DraftKings MLB: Weekend Value Plays

DraftKings MLB: Weekend Value Plays

This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.

All player prices are as of Friday, July 10

Pitchers

Clay Buchholz, BOS (Fri. vs. NYY), $6900 – Even accounting for the ballpark and opponent, this is a ridiculously cheap price for a pitcher of Buchholz's caliber. The Yankees smacked him around for 10 runs back in April, but he's otherwise enjoying arguably the best season of his career, with his 3.27 ERA and 1.19 WHIP backed by a 104:23 K:BB ratio, 2.54 FIP, 3.15 xFIP and 3.16 SIERA through 110 innings. Furthermore, his swinging-strike (10.7 percent) and contact (78.4 percent) rates are the best he's ever posted in a season of 100+ innings, suggesting the impressive strikeout total is no fluke. The Yankees have a tough lineup that features a slew of talented left-handed hitters, and while that may warrant a price reduction, the $1600 drop from Buchholz's previous start seems a bit drastic.

Jake Odorizzi, TB (Sat. afternoon vs. HOU) – Odorizzi (oblique) should enjoy his first start back from the disabled list, as he'll be facing MLB's most strikeout-happy lineup in his pitcher-friendly home park. He's also been underpriced all season, and there's nothing to suggest the trend will change Saturday, especially in the wake of an extended absence. Odorizzi quelled any concerns about his injury with a strong rehab stint, allowing just one run over 9.2 innings for High-A Charlotte, most recently tossing 5.2 shutout innings Monday night. He probably won't go past 100 or so pitches Saturday afternoon, but he shouldn't need more than five or six innings to provide a favorable return on his price.

Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS (Sat. night vs. NYY) – I don't mean to pick on the Yankees' excellent lineup, but the Boston starters this weekend offer a nice combination of salary relief and strikeout upside. Rodriguez probably isn't the guy you want for cash games or 50/50s, but he's an ideal GPP target for a Saturday night slate that otherwise lacks attractive pitching options. Despite facing a hellish schedule thus far, Rodriguez has a 3.69 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 44:15 K:BB ratio through 46.1 innings and eight starts. Best of all, he's averaging 17.1 DraftKings points per game, yet he probably won't cost more than $7000.

Johnny Cueto, CIN (Sun. at MIA) – Coming off an 11-K, complete-game shutout of the Nationals, Cueto will face another injury-decimated lineup, only this one doesn't even have Bryce Harper propping it up. The Miami lineup gets pretty ugly without Giancarlo Stanton, and while that may bring about DFS opportunities for the likes of Justin Bour, it also makes the Marlins an excellent team to target when selecting pitchers. I'm mildly concerned that Cueto has thrown 110+ pitches in three consecutive starts, but it's not a big enough worry to erase everything else that's working in his favor.

Other options:Michael Pineda, NYY (Fri. at BOS), $8100; Danny Salazar, CLE (Fri. vs. OAK), $8900; Noah Syndergaard, NYM (Fri. vs. ARI), $8300; Madison Bumgarner, SF (Fri. vs. PHI), $11,100; Chris Sale, CWS (Sat. afternoon at CHC); Jon Lester, CHC (Sat. afternoon vs. CWS); Ryan Vogelsong, SF (Sat. night at HOU); Jake Arrieta, CHC (Sun. vs. CWS); Corey Kluber, CLE (Sun. vs. OAK); Chris Heston, SF (Sun. vs. PHI)

Batters

C Yasmani Grandal, LAD (vs. MIL), $4100 – I'm a fan of all the Dodgers' big bats this weekend, with the Brewers heading to Los Angeles behind the underwhelming trio of Jimmy Nelson (Fri.), Taylor Jungmann (Sat.) and Kyle Lohse (Sun.). That's particularly good news for any Dodgers that bat left-handed, even more so for a guy like Grandal, who has a .946 OPS against righties but barely plays against lefties. With 14 homers and nearly as many walks (40) as strikeouts (49), the 26-year-old has firmly (and finally) established himself as one of the elite batters at his position.

1B Justin Bour, MIA (vs. CIN), $3200 – Seemingly entrenched as Miami's cleanup hitter in the absence of Giancarlo Stanton (hand), the 27-year-old Bour has been surprisingly productive, thus far posting a .256/.337/.487 slash line in 175 plate appearances despite owning a .275 BABIP. His minor-league track record suggests he won't actually be this good, but it increasingly appears that Bour is at least a solid starting first baseman. Until his price comes up toward $4000, he'll be an excellent play against non-elite, right-handed pitchers

3B Manny Machado, BAL (vs. WAS), $4200 – It's starting to feel like Machado's hot streak may just be permanent, as he's been an absolute terror for six straight weeks now. The traditional and advanced stats confirm that he's a much better hitter than in past seasons, vaulting the 23-year-old into the discussion for best player in all of baseball. The other guys in that discussion carry price tags north of $5000, while Machado's oddly sits at $4200 entering a home series with the Nationals. Matchups against Gio Gonzalez (Fri.), Jordan Zimmerman (Sat.) and Doug Fister (Sun.) aren't ideal, but they also aren't nearly as bad as the name recognition might seem to suggest.

SS Troy Tulowitzki, COL (vs. ATL), $4700 – I often try to avoid Tulowitzki in GPPs, as his ownership percentage is almost always in double digits unless the Rockies are facing a top pitcher. Of course, there's a good reason he's such a popular choice, and it'll probably make sense to go with the chalk this weekend. The shortstop position isn't exactly teeming with value, so Tulo stands out as a bargain with his modest-for-his-standards $4700 price tag, despite being the most expensive option. Even in a down season, he's averaging 8.4 DK points per game at Coors Field.

1B/OF Ben Paulsen, COL (vs. ATL), $3200 –Thanks to his solid work at Coors Field and outfield eligibility, Paulsen is essentially an auto-play when the Rockies face a right-handed pitcher at home. Long term, he probably doesn't have the bat to hold down a regular spot at first base, or the glove to hold down a regular spot in the outfield. We'll let Paulsen and the Rockies worry about those problems, as there's no way anyone can complain about getting a decent mid-lineup hitter at Coors Field for just $3200.

OF Joc Pederson, LAD (vs. MIL), $3700 – Recent performance matters in baseball more than in other sports, but there's still a limit to how much weight we can place on the latest results. Pederson is 2-for-26 with eight strikeouts over his last seven games, but at this price, and with these upcoming matchups, I probably wouldn't care if he were 0-for-26 with 26 strikeouts. He already has 20 homers, he bats at the top of an excellent lineup, and he'll have the platoon advantage against lousy/mediocre pitchers all weekend.

Other options:C Matt Wieters, BAL (vs. WAS), $3100; 1B C.J. Cron, LAA (at SEA), $3200; 2B Brian Dozier, MIN (vs. DET), $4500; 2B Rougned Odor, TEX (vs. SD), $4100; 3B Nolan Arenado, COL (vs. ATL), $4600; 3B/OF Kelly Johnson, ATL (at COL), $3600; 3B/SS Xander Bogaerts, BOS (vs. NYY), $3700; SS Francisco Lindor, CLE (vs. OAK), $3100; OF Charlie Blackmon, COL (vs. ATL), $4600; OF Yasiel Puig, LAD (vs. MIL), $4000; OF Adam Jones, BAL (vs. WAS), $3900; OF Clint Robinson, WAS (at BAL), $2700

Lineup Stacks

Friday

Orioles vs. WAS's Gio Gionzalez
Twins vs. DET's Justin Verlander
Tigers at MIN's Ervin Santana
Rangers vs. SD's Ian Kennedy
Indians vs. OAK's Kendall Graveman
Blue Jays at KC's Danny Duffy
Astros at TB's Erasmo Ramirez
Padres at TEX's Wandy Rodriguez
Nationals at BAL's Chris Tillman

Saturday afternoon

Rockies vs. ATL's Matt Wisler
Blue Jays at KC's Chris Young
Tigers at MIN's Phil Hughes

Saturday night

Dodgers vs. MIL's Taylor Jungmann
Indians vs. OAK's Chris Bassitt
Giants vs. PHI's David Buchanan
Rangers vs. SD's James Shields
Padres at TEX's Colby Lewis

Sunday

Braves vs. COL's Chad Bettis
Twins vs. DET's Shane Greene
Brewers at LAD's Brett Anderson
Dodgers vs. MIL's Kyle Lohse
Red Sox vs. NYY's Nate Eovaldi
Giants vs. PHI's Chad Billingsley
Astros vs. TB's Matt Moore

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jerry Donabedian plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: jd0505, DraftKings: jd0505.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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