DraftKings MLB: Weekend Value Plays

DraftKings MLB: Weekend Value Plays

This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.

All player prices are as of Friday, August 21

Pitchers

Chris Bassitt, OAK (Fri. vs. TB), $6900 – Although he was never considered a top prospect, the 26-year-old Bassitt has been fantastic in his eight starts this season, posting a 2.44 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 3.13 FIP and 42:8 K:BB ratio over 51.2 innings, with at least 10 DraftKings points in every outing. He's also topped 17 DK points in four consecutive starts, despite facing a pretty dangerous slate of lineups – Baltimore twice, Houston once and Cleveland once – in those outings. Still carrying a discount price even with all the success, Bassitt draws a superb matchup Friday night at pitcher-friendly O.co Coliseum, facing a Tampa Bay team that ranks 28th in wOBA (.297) and 27th in strikeout rate (22 percent) against right-handed pitching this season.

Luis Severino, NYY (Sat. afternoon vs. CLE) – With just three games on the Saturday-afternoon slate, Severino figures to be a popular option, offering both salary relief and strikeout upside. He's lived up to his top-prospect billing thus far, posting a 3.18 ERA and 18:4 K:BB ratio through three starts (17 innings), highlighted by a showing of 20.7 DraftKings points in Toronto his last time out. He'll draw a considerably easier matchup this time around and is probably still a few starts away from carrying a price that's more reflective of his talent.

Joe Ross, WAS (Sat. night vs. MIL) – Surprisingly dominant until his last two starts, Ross was roughed up by the excellent San Francisco and Los Angeles lineups on a recent west-coast road trip that was a complete disaster for his team. He still owns a 3.86 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 54:9 K:BB ratio through 53.2 innings this season, supported by a 3.17 FIP and 13.4 percent swinging-strike rate. The rookie should bounce back in a big way during Friday's home outing, as he'll be facing a Milwaukee lineup that offers no left-handed pop outside of Adam Lind. Right-handed batters have posted a hideous .179/.193/.259 slash line against Ross this season, with a 33:1 K:BB ratio in 116 plate appearances. Yes, the sample size is small, but the extent of the dominance is still pretty remarkable.

Kevin Gausman, BAL (Sun. vs. MIN) – Though far from consistent, Gausman has shown some promising signs in his nine outings since joining the starting rotation, posting a 45:12 K:BB ratio, 3.90 FIP and 1.18 WHIP in 54.1 innings, which has been somewhat obscured by a 4.47 ERA and 1-5 record. Of course, he probably won't fly under the radar for much longer, as his combination of pedigree, price and recent performance (15+ DK points in four of his last five starts) is very difficult to find. Despite being roughed up by Minnesota shortly before the All-Star break, Gausman should enjoy Sunday afternoon's matchup, facing a lineup that ranks 24th in wOBA (.302) and 22nd in strikeout rate (20.9 percent) against right-handed pitchers this season. It is a high-variance matchup, as the Twins struggle to make contact versus righties but don't lack for power.

Other options:Felix Hernandez, SEA (Fri. vs. CWS), $9900; Jimmy Nelson, MIL (Fri. at WAS), $8200; Gerrit Cole, PIT (Sat. afternoon vs. SF); Sonny Gray, OAK (Sat. night vs. TB); Carlos Martinez, STL (Sat. night at SD); Taijuan Walker, SEA (Sun. vs. CWS); Raisel Iglesias, CIN (Sun. vs. ARI)

Batters

1B Justin Bour, MIA (vs. PHI), $3100 – One of my favorite options for much of this summer, the 27-year-old Bour has gone through his ups and downs as an older rookie, but the total package (at least at the plate) has been far better than anyone expected. He owns a .250/.323/.431 slash line, with his .280 BABIP, 20.5 percent strikeout rate and 9.0 percent walk rate suggesting the production is sustainable. As a frequent occupant of the cleanup spot, he makes for a nice discount option almost anytime the Marlins face a vulnerable right-handed pitcher. Of course, I'm still not sure about his long-term viability in the majors, as he's remarkably slow even for a first baseman and may not be able to hit southpaws. Luckily, we're only worried about his short-term value for DFS.

2B/SS Andres Blanco, PHI (at MIA), $2000 – Neither a base-stealer nor a power hitter, Blanco is the type of player I typically try to avoid in tournaments, as a big night usually requires three or four hits. Of course, there are exceptions to every rule/guideline and Blanco checks off a number of the key categories. Most important, he's been batting toward the top of the Philadelphia lineup and carrying a minimum price tag, which alone makes him a decent punt option at a defense-first position. And while he's nothing more than a replacement-level player in the long run, Blanco has been oddly productive of late, entering Friday with three home runs and seven hits in his last 18 at-bats.

3B Manny Machado, BAL (vs. MIN), $4500 – Still going strong in his breakout offensive season, Machado owns career-best marks in every key rate stat, with a BABIP (.315) that's right in line with expectations. He doesn't draw any matchups that jump off the page this weekend, but his price tag is favorable and the Minnesota rotation is far from intimidating. He'll also benefit from playing at Camden Yards, where he owns a .356 career wOBA (.327 on the road).

OF Jay Bruce, CIN (vs. ARI), $3600 – I'll be surprised if Bruce doesn't hit at least one long ball this weekend, as the Reds will face right-handers Rubby De La Rosa, Randall Delgado and Chase Anderson at homer-happy Great American Ballpark. Not only is that an unintimidating group of pitchers, but also it's a group with a history of struggling to keep the ball in the yard. Though often a disappointment so far in 2015, Bruce has the right combination of matchup and price this weekend, making him arguably the best value of any outfielder.

OF Jason Bourgeois, CIN (vs. ARI), $2000 – With Billy Hamilton (shoulder) hitting the disabled list, Bourgeois started in center field and batted leadoff both Wednesday and Thursday. The former No. 4 overall draft pick is obviously a bust and still hasn't shown any real potential, but his combination of lineup position and base-stealing ability make him a fantastic min-price play. He should also benefit from facing the weak Arizona pitching staff, and while he won't have the platoon advantage at the plate, matchups against right-handers should make it easier for him to steal bases. That being said, I'll still only be interested if he stays at the top of the lineup.

OF Curtis Granderson, NYM (at COL), $4800 – I'll avoid Granderson and the other left-handed bats Saturday against Chris Rusin, but the weekend should otherwise bring big returns, with the Mets facing one right-hander who is on a strict pitch count (Jon Gray – Fri.) and another who just stinks (David Hale – Sun.). This is a bigger deal for some of the platoon guys, notably Kelly Johnson, but Granderson should also benefit from the fact that Colorado has an all-righty bullpen.

Other options:C Russell Martin, TOR (at LAA), $3200; 1B Anthony Rizzo, CHC (vs. ATL), $4900; 2B/OF Chris Coghlan, CHC (vs. ATL), $3300; 2B/3B Daniel Murphy, NYM (at COL), $4300; 3B Adrian Beltre, TEX (at DET), $3700; 3B/OF Kelly Johnson, NYM (at COL), $3500; OF Curtis Granderson, NYM (at COL), $4800; OF Marcell Ozuna, MIA (vs. PHI), $3100; OF Jeff Francoeur, PHI (at MIA), $2800

Lineup Stacks

Friday

Tigers vs. TEX's Colby Lewis
Orioles vs. TB's Tommy Milone
Astros vs. LAA's Brett Anderson
Reds vs. ARI's Rubby De La Rosa
Rockies vs. NYM's Bartolo Colon
Mets at COL's Jon Gray
Marlins vs. PHI's Jerad Eickhoff
Diamondbacks at CIN's David Holmberg

Saturday afternoon

Yankees vs. CLE's Danny Salazar
Cubs vs. ATL's Williams Perez
Pirates vs. SF's Chris Heston

Saturday night

Rangers at DET's Randy Wolf
Reds vs. ARI's Jeremy Hellickson
Marlins vs. PHI's Aaron Harang
Rockies vs. NYM's Jon Niese

Sunday

Orioles vs. MIN's Mike Pelfrey
Cubs vs. ATL's Matt Wisler
Mariners vs. CHW's John Danks
Mets at COL's David Hale

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jerry Donabedian plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: jd0505, DraftKings: jd0505.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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