This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
We have a full Monday slate, which encompasses 10 games and 20 teams. Even given the plentiful options, the available pitching is fairly top-heavy. That type of slate means two things. First, it puts a lot of pressure on value bats and stacks for those playing cash game contests. For those playing in tournaments, it makes correctly identifying the low-priced pitching options with upside particularly important to build in a contrarian way.
Pitchers
Framber Valdez ($10,700) isn't the traditional ace pitcher, but he has a 2.80 SIERA, nearly half a run lower than the next-best mark. That said, he's rightfully the top-priced pitcher, particularly after taking into account the matchup. Valdez and the Astros will take on the Cubs at home. Chicago has been a slightly above-average offense this season, but overall they aren't enough to make me shy away from Valdez.
Sticking in the relatively high price points, Freddy Peralta ($9,000) brings a 27.1 percent strikeout rate into Monday's matchup against St. Louis. The Cardinals' offense has performed well this season – in contrast to their pitching – but in addition to his high strikeout rate, he also has the benefit of working at pitcher-friendly Busch Stadium.
In a battle of results versus skill, Michael Wacha ($7,800) is an interesting option Monday. He's averaged a respectable 12.2 DK points per start this season, and he's ripped performances of 12.3, 16.5 and 19.9 DK points in each of his last three outings. However, he owns a 4.86 SIERA and a below-average 11.2 K-BB%. It could be the matchup to test your luck, as Wacha will draw a Royals' offense that has an 87 wRC+ and .302 wOBA for the season.
Jameson Taillon ($7,500) is in the same price tier as Wacha but presents the opposite profile. He's had mediocre surface results through five starts this season, but he has strong skills. His 28.1 percent strikeout rate and 3.57 SIERA both rank third among available arms. He has a tough matchup against the Astros but still looks to be mispriced.
That's about as adventurous as we can safely recommend getting at pitcher, though there is one punt play to at least consider in Dane Dunning ($6,300). He has a tough matchup against Atlanta, but he has recent performances in which he's posted 22.6, 15.5 and 19.3 DK points. The matchup and his inconsistencies make him best-suited for large-field tournaments, where he'd certainly open up a lot of salary to pay up for some of the top-hitting options.
Top Hitters
Arizona hitters figure to be popular Monday due to their relatively low cost as well as their matchup against the Athletics and Drew Rucinski. The lineup isn't full of traditional power hitters that rack up DK points with one swing, but one exception is Christian Walker ($4,500). After a relatively slow April, Walker has five home runs halfway through May and is priced to roster given the general outlook of the slate.
We can copy and paste the first half of the analysis of Walker, because the Padres draw a matchup against Brad Keller, who has objectively been a disaster this season. There are any number of potential options in the San Diego lineup, but why not go for the best in Fernando Tatis ($5,800).
Value Bats
The Blue Jays have stuck with Brandon Belt ($2,200) through significant early-season struggles. He's started to pay that faith off by maintaining a 1.057 OPS across his last 10 matchups – good for 7.8 DK points per game. He and Jays will take on Jhony Brito, who has served up 1.7 HR/9 while also maintaining only a 5.8 K-BB%.
Matt McLain ($2,000) will be called up for his big-league debut for Monday's game after absolutely demolishing his competition at Triple-A Louisville (.496 wOBA, 191 wRC+). Presumably, they're calling him up to play, and his first game will come at hitter-friendly Coors Field.
Stacks to Consider
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Oakland Athletics (Drew Rucinski): Ketel Marte ($5,000), Corbin Carroll ($5,200), Christian Walker ($4,500)
This is the obvious stack of the day, primarily due to the matchup and relatively low cost. Rucinksi has a -4.1 K-BB% and has allowed 1.9 HR/9. That has all amounted to a 6.55 SIERA, unsurprisingly the highest mark of any pitcher on the main slate. Arizona doesn't have any individual standout power option or big name in the middle of the lineup, but they are above average in most team metrics (ISO, wOBA, wRC+). The team shifts its lineup around regularly, so players like Lourdes Gurriel ($3,900) and Dominic Fletcher ($2,400) could emerge as potential values. Expect this to be a chalky option.
San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals (Brad Keller): Fernando Tatis ($5,800), Juan Soto ($5,300), Manny Machado ($4,700)
This stack is expensive, but that serves an important purpose Monday. The obvious build given Monday's player pool is to pay up at pitching and then find value bats, and this stack would turn that in the opposite direction. As for the matchup, Keller joins Ruckinski with a negative K-BB% (-1.7%) and SIERA above 6.00 (6.18). He hasn't given up the same amount of home runs, but the Padres – while underperforming – are clearly capable of putting up runs in bunches.
