This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB Bets Today: Expert MLB Picks for
Monday, June 10

Given how well the Yankees have played this season, the market will have them overpriced and inflated as more and more public bettors join the bandwagon love affair. So, I have this game priced with the Royals as a –125-favorite, but the current market is providing an exceptional price tag of a 115-underdog to bet on the Royals. The total for this game is lined at 8.5 runs, with bettors taking the Over getting +100 juice. 

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Who Are the Starters? 

The Royals have Seth Lugo, who has an AL-best nine wins and 11 quality starts in 13 starts this season. He is tied with the Toronto Blue Jays' Jose Berrios with 11 quality starts or 85 percent quality-start percentage. The Phillies' Ranger Suarez leads MLB with 10 wins, but a much lower 62 percent quality-start rate.  

In his last start, Lugo received a no-decision as he pitched six innings, allowing five earned runs – including two home runs – in an 8-5 team road loss to the Guardians. For the season he is 9-1 with a 2.24 ERA and a 1.032 WHIP, including an excellent K:BB ratio of 71:19. Over his last three starts he is 2-0 with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.158 WHIP, but has had control issues recording six walks spanning 19 innings of work.  

The Yankees will give the ball to Carlos Rodon, who is 8-2 in 13 starts with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.0698 WHIP, including 71 strikeouts and just 20 walks. Over his last three starts, he is 3-0 with a 2.50 ERA and a 0.722 WHIP, including an excellent 16 strikeouts while walking just four batters spanning 19 innings of work. So, this is an elite pitching matchup that may come down to late-game heroics. 

The MLB Betting Algorithm for Monday 

The following MLB betting algorithm has earned an outstanding 68-39 good for 64-percent winning bets that have averaged a 108-wager earning a 22-percent ROI resulting and a $27,880 profit for the $1K per game bettor. The requirements are: 

• Bet on home teams that the market has the road team between a 125-dog and a 125-favorite. 
• That road team is from the AL. 
• The road is allowing 3.9 or fewer RPG in the current season. 
• That home team is an elite one, outscoring its opponents by 1.0 or more RPG in the current season. 

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The Player Prop Bets for Monday 

• Bet Over Corbin Burnes 2.0 or more earned runs allowed priced at –155. 
  • In June, the Over is 11-2 when Burnes is on the hill and the team is playing its fifth-or-more-consecutive road game. 
• Bet the Brewers' Colin Rea Under 2.5 earned runs allowed priced at –155. 
• Bet the Royals' Nelson Velazquez to hit a home run priced at +480. 

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