This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
It's a heavy Monday calendar, a nice change from the typical layout to begin the week. We have nine games with a lot of elite — or at least high-profile — names on the mound. One pitcher, in particular, is egregiously priced, and that's where we'll begin.
Pitchers
Typically I'll start this column by looking at the highest-priced pitchers on the slate, but someone has to explain to me why Julio Urias is priced at only $8,200 – the eighth-highest mark on the slate. He hasn't racked up strikeouts to begin the season, but he still has at least 20 DK points in three of his five starts this season. On Monday, he'll draw a matchup against the Pirates, who boast one of the weakest offenses in the league. There's also an extremely strong chance for him to earn a win.
There are two aces (priced appropriately) that I'm also willing to roster in Brandon Woodruff ($9,300) and Carlos Rodon ($10,000). Rodon has been among the most statistically dominant pitchers to begin the season, so his price tag is well earned. He faces Colorado, who has a decent offense but is less intimidating on the road. Meanwhile, Woodruff has had an up and down beginning to the season, but he squares off against a Cincinnati offense that has the second-highest strikeout rate in the league and second-lowest wOBA.
Paul Blackburn ($7,500) and Michael Pineda ($6,200) will square off against each other and offer some value at the position. As is indicated by the price, Blackburn has superior skills early on in the season, but the primary difference between the duo is the ability to limit home runs, something Pineda struggles to do. Detroit is among the best parks for home run suppression, which makes me a bit more comfortable rostering Pineda.
Top Hitters
Manny Machado ($5,700) has been one of the hottest hitters to start the season and faces off against Kyle Hendricks on Monday. Since the start of the 2021 season, Hendricks has allowed 1.6 HR/9. That's a good combination to target with a core piece of the lineup.
Luis Robert ($4,700) is the cheapest of the White Sox top hitters, and I want exposure to the team as they are squaring off against Zach Plesac. Plesac has only 16 strikeouts across 26.1 innings this season, meaning he is surrendering a lot of contact, and his dark blue Statcast page indicates that he's being hit hard.
Daulton Varsho ($3,800) isn't the stud hitter that Robert and Machado are, but Elieser Hernandez has coughed up at least one home run in four of his five starts this season and multiple homers on two occasions. Ketel Marte ($4,100) is also a viable option, but I'll opt for Arizona's leadoff hitter.
Value Hitters
Manuel Margot ($2,900) is hitting out of his mind and recorded double-digit DK points in seven consecutive starts. His price is very low simply given those results. Chasing hot streaks isn't a particularly sound strategy, but his price is minimal so it's not the most egregious scenario to chase points.
Humberto Castellanos will start for Arizona, and he has the sixth-lowest GB/FB ratio among the pitcher pool. He is also a contact-oriented pitcher, with a career 16.1 percent strikeout rate. That makes Miami players intriguing, and Avisail Garcia ($3,300) is extremely cheap thanks to a slow start to the season.
Alec Bohm ($3,400) has been hitting second in the Phillies' order, meaning he'll be surrounded by power hitters. This is a context play, particularly given the matchup against Chris Flexen – another pitcher that struggles to generate strikeouts.
Stacks to Consider
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chris Flexen: Kyle Schwarber ($5,600), Alec Bohm ($3,400), Bryce Harper ($5,900), Nick Castellanos ($4,300)
Let's stick with Philadelphia, a lineup that is among my favorite stacks on the slate. Flexen has shown the ability to suppress home runs, but otherwise has an uninspiring skills profile highlighted by only a 16.6 percent strikeout rate since the beginning of the 2021 season paired with a 4.71 SIERA. The top of the Philly order has gotten easier to stack thanks to Bohm being inserted at a cheap pierce and Castellanos' dip in cost.
San Diego Padres vs. Kyle Hendricks: Jake Cronenworth ($4,700), Ha-Seong Kim ($4,500), Manny Machado ($5,700), Eric Hosmer ($4,500)
As already mentioned, Hendricks has allowed 1.6 HR/9 since the start of the 2021 season and has only a 16.8 percent strikeout rate. He is probably my favorite pitcher to start on the slate, I just prefer the Philly stack because the top of their lineup has more firepower than that of the Padres. Price is also on the Phillies side, as the top of San Diego's lineup is priced aggressively.
Miami Marlins vs. Humberto Castellanos: Jazz Chisholm ($5,400), Jesus Aguilar ($4,000), Jorge Soler ($3,800), Joey Wendle ($3,600)
The virtues of targeting Castellanos were already discussed above. In addition to the matchup, I like the Marlins because it should allow some flexibility to target some of the highest-priced elite stacks such as the Dodgers or the two listed above.
