This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Thursday is all about day baseball. Only one game starts after 5 p.m. ET, and that game has been excised by DraftKings for the main DFS slate. That leaves us with nine matchups, the first of which starts at 1:05 p.m. ET. Here are my lineup recommendations.
Pitching
Justin Verlander, NYM at DET ($10,800): Verlander was a late addition to my recommendations after Atlanta pushed Max Fried's start a day. I'm not down with Dylan Dodd. This is Verlander's first start of the season, but he's a legendary pitcher facing his old team. The Tigers have perhaps the worst offense in baseball (and perhaps is doing some heavy lifting there). Honestly, I like Verlander third of my three recommendations, but I like him better than the other options.
George Kirby, SEA at OAK ($8,800): There was some mystery about who would start for the Mariners on Wednesday, but in the end Logan Gilbert got the start, leaving Kirby for Thursday. Fortunately, Kirby still gets to pitch against the Athletics in the pitcher-friendly ballpark in Oakland. The sophomore pitcher is no slouch, as in his MLB career he has a 2.84 FIP.
Grayson Rodriguez, BAL at KC ($8,300): The vaunted pitching prospect got off to a slow start, but he's allowed zero runs over his last two outings. Sure, they were both against the Tigers, but the Royals are barely better. Kansas City is in the bottom five in runs score and has a sub-.300 OBP as a team.
Top Targets
A healthy Byron Buxton ($5,600) is a power-hitting Byron Buxton. The guy has slugged .557 over his last five seasons, and he has seven home runs this season. Plus, he's stolen a couple bases recently, which is encouraging given the concern about his health. Lucas Giolito never became the pitcher many hoped, as he has settled into being a mediocre righty with a career 4.32 ERA who has seen his strikeout rate drop for four seasons in a row. I went with a righty hitter, because Giolito has actually kept lefties in check but has allowed righties to hit .268 against him since 2021.
Swiftly, Adley Rutschman ($5,200) has become arguably the top-hitting catcher in MLB. While he is a switch hitter, the young backstop has clearly shown a preference for facing righties, posting an .892 OPS in those matchups. The Orioles said goodbye to Jordan Lyles after he posted a 4.42 ERA in 2022. Well, now a Royal, the right-handed pitcher has a 6.11 ERA through six starts.
Bargain Bats
Brandon Lowe ($5,000) has his power stroke back. He'll never vie for a batting title, but when you have seven homers and have slugged .500, that's just fine. The Rays have really kept the southpaw away from lefties, which has helped his overall numbers. Since 2021, Lowe has an .853 OPS versus righties. I'm not buying into Vince Velasquez's numbers, and not just because he has a 3.80 FIP compared to a 3.06 ERA. No, it's because Velazquez is 30 and has a career 4.85 ERA. The righty has only allowed 0.84 homers per nine innings this year, below his career 1.48 number.
He doesn't show a lot of power, but Brendan Donovan ($3,500) has a good bat, as he has a career .281 average. Also, in his two seasons in MLB so far he's clearly preferred being in sight of the Gateway Arch. The lefty has an .899 OPS at home in his career. Griffin Canning has returned after missing the 2022 season, and while he has improved upon the 5.48 FIP he had in 2021, all that means is he has a 4.28 FIP in 2023.
Stacks to Consider
Cubs at Nationals (Patrick Corbin): Dansby Swanson ($4,800), Seiya Suzuki ($4,700), Patrick Wisdom ($4,600)
The Nationals continuing to trot out Corbin is either a "the definition of insanity" situation, or a team that is willing to wave the white flag once every five or six days. Over the last three seasons he has a 6.02 ERA. This year, he's allowed 1.72 home runs per nine while striking out a mere 6.03 batters per nine as well. Since 2021, righties have hit .313 against Corbin as well, so I am stacking three righties from the Cubs.
Swanson has a .295 average and .406 OBP, and he's finally shown a little power by hitting two home runs over his last seven outings. He's hit over 25 home runs in each of the last two seasons, so I expect the power to pick up. Suzuki has been hampered by injuries in his MLB career, but when he's played he's really performed well against lefties. The Japanese hitter has an .862 OPS versus southpaws in the majors. Speaking of hitting for power, Wisdom has 11 homers and has slugged .624. Since 2021, he has an .870 OPS versus lefties and an .855 OPS on the road.
Brewers at Rockies (Connor Seabold): Willy Adames ($6,000), Christian Yelich ($5,400), Rowdy Tellez ($5,000)
Seabold has been pitching out of the bullpen, but he is expected to start Thursday. Even pitching in relief, Seabold has a 5.27 ERA. He actually has a career 8.49 ERA, and that is with pitching for the Red Sox prior to this season. This game is at Coors Field, so I have to target the Brewers for a stack. I included two lefties, as in his career, Seabold has allowed lefties to hit, get this, .390 against him.
Adames has a lot of power for his position. He hit 31 home runs in 139 games last year and has five this season. While he's a righty, he's slugged .484 versus right-handed pitchers since 2021. Yelich isn't a power guy, but he had 14 homers and 19 stolen bases in 2022, and in 2023 he has three homers and five swiped bags. That being said, when he faces righties, he has a .369 OBP since 2021. Tellez is similar to Adames, in that he doesn't hit for average but has a lot of power. He had 35 homers last year and has eight this season, but he's also hit .258 this year, which is good for him. The lefty has slugged .482 against right handers since 2021 as well.
