This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Friday's main slate is again limited by a plethora of day games. We've got six games to choose from, with games going off between 7:07 and 9:40 p.m. EDT. Projected run totals range from eight to 9.5, so there's not a ton of disparity, but with a couple of heavy favorites, we can build around stable arms and offenses expected to safely produce. A good chunk of the top arms Friday are facing teams for the second time in a week. Will they still carry the advantage they had in the first meeting?
Pitching
Zack Wheeler, PHI at ATL ($10,500): Wheeler was dominant last time out against Atlanta, fanning 10 across seven one-hit innings. He was solid last year against them as well, allowing three runs across 12.2 frames, fanning 11. But the Braves' bats came to life during the week in Washington, and usually play better at home. I don't know if I trust paying up for Wheeler as the slate's most expensive arm, but that can lead to being a lower-used GPP target.
Joe Musgrove, SDP at TEX ($9,700): This looks like the obvious option to still pay up for pitching, but get a discount to Wheeler. Musgrove was fantastic in his Padre debut, fanning eight over 6.0 innings. Texas has hit righties well in the early going (.402 wOBA), but is fanning 26.7 percent of the time. Mix in the Padres as (-185) favorites, and there seems to be a stable floor at worst. He's also the only rm of the top four not facing a repeat opponent.
Zach Plesac, CLE vs. DET ($8,600): This appears to be another obvious pay down while paying up spot. Plesac wasn't great in his debut against Detroit, but he had a 66 FDP outing against the Tigers last year thanks to 11 Ks across 7.2 shutout innings. Cleveland is a sound (-190) favorite, suggesting his 28 FDP from his last showing is the floor.
Charlie Morton, ATL vs. PHI ($7,500): The slate doesn't present well for paying down on the bump. As such, Morton may be as low as I'm willing to go. He was victimized by some soft contact bloops in Philly last week (61.5 percent ground ball rate, 14.3 percent hard hit rate), and the Phillies are whiffing at an alarming 34.1 percent rate. Morton presents with a stable floor, albeit with a low ceiling.
Top Targets
Alex Bregman, HOU vs. OAK ($4,300): Bregman's .401 wOBA against lefties last year was an all-time low since his rookie season. He's off to an obscene .750 wOBA, 387 wRC+ and .667 ISO to start the year. Safe to say he hits lefties well. He's 6-of-23 against Sean Manaea in his career, not great, but three of those hits have left the yard.
Freddie Freeman, ATL vs. PHI ($3,600): Ronald Acuna ($4,100) is hot and has had success against Wheeler (6-19, two HR), but not as much as Freeman, who is 17-of-35 with two homers and 13 walks against Wheeler. We don't love BvP for DFS, but that's a substantial sample size, and Freeman's cold start has him priced as low as we can expect throughout the year, almost making him a free square. Truth be told, the top-priced bats Friday present too obviously where I don't want to lock in to anyone outside of Bregman. I feel this slate is begging for top priced pitching, enjoying top bats like Freeman at this number more-so than the 4k options, and building a balanced, contact-heavy offense.
Value Bats
Shohei Ohtani, LAA at TOR ($3,500): It's a small sample size, but T.J. Zeuch struggled against left-handed bats, allowing a career .365 wOBA, a number that's been north of .400 last season and to start this year. He also doesn't miss many bats (14.9 percent K rate), which give Ohtani four chances to put the ball in play out of the two-hole. He's off to a great start, owning a .443 wOBA and .375 ISO across 21 plate appearances.
Nick Senzel, CIN at ARI ($2,800): I expect the red-hot Reds to be a popular stack Friday, and they are priced so favorably you could grab your max options in a pseudo hitter-friendly park. That's a fine cash play, but for GPPs, getting a likely leadoff hitter at a secondary position (keystone, despite multi-eligibility), is hard to pass up. Senzel owns a .503 wOBA across 18 plate appearances and isn't priced up, as this number doesn't come with any risk. Jonathan India ($3,000) is almost equally appealing.
Stacks to Consider
Indians vs. Julio Teheran: Jose Ramirez ($4,100), Eddie Rosario ($3,200), Franmil Reyes ($2,800)
The huge pricing disparity makes this an affordable trio. Teheran allowed a .446 wOBA to lefties and a .391 wOBA to righties last season, and doesn't miss bats, fanning 5.74 per nine in 2020 and 5.70 in his first start. This stack gives us a likely 3-4-5 spot where we're clearly looking for GPP power upside. Reyes is the most volatile, and a 3-for-9 number doesn't support BvP, but two of those three hits are long balls.
Padres vs. Kohei Arihara: Eric Hosmer ($3,700), Manny Machado ($3,500) Wil Myers ($3,300)
Arihara's debut didn't prove he's capable of successfully pitching stateside, fanning just one across five innings while allowing three runs and a 47.1 percent fly ball rate. We'll trust Hosmer here in an LvR spot despite his feast or famine nature. The rest of this stack is very flexible. It's hard to pass on Machado, who is priced down due to a slow start, or Myers, as both have run producing upside. But if you're cash strapped, this stack is likely hitting 2-3-5. A pivot to Jake Croneworth ($3,400) and Tommy Pham ($3,200) saves a little, and goes 1-3-4.
