced at at least $4,000, though some of those are hurt and not playing. Still, is anyone a must use?
Jose Altuve ($4,000) has upside splits and a stable floor based on BvP. He's 10-for-33 with a homer and fair .833 OPS against Marco Gonzales, while his .449 wOBA, 202 wRC+ and .389 ISO against lefties remains obscene.
Juan Soto ($4,000) went into the break on an absolute tear, with double-digit FDP in nine of 10, and has an elite .420 wOBA, 172 wRC+ and .286 ISO against righties. He can succeed while Gallen above does too.
Bargain Bats
Marcus Semien ($3,200) seems likely to be ignored Friday. The Rangers have some bargains with plus splits against lefties, but Semien isn't one of them over the course of the year. But he went into the break hot, with multiple hits in four of seven, producing 15.2 FDP or better in five of those, and is 4-for-10 with a homer and 1.255 OPS against A's starter Cole Irvin. Pairing with Jonah Heim ($2,600) and/or Leody Taveras ($2,900) can really open up your budget.
I have no idea what to make of Justin Steele's splits, as his K rate on the road is huge, it's minute at home, his ERA is elevated on the road but the xFIP doesn't back it up. I want to stack Phillies against the lefty, but neither side says sustained success is likely. But Philadelphia bats are priced low enough we need to consider at least one of Rhys Hoskins ($3,100) or Alec Bohm ($2,700). Hoskins sports a .418 wOBA, 170 wRC+ and .304 ISO, while Bohm goes .381/146/.222.
In an incredibly deep dive, and strict power reach only, consider either Brandon Marsh ($2,200) or Jared Walsh ($2,400). Ten of the 15 homers Morton has allowed have come to lefties, something the Angles don't have much of outside of the unavailable Ohtani. Marsh homered in consecutive games prior to the break.
Stacks to Consider
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox (Nathan Eovaldi): Vladimir Guerrero ($3,600), Alejandro Kirk ($2,900), Lourdes Gurriel ($2,600)
There's obviously divisional experience in this matchup, where Eovaldi has been up and down. He allowed seven runs and 11 hits in 11 innings against Toronto last year, and while only three in 11.2 innings this season, they've all come via solo homers, so there's 20-point potential throughout this lineup. And if we're chasing power, Gurriel is the starter, with two bombs in 16 ABs against Eovaldi, going 5-for-15 (.313). Guerrero has the same success rate without the power, but we know the immense potential that exists in this decreased price. Kirk continues to provide stability on the cheap, carrying a .400 wOBA and 161 wRC+ against righties to date, with three hits in six tries against Eovaldi.
White Sox vs. Guardians (Cal Quantrill): Jose Abreu ($3,500), Andrew Vaughn ($3,200), Tim Anderson ($3,200)
The White Sox have gotten to Quantrill in sort of a death by 1000 cuts method, earning eight runs in 12.1 innings thanks to 17 hits, and we're going to need that for this to help us cash, as the entire lineup has only two hits across 97 ABs, carrying a .740 OPS. We're going to target the top portion of this lineup, and by omitting a potentially injured Luis Robert ($4,200), there can be ample value/minimal risk. Anderson's 105 wRC+ against righties is the worst of this trio, but his 4-for-15 (.357) history is the best. Vaughn's 128 wRC+ is clearly increasing, and we're topping out with Abreu at 140. It's not the cleanest stack, and the power isn't huge either. But on a slate where I firmly believe we have to pay for arms, it's not going to be easy to get huge impact bats. A few knocks and a few runs here can hopefully return a collective 2x or better.
