This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Offense could reign supreme across the majors Sunday afternoon based on the lack of quality starting pitching available for the main slate on DraftKings. Paying up for bats could be the best route to take, so let's examine the matchups and see which options stand out.
Pitching Overview
The A's must be pleased by the start that Frankie Montas ($8,400) is off to. His numbers have improved pretty much across the board with his 3.73 xFIP, 1.29 WHIP and 21 percent strikeout rate over his first six starts. He's throwing more first-pitch strikes and has seen his swinging strike rate jump from 8.6 percent last year to 10.1 percent this season. With a favorable matchup against a Pirates team that is tied for the second-fewest runs (104) in the league, he could provide excellent value.
Speaking of players facing horrible lineups, Julio Teheran ($9,000) will be doing just that when he starts against the Marlins. As ugly as things have been for the Pirates, the Marlins have been even worse by scoring the fewest runs (90) and recording the lowest OPS (.607). Even though Teheran is not off to a great start with a 4.18 xFIP, his career-high 12 percent swinging strike rate has helped him rack up strikeouts at a much improved rate. This is a great spot to add him to your entry.
Honestly, it's hard to get excited about any pitcher outside of Montas and Teheran. With Juan Soto (back) hitting the IL on Saturday, Zach Eflin ($8,800) might be worth taking a chance on against the Nationals. Their lineup is a shell of itself with Soto, Trea Turner (finger), Anthony Rendon (elbow) and Ryan Zimmerman (foot) all out. When Eflin faced them earlier this season, he recorded nine strikeouts across five scoreless innings.
Key Values/Chalk
Not only is the A's starting pitcher worth considering Sunday, but it could also be a wise move to key in on their lineup. They will face Jordan Lyles, who's 4.43 xFIP indicates he's not pitching nearly as well as his 2.42 ERA would lead you to believe. He did have one start in which he recorded 10 strikeouts across six innings against the Cubs, but he only has a total of 16 strikeouts over his other 20 innings. That's not shocking considering his career 16.4 percent strikeout rate.
With Carlos Rodon (elbow) out of action, the White Sox are forced to add Dylan Covey to their starting rotation. He was pretty much a failed starter last season, recording a 1.49 WHIP and a 16.8 percent strikeout rate across 121.2 innings. With the Red Sox having the luxury of facing him Sunday, expect their hitters to appear towards the top of the ownership leaderboard.
The Indians didn't do much to help their lineup during the offseason in part because they thought they could rely on their stellar starting rotation. However, things are dicey now that Corey Kluber (forearm) and Mike Clevinger (back) are on the IL. Cody Anderson will be taking his first turn in the rotation Sunday in what will actually be his first appearance in the majors since 2016. He's recently missed time while recovering from Tommy John surgery, so he might not be able to pitch that many innings. This is a prime spot to deploy the Mariners lineup in DFS.
Stacks
Athletics vs. Lyles (Pirates)
Khris Davis (OF - $4,300), Matt Chapman (3B - $4,900), Marcus Semien (SS - $4,300)
The normally destructive Davis has now gone 17 straight games without a home run, hitting 12-for-62 (.194) with a 31 percent strikeout rate during that stretch. However, he has recorded two hits in two of his last three games and the positive to come out of his slump is that his price has dropped considerably. With his power upside, he's worth considering for an A's stack. Chapman is a great option, especially since he's reduced his strikeout rate from 23.7 percent last year to 12.4 percent this season. While he doesn't carry the same power upside that Davis and Chapman do, Semien has also shown an improved eye at the play this year, helping him record a .354 wOBA.
Red Sox vs. Covey (White Sox)
Mookie Betts (OF- $5,300), Andrew Benintendi (OF - $4,600), Mitch Moreland (1B- $4,300)
Any Red Sox stack should be built around Betts. After a slow start, he's 23-for-58 (.397) with three home runs and six doubles across his last 15 games. He also has 11 walks compared to just seven strikeouts during that stretch. Covey has allowed a career .352 wOBA against left-handed hitters, making Benintendi and Moreland great running mates for Betts. Benintendi has certainly thrived in this series with three straight multi-hit games.
Mariners vs. Anderson (Indians)
Mitch Haniger (OF - $4,900), Daniel Vogelbach (1B- $4,800), Jay Bruce (OF - $4,900)
After getting off to a blistering start, the Mariners have come back to the pack. They have several slumping hitters, including Haniger, who is just 11-for-59 (.186) over his last 15 games. His increased strikeout rate this year is alarming, but he's still one of the best hitters on the team, making him a viable option against the underwhelming Anderson. The key with this trio is their excellent power upside since each of them has an ISO of at least .259.
Brewers vs. Jason Vargas (Mets)
Lorenzo Cain (OF - $4,600), Ryan Braun (OF- $4,600), Jesus Aguilar (1B - $3,900)
Vargas is normally someone to attack in DFS. He had trouble limiting base runners last year with a 1.41 WHIP and he's off to a bad start this season with a 6.31 xFIP. Rolling with right-handed hitters is the way to go against him since he allowed a .359 wOBA to righties last season. Cain hits lefties exceptionally well, posting a wRC+ of at least 159 against them in three of the last four seasons. The same can be said for Braun, who has a career 162 wRC+ against them. Aguilar checks in as a viable budget-friendly target after slugging three home runs over his last 17 plate appearances. As bad as his start has been, his .180 BABIP isn't helping his cause.
