This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Monday's nine-game slate is full of pitchers who are worthy of a look, including a sharp low-cost play or two. While that may leave less room for offense, there are a couple of struggling pitchers heading into good hitting environments that make for potential stack targets.
Pitching Overview
Gerrit Cole ($10,700) has tallied at least 28.2 DraftKings points in three of his last four starts. The Royals hover around the top-10 mark in the league in things like wOBA and ISO, which could make Cole a bit of a fade target at the elevated price.
Jacob deGrom ($10,200) likely restored the faith of fantasy players everywhere when he fired seven scoreless innings against the Reds. He will take on a Padres team that holds the highest strikeout rate in baseball (27 percent), making him someone to take a look at in both cash and GPPs.
Prospective owners will get a fairly substantial rebate on Max Scherzer ($10,000) when he takes his talents to Miller Park to battle the Brewers. While no one loves rostering hurlers in that ballpark, Scherzer should be seen as someone to use almost regardless of matchup at this price, as he enters the contest with a 33 percent strikeout rate and a 2.66 xFIP in 46.1 innings.
Blake Snell ($9,700) is coming off back-to-back drubbings at the hands of the Royals. The left-hander has had his issues keeping the ball in the yard in 2019 but still holds a 2.93 xFIP and a 33 percent strikeout rate in 31.1 frames. The D-Backs quietly own the highest wOBA and ISO in the league against southpaws this year, which could relegate Snell to more of a GPP play, especially given his recent struggles.
It will be extremely difficult to use Walker Buehler ($9,400) against the Braves due to the 5.22 ERA and 20 percent strikeout rate he holds in six starts this year.
Chris Paddack ($9,200) has shown himself to have a pretty reliable floor as well as a substantial ceiling in his first six major league starts. He draws a Mets offense that holds the second lowest wOBA in baseball over the last 14 days (500 plate appearances).
Cole Hamels ($9,000) gets the coveted start against the Marlins, who hold the second lowest wOBA in the league against left-handed pitching. Hamels has been excellent in 2019, using a 24 percent strikeout rate and an elite groundball rate to post a 3.19 ERA in 36.2 innings.
Marcus Stroman ($8,000) had been going strong prior to a blowup performance against the Angels but still holds a 2.20 ERA in seven starts. The Twins are far from an ideal DFS matchup, as they combine power with a high contact rate, but Stroman is still worth a look at this reduced price.
Martin Perez ($6,600) makes for an intriguing low-cost option in the other dugout. Perez can sometimes be seen as a stack target due to his low strikeout and high walk rate, but the 28-year-old has posted at least 16 points in three of his last four outings on the strength of a 10.6 percent swinging strike rate. It must be noted that most of Perez's numbers still leave something to be desired but he has shown himself to be well worth a GPP play as one of the cheapest options on the slate.
Josh Smith ($4,000) could draw some eyes facing the Orioles, but he isn't expected to be used for more than 12-15 outs, which makes him a bit risky to use even at this price.
Key Values
Mookie Betts ($5,500) and J.D. Martinez ($5,100) should be among the popular Red Sox against John Means, who holds an xFIP of 4.89 against right-handed hitters.
It may be the case that most of Washington's starting nine are on the injured list but we can still take a look at Adam Eaton ($4,600) against Jhoulys Chacin. Chacin has walked more left-handed batters than he has struck out this season, which has contributed to a 7.30 xFIP in 15.1 innings.
Jakob Junis has been hammered by lefty hitters this year, as evidenced by the .564 slugging percentage he has allowed in 17.2 innings. Meanwhile, Michael Brantley ($4,900) has been on a tear against right-handed pitching, logging a .267 ISO and .414 wOBA against his opposite hand in 101 at-bats.
Brandon Lowe's ($4,800) .411 wOBA against right-handed pitchers should play well against Merrill Kelly, who features mediocre walk and strikeout rates and has allowed a .448 slugging percentage to lefty batters this year.
Eduardo Escobar ($4,700) has stung southpaws to the tune of a .280 ISO and a .479 wOBA in 50 at-bats this season. He could be a nice scarcity play to try and take advantage of Snell's issues with the long ball.
Freddie Freeman ($4,700) hasn't been hitting for as much power as we would like against right-handers but the .371 wOBA he carries makes him well worth a target against a Walker Buehler that seems to have lost the ability to get consistent punchouts.
Now seems like a good time to get back on board the Bryce Harper ($4,500) train. For all the (appropriate) talk of a slump, Harper has still notched a .209 ISO against right-handed pitchers this year. He will face a hurler in Miles Mikolas who has allowed five homers to left-handed hitters in just 17 innings.
Kyle Schwarber ($3,900) could get himself back on track against a pitcher like Sandy Alcantara, who has logged a 5.70 xFIP against lefty hitters in 21.1 frames this year.
Stacks
Phillies vs. Miles Mikolas (Cardinals)
Bryce Harper (OF - $4,500) Cesar Hernandez (OF - $3,800) J.T. Realmuto (C - $4,300)
It's a bit of a shame that the Phillies don't have more left-handed hitters to take full advantage of Mikolas but the 30-year-old has also allowed a .462 slugging percentage against right-handed batters in 23 innings.
Nationals vs. Jhoulys Chacin (Brewers)
Adam Eaton (OF - $4,600) Howie Kendrick (2B - $4,700) Carter Kieboom (SS -$3,900)
Ditto for the Nationals against Chacin, except in this case the surface numbers actually show worse performance against righties. This could be helpful for Kieboom, who has logged a .214 ISO in 28 at-bats against righty pitching despite struggling overall this season.
D-Backs vs. Blake Snell (Rays)
Eduardo Escobar (3B/SS - $4,700) Christian Walker (1B – $4,400) Wilmer Flores (1B/2B – $3,700)
We leave off with a GPP stack to try and capitalize on Snell's recent issues. All three hitters have shown a modicum of power against lefty hurlers, which could make this a sneaky contrarian play.
